Playah

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Over 1500 career postings including these for 1st and 3rd shift stamping. Looks like they are ready to rumble!

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kurtlikevonnegut

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If they are running 24 hours and producing at the capacity that has been discussed (every 5 mins), that comes out to roughly 70,000 vehicles a year assuming 5 day weeks with 2 weeks for holidays. I would expect that to cover all existing preorders and their commitment for Amazon vans in 2022.
 

LagSwag1

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If they are running 24 hours and producing at the capacity that has been discussed (every 5 mins), that comes out to roughly 70,000 vehicles a year assuming 5 day weeks with 2 weeks for holidays. I would expect that to cover all existing preorders and their commitment for Amazon vans in 2022.
Yeah if they can get to that 5 minute, or even 4 minute number I have seen a few times, I think production is going to happen way faster than most people on here and elsewhere are projecting. I am cautiously optimistic. Rivian seems like they want things to be working and perfect before announcing anything, while most of us are used to the Elon Musk approach of announce first and build it later. I bet there are lots of stuff thats already been reviewed, or is currently being reviewed, under NDA that we dont know about, similar to the Motortrend stuff having been done months ago and just now coming out.
 

Autolycus

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If they are running 24 hours and producing at the capacity that has been discussed (every 5 mins), that comes out to roughly 70,000 vehicles a year assuming 5 day weeks with 2 weeks for holidays. I would expect that to cover all existing preorders and their commitment for Amazon vans in 2022.
FWIW, the vehicle per 5 minutes was just for the R1 line. Amazon vans are on their own line--which will also require its own labor, obviously. But I was mostly just responding to point out that 70k vehicles per year is doable for just the R1 line, with the Amazon van line producing more vehicles in addition to that R1 line number.
 

Friscorays

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I suspect it will take Rivian at least several months to ramp up to the one vehicle every 4 to 5 minute mark but I also suspect that speculation that all pre-order customers will have their vehicles by the end of 2022 is also correct.
 

Autolycus

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I suspect it will take Rivian at least several months to ramp up to the one vehicle every 4 to 5 minute mark but I also suspect that speculation that all pre-order customers will have their vehicles by the end of 2022 is also correct.
Agree. Could easily be well into 2022 before they're anywhere near that pace. In fact, we have pretty good reason to believe they may not get there even by the end of 2022: RJ has said they will be supply constrained possibly into 2023. That implies they won't have the supply they need to build at full production capacity for a while.
 

kurtlikevonnegut

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I suspect it will take Rivian at least several months to ramp up to the one vehicle every 4 to 5 minute mark but I also suspect that speculation that all pre-order customers will have their vehicles by the end of 2022 is also correct.
Right, so if they are starting mass production this week, you can assume that the ramp period including process refinement, training, and onboarding of new workers goes through the end of this CY, then it is feasible to start getting close to your optimal output by start of CY 22. If that's the case, output for CY 22 could very feasibly be 70,000 R1 models, which I would expect to be above and beyond the current pre-order outlay.
 

jessefive

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Agree. Could easily be well into 2022 before they're anywhere near that pace. In fact, we have pretty good reason to believe they may not get there even by the end of 2022: RJ has said they will be supply constrained possibly into 2023. That implies they won't have the supply they need to build at full production capacity for a while.
I think this is key. I really hope Rivian can ramp up quickly and surprise us all. But the supply chain issues are still there, and only time will tell. Till then fingers crossed!
 
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Playah

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FWIW, the vehicle per 5 minutes was just for the R1 line. Amazon vans are on their own line--which will also require its own labor, obviously. But I was mostly just responding to point out that 70k vehicles per year is doable for just the R1 line, with the Amazon van line producing more vehicles in addition to that R1 line number.
Good insight into Amazon van production as the posting does not differentiate what the “stampers” will be stamping. I’d like to believe they’re stamping my R1S right now.
 

eggpaul

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I wonder how many R1s they can produce each day at this moment.
 
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Playah

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Yeah if they can get to that 5 minute, or even 4 minute number I have seen a few times, I think production is going to happen way faster than most people on here and elsewhere are projecting. I am cautiously optimistic. Rivian seems like they want things to be working and perfect before announcing anything, while most of us are used to the Elon Musk approach of announce first and build it later. I bet there are lots of stuff thats already been reviewed, or is currently being reviewed, under NDA that we dont know about, similar to the Motortrend stuff having been done months ago and just now coming out.
Is it possible that RJ has achieved far more in less time than Elon? Just thinking…
 

LagSwag1

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Is it possible that RJ has achieved far more in less time than Elon? Just thinking…
RJ seems like a much more "normal" dude (no offense to Elon, I know he has aspergers and what not), and Rivian seems like a way better place to work than Tesla ever was from what i've heard / read. So I wouldnt be surprised. Wasnt it Henry Ford who found out that Happy workers = More profits?
 

sevengroove

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I think this is key. I really hope Rivian can ramp up quickly and surprise us all. But the supply chain issues are still there, and only time will tell. Till then fingers crossed!
This is true, but it is also worth noting that Rivian will be nowhere close to the scale of larger manufacturers who are really feeling the pinch of the semiconductor shortage. Take our 70k R1 units a year and compare that to 1.9 million Ford vehicles sold in the US in 2020: https://carsalesbase.com/us-ford/. Ford's entire drop in annual sales from 2019 to 2020 was around 300k units. Given the relatively lower volumes, I'm hoping Rivian can be nimble enough to mitigate supply chain constraints over the next couple of years.
 
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Playah

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RJ seems like a much more "normal" dude (no offense to Elon, I know he has aspergers and what not), and Rivian seems like a way better place to work than Tesla ever was from what i've heard / read. So I wouldnt be surprised. Wasnt it Henry Ford who found out that Happy workers = More profits?
IMHO, No comparison between RJ and Elon. I just can‘t imagine driving that Cyber Truck or looking at it in my driveway. Just my preference. Cyber Truck is like DeLorean on crack.
 
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