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kurtlikevonnegut

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RJ seems like a much more "normal" dude (no offense to Elon, I know he has aspergers and what not), and Rivian seems like a way better place to work than Tesla ever was from what i've heard / read. So I wouldnt be surprised. Wasnt it Henry Ford who found out that Happy workers = More profits?
Everything you need to know about difference in personality can be found out by looking at the corporate leadership pictures on Rivian's website. Probably also helps that RJ is an engineer as opposed to a hacker/programmer.
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Playah

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Everything you need to know about difference in personality can be found out by looking at the corporate leadership pictures on Rivian's website. Probably also helps that RJ is an engineer as opposed to a hacker/programmer.
Dare I say RJ has a PhD from MIT? Yes he does.
 

_evtrk

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Is it possible that RJ has achieved far more in less time than Elon? Just thinking…
Hard comparison, Elon is running 4+ companies at the same time and has been successful a numbers of times before in other ventures, at this point in time i think its fair to say that the man cannot fail at anything he does or attempts to do. At the same time RJ has done a lot, but he's also been at it for a while and comes from a successful family background in engineering and manufacturing. I give them both credit because they both are good at what they do, and they know how to get the best people around them to make their businesses run. like the saying goes, "there's more than one way to skin a cat" same can be said for manufacturing. I wish them both luck and hope that their competition with each other can only lead to better innovation, we consumers are the winners in the end.
 
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Playah

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Hard comparison, Elon is running 4+ companies at the same time and has been successful a numbers of times before in other ventures, at this point in time i think its fair to say that the man cannot fail at anything he does or attempts to do. At the same time RJ has done a lot, but he's also been at it for a while and comes from a successful family background in engineering and manufacturing. I give them both credit because they both are good at what they do, and they know how to get the best people around them to make their businesses run. like the saying goes, "there's more than one way to skin a cat" same can be said for manufacturing. I wish them both luck and hope that their competition with each other can only lead to better innovation, we consumers are the winners in the end.
Good point. That’s why we feed off each other on this forum.
 

EVTrucking

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Right, so if they are starting mass production this week, you can assume that the ramp period including process refinement, training, and onboarding of new workers goes through the end of this CY, then it is feasible to start getting close to your optimal output by start of CY 22. If that's the case, output for CY 22 could very feasibly be 70,000 R1 models, which I would expect to be above and beyond the current pre-order outlay.
IMHO I think your estimate is hugely optimistic but I hope you are right.
 

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paariv

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This is true, but it is also worth noting that Rivian will be nowhere close to the scale of larger manufacturers who are really feeling the pinch of the semiconductor shortage. Take our 70k R1 units a year and compare that to 1.9 million Ford vehicles sold in the US in 2020: https://carsalesbase.com/us-ford/. Ford's entire drop in annual sales from 2019 to 2020 was around 300k units. Given the relatively lower volumes, I'm hoping Rivian can be nimble enough to mitigate supply chain constraints over the next couple of years.
I hope it's true that they can deal with supply chain constraints better. My worry is that Rivian is a drop in the bucket of suppliers compared to Ford/other big players. So Ford could say "We want 10X what they get, AND we get deliveries before anyone else" to all the major suppliers, who may agree to that because Ford is way more important to their business.
 

DucRider

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I hope it's true that they can deal with supply chain constraints better. My worry is that Rivian is a drop in the bucket of suppliers compared to Ford/other big players. So Ford could say "We want 10X what they get, AND we get deliveries before anyone else" to all the major suppliers, who may agree to that because Ford is way more important to their business.
On the flip side, where else is Ford going to go? What is their "or else" leverage?

Rivian can pay more per piece (15%?) and absorb that at their lower volume. More pure profit to the chip/part maker that can sell everything (and then some) that they produce.
 

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On the flip side, where else is Ford going to go? What is their "or else" leverage?

Rivian can pay more per piece (15%?) and absorb that at their lower volume. More pure profit to the chip/part maker that can sell everything (and then some) that they produce.
I also heard on NPR that some OEMs cancelled their chip orders in anticipation of a market slowdown. When the market picked back up and they placed their order again, they were at the back of the queue.

Hopefully Rivian didn't cancel any of their orders.
 

Temerarius

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This is true, but it is also worth noting that Rivian will be nowhere close to the scale of larger manufacturers who are really feeling the pinch of the semiconductor shortage. Take our 70k R1 units a year and compare that to 1.9 million Ford vehicles sold in the US in 2020: https://carsalesbase.com/us-ford/. Ford's entire drop in annual sales from 2019 to 2020 was around 300k units. Given the relatively lower volumes, I'm hoping Rivian can be nimble enough to mitigate supply chain constraints over the next couple of years.
Ding ding... winner winner chicken dinner.

While Rivian might have the capacity to hit the 70k marker, I doubt they have the ability to due to the chip shortage.
 

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IMHO, No comparison between RJ and Elon. I just can‘t imagine driving that Cyber Truck or looking at it in my driveway. Just my preference. Cyber Truck is like DeLorean on crack.
I agree, except that I think the cyber truck is like DeLorean on meth, just unattractive to my eyes.
 

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Jarico75

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I hope it's true that they can deal with supply chain constraints better. My worry is that Rivian is a drop in the bucket of suppliers compared to Ford/other big players. So Ford could say "We want 10X what they get, AND we get deliveries before anyone else" to all the major suppliers, who may agree to that because Ford is way more important to their business.
This would be a violation of Antitrust laws. Not saying it couldn't happen, but it is against the law to do.
 

paariv

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This would be a violation of Antitrust laws. Not saying it couldn't happen, but it is against the law to do.
Paying for priority is in low danger of being found to be anticompetitive.
 

EarlyAdptr

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Agree. Could easily be well into 2022 before they're anywhere near that pace. In fact, we have pretty good reason to believe they may not get there even by the end of 2022: RJ has said they will be supply constrained possibly into 2023. That implies they won't have the supply they need to build at full production capacity for a while.
I don't interpret his quote the same way. To me what that says is overall demand for Rivian vehicles will exceed Rivian's capability / capacity to produce said vehicles. Now, their 'constraint' on production might be due to sevral things, part supply being one of them. But it could also be that they get the plant up to 'full" production and need another (TX) plant to meet demand. Or it could be both and/or other factors (hiring / staffing as an example).

Bottom line- they will have difficulty meeting demand for their AWESOME products for some time. Just wait for them to release a sub $50k truck / suv (notionally mentioned, price point my pure speculation).
 

Autolycus

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This would be a violation of Antitrust laws. Not saying it couldn't happen, but it is against the law to do.
Definitely not anti-competitive to outbid your competition for material supplies in any context.
 

Jarico75

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Definitely not anti-competitive to outbid your competition for material supplies in any context.
Completely anti competitive to say deliver to me first before delivering to anyone else. Also, antitrust issues if you engage in price fixing. If chip maker A says chips are 100.00 and FORD says I will pay you 300 if you get me first and charge others more....... That is antitrust violation.
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