Gamma rays

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Currently in production there is the Model X and Y which have 7 seats, though some would argue the 7 3rd is a joke. There are others slated to come out within the next year or so: VW, Mercedes, Lucid, and there's some in China (if any of those manufacturers can be sold in the US). Some of these might end up beating R1S to delivery.
I did think about getting the 7-seat MY, but I don't want play the "fit & finish" lottery. The MX is out of my budget and, IMHO, not worth price.

GR
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Friscorays

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Speaking of delays does anyone remember the Tesla Roadster revealed in 2017 and scheduled for production in 2022?

Here is an update from Elon Musk posted earlier today: "2021 has been the year of super crazy supply chain shortages, so it wouldn’t matter if we had 17 new products, as none would ship. Assuming 2022 is not mega drama, new Roadster should ship in 2023."

Should ship in 2023 and will ship in 2023 are of course two entirely different things. I think hover mode will take longer to implement than Elon thinks!
 

AndroidAppBundle

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This is why I estimate a 2023 delivery for.my R1S, and every customer reserving in 2021...will receive in Q2-Q3 2024. It is conservative enough for Rivian to really impress me.

I give them weeks...months of leeway. Whereas Rivian R1T LE customers are giving Rivian...minutes...hours....days to be impressed. If people really want to set themselves up for happiness; mentally condition yourself to believe your R1T LE will arrive by June 2022. You give them weeks...months...to impress you.

This mental trickery is the only way I can stop myself from further raging against the brands that I have waited on for years. The R1X models have lived so long in my head; I'm already ready for a model refresh.....



Speaking of delays does anyone remember the Tesla Roadster revealed in 2017 and scheduled for production in 2022?

Here is an update from Elon Musk posted earlier today: "2021 has been the year of super crazy supply chain shortages, so it wouldn’t matter if we had 17 new products, as none would ship. Assuming 2022 is not mega drama, new Roadster should ship in 2023."

Should ship in 2023 and will ship in 2023 are of course two entirely different things. I think hover mode will take longer to implement than Elon thinks!
 
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GPowers

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Ok it is the first of September. How much of September will pass before the first customer delivery happens?
 

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This is why I estimate a 2023 delivery for.my R1S, and every customer reserving in 2021...will receive in Q2-Q3 2024. It is conservative enough for Rivian to really impress me.

I give them weeks...months of leeway. Whereas Rivian R1T LE customers are giving Rivian...minutes...hours....days to be impressed. If people really want to set themselves up for happiness; mentally condition yourself to believe your R1T LE will arrive by June 2022. You give them weeks...months...to impress you.

This mental trickery is the only way I can stop myself from further raging against the brands that I have waited on for years. The R1X models have lived so long in my head; I'm already ready for a model refresh.....
I have a fairly recent r1s pre-order and my mental timeframe actually is 2024 sometime.
 

flabyboy

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This is why I estimate a 2023 delivery for.my R1S, and every customer reserving in 2021...will receive in Q2-Q3 2024. It is conservative enough for Rivian to really impress me.

I give them weeks...months of leeway. Whereas Rivian R1T LE customers are giving Rivian...minutes...hours....days to be impressed. If people really want to set themselves up for happiness; mentally condition yourself to believe your R1T LE will arrive by June 2022. You give them weeks...months...to impress you.

This mental trickery is the only way I can stop myself from further raging against the brands that I have waited on for years. The R1X models have lived so long in my head; I'm already ready for a model refresh.....
I think you are overestimating the amount of preorders there actually are. I wouldn't be surprised if its 30-60k for preorders at this point. Tesla is on another level on the world stage. Q2-Q3 2024 would be a huge miss by Rivian.
 

emoore

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I think you are overestimating the amount of preorders there actually are. I wouldn't be surprised if its 30-60k for preorders at this point. Tesla is on another level on the world stage. Q2-Q3 2024 would be a huge miss by Rivian.
I just preordered 2 weeks ago. I'll post the exact date when I take delivery but I'm pretty sure AndriodAppBundle will be long gone on this forum when I get my truck by the end of 2022.
 

AndroidAppBundle

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In mid-2020, there were 56k pre-orders for R1X vehicles, and 100k Amazon vans. I imagine there are more pre-orders, but with maybe 75% of preorders converting to sales; it is maybe safe bet to assume at least 55-60k real pre-orders.

If I look at Tesla production numbers, apply the same growth to Rivian; I believe my timelines reset expectations in a way that allows Rivian to please me.

If I continue to be impatient and set unrealistic timelines, I set myself up for disappointment.

