Rivian work week reduced to 2-3 days until inventory comes down

[BigSkies]

I


I still can not get why they need a second factory. With current level of demand they can produce both R1T and R2 in Normal and save a lot of money.

Normal is too small to get to cash flow positive. It can get them most of the way, but not all of the way.

Cash flow break even is probably in the neighborhood of 500k per year before the tariffs. More with tariffs.

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[Ralph]

People still get the same money they got 1onths ago. Tariffs has nothing to do with Rivian demand issues as well as LA fires. It is a véry nich product and people that want to pay 100k for the road car already bought what they wanted. R2 should be released this year and not in 2026.

It is true that this comes as the easiest R1 sales have been made and cheaper vehicles are not yet being delivered. No doubt, if R2 could be released this year, Rivian would do so. Why didn't RJ think of this? Perhaps you should wave your magic wand?

But do I read your first sentence correctly to mean that, "People still got the same money they got 1 month ago"?

If so, that is very much not the case. Many people no longer have the job they had days or weeks ago. Others perceive themselves as potential fodder for DOGE in coming months. More have reason to believe that a recession may be coming and THIER income/job will be affected.

Still others have seen a precipitous decline in their retirement savings and must start thinking more conservatively.

And let's not forget the business owner, who is having his customers put projects on indefinite hold due to the economic outlook.

By all accounts, these people (and everyone else) in Rivian's market will be paying more for virtually everything they purchase very soon. A perfect storm for everyone, not just Rivian.

Higher priced items, labeled luxury or not, always take a proportionally bigger hit when consumer confidence wanes, the economy softens, prices for components rise unexpectedly leading to higher prices, the market declines significantly, and/or the politics of the world take a de-stabilizing turn.

We have a President and congress who have managed to make all these things true in a very short period of time.

At Rivian's level of sales, it doesn't take all of those things to affect demand.

 

[McLovin]

I have 2 and would have 0 at current pricing.

Yeah, I got my R1T back in August. Pretty much nailed the best deal possible. In all honesty, I could afford one at today’s prices, but given the uncertainty of everything, I wouldn’t even consider it.

I’m just thankful both our vehicles are leases that have 2+ years remaining on them. Hopefully everything will settle down by then.

 

[malditofman]

It's tough on business and consumers when incompetent amateurs are doing their lunatic best to destroy the economy in multiple ways. Rivian's management is better than most. If any company can survive the current chaos and potential second great depression it's Rivian. Some never learn from history. It's as though the Hoover administration has been resurrected from the dead. Drive well.

 

[Weber462]

It kinda surprises me that there is not anyone on this board that works for rivian. Some updates would be nice.

 

[mkg3]

Its this ^^^

 

[jrothman]

Sure. But inventory doesn’t pile up in 48 hours.

After all, Rivian said it produced 14,611 vehicles at its manufacturing facility in Illinois and delivered 8,640 vehicles during the last quarter. That’s 500 cars a week
piling up.

I'm guessing that they stocked up ahead of the tariffs. Companies have been preparing for these tariffs for months. Rivian is no different. I find it reassuring that they got ahead of them.

 

[jrothman]

This is not good news at all.

Other companies are reportedly seeing sales jump as consumers rush to get ahead of tariffs. I’m surprised Rivian isn’t seeing this same effect.

The next year is going to be wild in the auto industry. Jaguar/Range Rover just announced they’re pausing shipments to the US. That will become permanent if some special deal isn’t cut. Other car makers will follow.

Demand for cars is probably going to drop dramatically this year, yet a whole bunch of supply will get pulled from the market too. It will end up dramatically unbalanced, but no one knows in which direction.

The R2 can’t come fast enough.

I also worry about the GA factory. Think about all of the capital equipment and tooling going in there. Not to mention simple steel. The cost of that factory probably just jumped maybe 20-30%.

In good news, their sales were ahead of analyst expectations.

 

[mkg3]

It is true that this comes as the easiest R1 sales have been made and cheaper vehicles are not yet being delivered. No doubt, if R2 could be released this year, Rivian would do so. Why didn't RJ think of this? Perhaps you should wave your magic wand?

