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Rivian Head

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Carrying on with the Q1 EV production news, a few other observations:
  • EV9 and EV6 each sold around 4k; so the R1S outsold the EV9, even at a higher price point
  • EV9 is getting huge discounts from Kia until Apr 30, so maybe that changes in Q2
  • Ford sold ~20k, 7k of those F150s. More than the R1T, but not more than the R1 platform.
  • GM (all brands) sold ~16k, about 5k of those LYRIQs (cheaper than R1S, at least in Canada); so R1S likely outsold it too
  • So aside from Tesla with 17k, no one else is selling nearly as many as Rivian at the high price point
To me the above bodes well for continued success, and once the R2 is released... game on!
Nope, it does not bode well. All that means is that demand for EVs is waning as there are limited number of affluent early EV adopters. It also means that all except Tesla will continue to hemorrhage money making BEV. The fastest growing segment in the US has been hybrid market which tells us that US consumers do not feel ready to make the shift. These are very bad news for BEV makers. Unless consumers sentiment changes, perhaps by sub 30K EVs and better charging infrastructures, I see difficult road ahead for all BEV makers.
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Supratachophobia

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Nope, it does not bode well. All that means is that demand for EVs is waning as there are limited number of affluent early EV adopters. It also means that all except Tesla will continue to hemorrhage money making BEV. The fastest growing segment in the US has been hybrid market which tells us that US consumers do not feel ready to make the shift. These are very bad news for BEV makers. Unless consumers sentiment changes, perhaps by sub 30K EVs and better charging infrastructures, I see difficult road ahead for all BEV makers.
I just don't agree. I will *never* buy another gas vehicle, of any derivative thereof. And I will *never* buy another Tesla with Musk at the helm. I can't be the only one, and I have to believe there are enough of us that will need an R1 between now and R2 to keep the lights on for Rivian.
 

Rivian Head

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I just don't agree. I will *never* buy another gas vehicle, of any derivative thereof. And I will *never* buy another Tesla with Musk at the helm. I can't be the only one, and I have to believe there are enough of us that will need an R1 between now and R2 to keep the lights on for Rivian.
what’s important is not how you or I feel. I will never buy an ICE vehicle after owning Tesla and Rivian.
Unfortunately the data doesn’t support your position. It shows that EV demand has slowed down. All legacy automakers are pushing pause button. Kia EVs are fabulous vehicles that have garnered bunch of international awards, yet not selling. When tide goes out, all boats fall.
Overall ICE and hybrids sales were up Q1, hybrids are the fastest growing segment. I can’t imagine people will pick hybrids over BEVs. Hybrid is the combination of 2 worst parts of 2 drive trains. But perhaps dealerships are duping consumers?
 

BigBambu

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Good news, but not impressing investors, given today's stock price drop. Doesn't help Tesla missed deliveries consensus by so much --rising tide raises all ships lowering tide lowers all ships.
Headline in today's paper---

Tesla’s Sales Drop, a Sign That Its Grip on the E.V. Market Is Slipping
Sales of the company’s electric cars dropped in the first three months of the year, even as other automakers sold more battery-powered vehicles.

Actually, sales figures were just released recently that state Tesla was the only EV to lose market share in the past recent months. All other EV's, including Rivian, posted actual increases. Tesla is getting criticisms from all sides for letting their line up (less the cybertruck) get "stale" in the eyes of consumers.
 

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BigBambu

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I just don't agree. I will *never* buy another gas vehicle, of any derivative thereof. And I will *never* buy another Tesla with Musk at the helm. I can't be the only one, and I have to believe there are enough of us that will need an R1 between now and R2 to keep the lights on for Rivian.
Musk has poisoned Tesla to consumer segmant that he needs--affluent folks who love the environment and want to be "green". Why Musk did this I don't know but it sure makes me regret, a little anyway, my Tesla model Y.
 

the_akrish

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I still am hoping theres a plant reopening surprise... and we'll all be riding around in our R2s at the end of this year
 

Supratachophobia

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what’s important is not how you or I feel. I will never buy an ICE vehicle after owning Tesla and Rivian.
Unfortunately the data doesn’t support your position. It shows that EV demand has slowed down. All legacy automakers are pushing pause button. Kia EVs are fabulous vehicles that have garnered bunch of international awards, yet not selling. When tide goes out, all boats fall.
Overall ICE and hybrids sales were up Q1, hybrids are the fastest growing segment. I can’t imagine people will pick hybrids over BEVs. Hybrid is the combination of 2 worst parts of 2 drive trains. But perhaps dealerships are duping consumers?
I think it's deeper than that. I think we are seeing two things.