Further reality check for me is;
- Normal plant is 2 assembly line, but one is reserved for Amazon vans. This means only 1 production line for 2 vehicles. So I can’t tell myself oh big plant oh two assembly lines - this wont take long at all
- April 2021, Rivian is quoted saying they were capable of producing about 1 R1X vehicle per day. This indicates some severe shortages or lack of available components
- Chip shortages
- battery shortages (every company in the world is gobbling up battery inventory. There is only so much immediate production capacity. Sure 12-24-30 months from now will look different with this, but this isn’t changing overnight in the near turn
- Novice supply chain and demand planning (brand new company, hard to scale certain things, new staff)
- Staff shortages. Do math on Normal Illinois, and add up the largest employers in Normal IL. Then take the population and subtract people who can’t work (children, retired, disabled, etc). This isn’t a large area. There will be turnover. Not everyone wants to work in automotive industry.

I am sure there are other examples that can describe how difficult it is to manufacture goods right now. They could deliver 1 R1T per month from Sept 2021 until April 2022. Who knows.

I think you are overestimating the amount of preorders there actually are. I wouldn't be surprised if its 30-60k for preorders at this point. Tesla is on another level on the world stage. Q2-Q3 2024 would be a huge miss by Rivian.
 

AndroidAppBundle

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Nah. I’ll be waiting, until the end of time, for my Rivian R1S :)



I just preordered 2 weeks ago. I'll post the exact date when I take delivery but I'm pretty sure AndriodAppBundle will be long gone on this forum when I get my truck by the end of 2022.
 

flabyboy

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In mid-2020, there were 56k pre-orders for R1X vehicles, and 100k Amazon vans. I imagine there are more pre-orders, but with maybe 75% of preorders converting to sales; it is maybe safe bet to assume at least 55-60k real pre-orders.

If I look at Tesla production numbers, apply the same growth to Rivian; I believe my timelines reset expectations in a way that allows Rivian to please me.

If I continue to be impatient and set unrealistic timelines, I set myself up for disappointment.

Further reality check for me is;
- Normal plant is 2 assembly line, but one is reserved for Amazon vans. This means only 1 production line for 2 vehicles. So I can’t tell myself oh big plant oh two assembly lines - this wont take long at all
- April 2021, Rivian is quoted saying they were capable of producing about 1 R1X vehicle per day. This indicates some severe shortages or lack of available components
- Chip shortages
- battery shortages (every company in the world is gobbling up battery inventory. There is only so much immediate production capacity. Sure 12-24-30 months from now will look different with this, but this isn’t changing overnight in the near turn
- Novice supply chain and demand planning (brand new company, hard to scale certain things, new staff)
- Staff shortages. Do math on Normal Illinois, and add up the largest employers in Normal IL. Then take the population and subtract people who can’t work (children, retired, disabled, etc). This isn’t a large area. There will be turnover. Not everyone wants to work in automotive industry.

I am sure there are other examples that can describe how difficult it is to manufacture goods right now. They could deliver 1 R1T per month from Sept 2021 until April 2022. Who knows.
The latest quote was a potential of one vehicle every 4 mins in Normal. Do whatever you got to do to make yourself happy, but you will probably just be talking to yourself on here if you are always being the Debbie Downer.
 

Friscorays

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Ok it is the first of September. How much of September will pass before the first customer delivery happens?
From today, no more than 4 weeks.
 

Zoidz

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In mid-2020, there were 56k pre-orders for R1X vehicles, and 100k Amazon vans. I imagine there are more pre-orders, but with maybe 75% of preorders converting to sales; it is maybe safe bet to assume at least 55-60k real pre-orders.

If I look at Tesla production numbers, apply the same growth to Rivian; I believe my timelines reset expectations in a way that allows Rivian to please me.

If I continue to be impatient and set unrealistic timelines, I set myself up for disappointment.

Further reality check for me is;
- April 2021, Rivian is quoted saying they were capable of producing about 1 R1X vehicle per day. This indicates some severe shortages or lack of available components
This April 2021 quote has nothing to do with reality in September 2021. It does not in and of itself indicate "severe shortages or lack of available components." In April, they were hand building single vehicles as test mules. They have hired thousands of production line workers. They have shown videos of operating production line systems. They have allowed "outsiders" in the factory to see what's going on. Six months is a long time in bringing up a factory to production. Having worked in dozens of factory startup projects, I guarantee it's a different scenario than it was in April of 2021.
 

AndroidAppBundle

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RJ himself said they had shortages of components in July 2021


This April 2021 quote has nothing to do with reality in September 2021. It does not in and of itself indicate "severe shortages or lack of available components." In April, they were hand building single vehicles as test mules. They have hired thousands of production line workers. They have shown videos of operating production line systems. They have allowed "outsiders" in the factory to see what's going on. Six months is a long time in bringing up a factory to production. Having worked in dozens of factory startup projects, I guarantee it's a different scenario than it was in April of 2021.
 
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