johnbro23
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Rivian is targeting 40k production in its first "full year" which I assume is June 2021-May 2022, per a recent Bloomberg article. I think this is reasonable based on a few different frames of reference:
Frame 1, Employees: They have 1,100 employees in Normal as of April, targeting 1,800 by June, and 2,500 by end of 2021. Tesla has 10k employees at Fremont (assembly) and 7k in Nevada (battery and drivetrain) which combine for annual production capacity of 600k which translates to ~500k net of downtime. Factoring in that Tesla is a well-oiled machine at this point vs Rivian with growing pains of more than doubling its employees in the next 9 months, I think the employee count of 2,500 (15% of Tesla) supports 40k (8% of Tesla) production for year 1.
Frame 2, Reservation count: Rivian had 30k reservations in Aug 2020, and likely almost 50k today. Tesla had 455k Model 3 reservations in Q3 17 when production started, and shortly thereafter in Q4'18, they said that only 25% of that quarter's deliveries went to reservation-holders, after delivering a cumulative 86k Model 3 units through Q3'18. It means they essentially fulfilled the reservation demand after <20% of reservations were fulfilled, meaning the vast majority canceled or delayed purchasing the vehicle. The Model 3 reservation fee was similar to Rivian at $1k, and lead time similar (reservations started 2-3 years before delivery), so Rivian only needs to deliver 10k units to fulfil to its reservation demand using that same 20% conversion rate.
Frame 3, size. Rivian's factory is plenty big at 2.6m SqFt vs Fremont+Nevada at 10m combined, enough for 125k in theory. But an empty building isn't hard.
Frame 4, machinery/equipment. Rivian's stamping press was installed and operational in Q1'20. Welding robots were on site in mid 2020 videos. Seems to be on track, but Rivian shares very little footage of the assembly line.
Frame 5, capital. Tesla had only $200m of cash when ramping their first "mass" program the Model S (after roadster) which reached a 20k annual run-rate after the 3rd quarter of operations. They had no clue what they were doing, and Elon pushed the envelope on manufacturing process. Rivian seems to be taking fewer chances with experimental production techniques. They also have raised a cumulative $10bn of cash, and can easily raise a few billion more.
Any different views out there?
Frame 1, Employees: They have 1,100 employees in Normal as of April, targeting 1,800 by June, and 2,500 by end of 2021. Tesla has 10k employees at Fremont (assembly) and 7k in Nevada (battery and drivetrain) which combine for annual production capacity of 600k which translates to ~500k net of downtime. Factoring in that Tesla is a well-oiled machine at this point vs Rivian with growing pains of more than doubling its employees in the next 9 months, I think the employee count of 2,500 (15% of Tesla) supports 40k (8% of Tesla) production for year 1.
Frame 2, Reservation count: Rivian had 30k reservations in Aug 2020, and likely almost 50k today. Tesla had 455k Model 3 reservations in Q3 17 when production started, and shortly thereafter in Q4'18, they said that only 25% of that quarter's deliveries went to reservation-holders, after delivering a cumulative 86k Model 3 units through Q3'18. It means they essentially fulfilled the reservation demand after <20% of reservations were fulfilled, meaning the vast majority canceled or delayed purchasing the vehicle. The Model 3 reservation fee was similar to Rivian at $1k, and lead time similar (reservations started 2-3 years before delivery), so Rivian only needs to deliver 10k units to fulfil to its reservation demand using that same 20% conversion rate.
Frame 3, size. Rivian's factory is plenty big at 2.6m SqFt vs Fremont+Nevada at 10m combined, enough for 125k in theory. But an empty building isn't hard.
Frame 4, machinery/equipment. Rivian's stamping press was installed and operational in Q1'20. Welding robots were on site in mid 2020 videos. Seems to be on track, but Rivian shares very little footage of the assembly line.
Frame 5, capital. Tesla had only $200m of cash when ramping their first "mass" program the Model S (after roadster) which reached a 20k annual run-rate after the 3rd quarter of operations. They had no clue what they were doing, and Elon pushed the envelope on manufacturing process. Rivian seems to be taking fewer chances with experimental production techniques. They also have raised a cumulative $10bn of cash, and can easily raise a few billion more.
Any different views out there?
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