1. Market segmentation of the EV crowd over price. There a weird no man's land between 50k and 75k (happy to concede adjustments) where no one wants an EV. It's weird.

2. Limited market of consumers above the upper threshold above that enjoys their EVs so much they aren't jumping into new cars as often as ICE. But again, it's a finite consumer base to tap.
 

BigSkies

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I think the explanation is simpler than all the narratives about “no one wanting EV’s” and everyone’s opinion of Musk.

There’s a psychological cost of switching to a new technology with a learning curve. Most consumers would easily accept that cost when gas is $5 per gallon and interest rates are relatively low. They’re less interested in changing habits when gas is around $3/gallon and interest rates are relatively high.

We’re in the trough of disillusionment with EV’s for the US, but that doesn’t apply internationally. The future of the technology is fundamentally bright for any manufacturer that can scale beyond a level of sustainable production. I don’t know the exact threshold this happens at, but I’d guess it’s in the neighborhood of 500k units per year. There’s different believability thresholds for different manufacturers, but it’s going to be a lot easier for companies with a presence in Europe or China (EV market share 20%+ and climbing).
 

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Yellow5

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Let us not forget that in the end oil is a limited supply, and one that we are approaching at speed. The transition to EVs will happen. RIVIAN is primarily an American company, and at present in America there is a strong desire to avoid the path of progress when it comes to EVs. Lots of folks have a material stake in the success of ICE, they will vote with their feet and make a lot of noise doing it.

I find it pretty interesting as America has embraced change throughout its relatively short history more than it has bucked it. It is always painful to have change thrust upon you; I fear America might go through that scenario. RIVIAN had a good quarter, and in general has had many good quarters recently. They are on the path and have a very loyal and enthusiastic group of customers. The value of the brand is clearly there, profitability can happen.

Tesla is a good company as well; some people just don't like their offerings. There will be space for RIVIAN. That said, now is the time for RIVIAN to move fast and take the next step towards actually profitable production. Once that is done, the sky is the limit. At present, RIVIAN is a company that could take that next step. There are few others. Interest rates move up and down, we aren't in the best spot of that cycle right now. All companies face adversity, good companies get through it, great companies learn from it as well. I believe RIVIAN has the capacity for being a great company in the future, and in the end that is why I'm writing this.
 

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Ford delays it’s EV SUV business, Rivian should ramp up production fast to take advantage of these delays and cancellations!
I think Rivian has already hit the turbo button. The auto manufacturing industry just cannot move as fast as social positions do these days. Rivian has an excellent set of products coming up in R2/R3- I think there is a lot of demand for those at the right price.
They just need to make it through the ramp up timeline.
Rivian (and other EVs) will need to weather whatever political and social whims happen over the next 2 years and keep their eyes on the longer term prize.
 

Rividiculous

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I don’t get the pessimism. The anti-EV hysteria is disconcerting as is the slowing of the EV market growth rate. Yet while tides go out they also come back in. Rivian remains a start up and, thus, there’s some inherent risk in buying the stock or the vehicles. However….

- markets change. Gas prices will spike and we will see a thousand articles about the extinction of the gas SUV. (Until gas prices drop again.)

- political/social attitudes change. Remember how quickly public opinion changed about gay marriage? For decades, people were paranoid and used slurs to refer to LGBTQ people. Then, suddenly, even the far right wing decided to lighten up. Why? Because people realized they know gay people and were friends with gay people and discrimination was stupid. Well, as people get more familiar with EVs that their neighbors or relatives own, their anti-EV prejudice is going to fall to the wayside. (Apologies for analogizing people and cars, but I’m not sure how else to make the point. Attitudes can change and quickly.)

- as statistics in this thread show, Rivian makes an awesome product that is selling better than competitors. They might be a little overwhelmed and dealing with growing pains, but they have the fundamentals right. (And a CEO who appears sane and focused.)
 

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Ford delays it’s EV SUV business, Rivian should ramp up production fast to take advantage of these delays and cancellations!
That is good news for Rivian. But Rivian will likely still struggle to sell production from two shifts.

While we may be very interested in the R1 refresh I doubt the market will notice much. R!S sales are already very good, considering its an expensive EV from a new company.
 

LetsgoRIVN

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That is good news for Rivian. But Rivian will likely still struggle to sell production from two shifts.

While we may be very interested in the R1 refresh I doubt the market will notice much. R!S sales are already very good, considering its an expensive EV from a new company.
No news seems good enough anymore, the stock still trading around $10.5 while all this happened:
- R2 release major success
- surprise with steering R2 production earlier
- Surprise R3 and R3X
- Surprise $2.3mn in cost savings
- beating Q1 production and deliveries
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