But do I read your first sentence correctly to mean that, "People still got the same money they got 1 month ago"?

If so, that is very much not the case. Many people no longer have the job they had days or weeks ago. Others perceive themselves as potential fodder for DOGE in coming months. More have reason to believe that a recession may be coming and THIER income/job will be affected.

Still others have seen a precipitous decline in their retirement savings and must start thinking more conservatively.

And let's not forget the business owner, who is having his customers put projects on indefinite hold due to the economic outlook.

By all accounts, these people (and everyone else) in Rivian's market will be paying more for virtually everything they purchase very soon. A perfect storm for everyone, not just Rivian.

Higher priced items, labeled luxury or not, always take a proportionally bigger hit when consumer confidence wanes, the economy softens, prices for components rise unexpectedly leading to higher prices, the market declines significantly, and/or the politics of the world take a de-stabilizing turn.

We have a President and congress who have managed to make all these things true in a very short period of time.

At Rivian's level of sales, it doesn't take all of those things to affect demand.

This is lots of rationalizing...

JOLT, employment monthly and weekly unemployment numbers are all within the nominal range of the past year.

While it's true that the tone and the confidence has suffered, there is no hard data yet to substantiate the claim, other than the reaction to the the 4/2 announcement. We'll have to see how long that lasts and how quickly recovers. As someone who is retired and living off the equity investments, I am fully aware of the hit the market has taken.

Rivian's R1 sales decline had started last year. The demand for vehicles around $100k is not huge, including all vehicle types. Rivian only addresses a small percentage of a small market size.

R2 should have been prioritized sooner and cannot come fast enough for Rivian.

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

R2 should have been prioritized sooner and cannot come fast enough for Rivian.

The more fair criticism would be that Rivian should have planned on expanding the Normal plant for launch of R2 from the start. On the original roadmap for the Georgia facility they would already be ramping production of the R2 by now, so they did prioritize it. They were just unprepared for the blowback and damage that a few NIMBYs could do to their timeline.

 

[Donald Stanfield]

The more fair criticism would be that Rivian should have planned on expanding the Normal plant for launch of R2 from the start. On the original roadmap for the Georgia facility they would already be ramping production of the R2 by now, so they did prioritize it. They were just unprepared for the blowback and damage that a few NIMBYs could do to their timeline.

This. Rivian, being in as precarious of a position as they are, should have made the more conservative bet from the get go and expanded Normal for R2. Rivian has been consistent in its messaging that R2 would be the major income driver and as such it should have been prioritized as quickly as possible.

GA plant is more of a moonshot. The output of the Normal plant would have been enough to turn a profit, which would had helped bolster investor confidence. In turn Rivian would have had an easier time raising capital for the GA plant on their own fundamentals instead of hoping for a DOE loan that may or may not happen.

 

[SkiLizardHead2]

It's tough on business and consumers when incompetent amateurs are doing their lunatic best to destroy the economy in multiple ways. Rivian's management is better than most. If any company can survive the current chaos and potential second great depression it's Rivian. Some never learn from history. It's as though the Hoover administration has been resurrected from the dead. Drive well.

Agree - the Hoover Adm is being resurrected from the dead. Current adm need to look back at history - 1930 and the result.

 

[comtns]

It's conceivable that economic turmoil will prove an opportunity, if some existing plant becomes available for Rivian to buy and configure for R2/3 for less money than the Georgia plant would cost to build. Tesla uses its Fremont plant to this day, bought from Toyota I recall.

 

[Redline]

If high inventory is the reason for idling. It’s not a tariff issue. It’s a demand issue.

Have you seen the markets in the last few weeks? People shopping for $100k cars are directly hit.

 

[beyondgravity]

Talked to a Rivian assembly line employee yesterday. He said they are only working 2-3 days a week until inventory comes down. Not surprising, but not good to hear. Hopefully they can limp along until R2 production can get started.

Is this really true? What is the context? It may be true or absolutely bogus. So I will wait. I do think Rivian has an edge, given Tesla is not going anywhere from her.

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