Rivian to ramp up production to 200 a week (per Bloomberg)

[kurtlikevonnegut]

To be fair, you predicted they would make *less than* 8,000 in all of 2022. Which, as others discussed is less than Rivian's annualized with this step. You also said they won't reach 30k per/year until year 3 of production.

https://www.rivianforums.com/forum/threads/current-daily-production-rate.3316/post-85892

Not even nitpicking on your part, he specifically said you could bookmark to revisit!

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[ironpig]

To be fair, you predicted they would make *less than* 8,000 in all of 2022. Which, as others discussed is less than Rivian's annualized with this step. You also said they won't reach 30k per/year until year 3 of production.

https://www.rivianforums.com/forum/threads/current-daily-production-rate.3316/post-85892

Good catch. I think I may have said 8500 somewhere else, but I'll go with less than 8000. Looking forward to seeing how that prediction ages. One month in and it still seems about right.

 

[RideAlong]

" eyeing... toward...almost .. hopefully" ... need more qualifiers pls ! ?

 

[ironpig]

Not even nitpicking on your part, he specifically said you could bookmark to revisit!

I did and I appreciate the fact check. I bookmarked it now so I won't forget and I will be excited if I'm wrong. People in that thread were talking about them delivering huge numbers based on theoretical factory capacity rather than what's actually happening in production and with the supply of needed parts.

For now it seems to be lining up with reality, but at the end of the day it's just fun to see how it plays out.

 

[KiloV]

They haven’t hit 200 a week yet. That’s just the goal they are working toward right now. And January was mostly a bust for production. I’m obviously hoping they can drastically increase production but considering all the variables, that target still seems about right for the R1Ts.

I'm unclear how you got to "they haven't hit 200 a week yet" and "January was mostly a bust...." Not doubting you; I just haven't seen that info elsewhere. Curious where you are getting it.

My take is that Rivian is currently producing at about 200 units/week. With some linear scaling, this lines up, in my opinion, with the delivery schedule that they have laid out so far:

Jan - 800 R1s + Feb - 1200 R1s + Mar - 1600 + Apr - 2000 + May - 2400 + Jun - 2800 + Jul - 3200 + Aug - 3600 + Sep - 4000 + Oct - 4400 + Nov - 4800 + Dec - 5200. This production ramp schedule adds an additional 400 R1s to the ramp every month through Dec. It yields 36,000 R1s in 2022, and puts the Normal, Ill plant at near max R1 operating capacity (65K) by the end of Dec. This would put Rivian on the path to satisfying the current backlog of 71K units in the second half of 2023, which is what they have predicted.

Now, will Rivian actually be able to achieve this schedule? No idea. But I bet they're trying to do something very close to this.

 

[ironpig]

I'm unclear how you got to "they haven't hit 200 a week yet" and "January was mostly a bust...." Not doubting you; I just haven't seen that info elsewhere. Curious where you are getting it.

My take is that Rivian is currently producing at about 200 units/week. With some linear scaling, this lines up, in my opinion, with the delivery schedule that they have laid out so far:

Jan - 800 R1s + Feb - 1200 R1s + Mar - 1600 + Apr - 2000 + May - 2400 + Jun - 2800 + Jul - 3200 + Aug - 3600 + Sep - 4000 + Oct - 4400 + Nov - 4800 + Dec - 5200. This production ramp schedule adds an additional 400 R1s to the ramp every month through Dec. It yields 36,000 R1s in 2022, and puts the Normal, Ill plant at near max R1 operating capacity (65K) by the end of Dec. This would put Rivian on the path to satisfying the current backlog of 71K units in the second half of 2023, which is what they have predicted.

Now, will Rivian actually be able to achieve this schedule? No idea. But I bet they're trying to do something very close to this.

"my take is 200/week" - what's that based on? I haven't heard anything about them actually hitting 200 a week yet. They were at roughly 50 a week in December. And with the line down for a week in January (as was reported in Bloomberg today) 800 for the month would seem unlikely.

But like you I'm just guessing based on the available production and supply chain information and hoping to be wrong. 36,000 R1s in 2022 would be very exciting.

 

[ironpig]

" eyeing... toward...almost .. hopefully" ... need more qualifiers pls ! ?

Yeah everyone seems to be zeroing in on the number "200" and not actually reading the qualifiers and PR speak.

 

[MurryR1T]

I'm unclear how you got to "they haven't hit 200 a week yet" and "January was mostly a bust...." Not doubting you; I just haven't seen that info elsewhere. Curious where you are getting it.

My take is that Rivian is currently producing at about 200 units/week. With some linear scaling, this lines up, in my opinion, with the delivery schedule that they have laid out so far:

Jan - 800 R1s + Feb - 1200 R1s + Mar - 1600 + Apr - 2000 + May - 2400 + Jun - 2800 + Jul - 3200 + Aug - 3600 + Sep - 4000 + Oct - 4400 + Nov - 4800 + Dec - 5200. This production ramp schedule adds an additional 400 R1s to the ramp every month through Dec. It yields 36,000 R1s in 2022, and puts the Normal, Ill plant at near max R1 operating capacity (65K) by the end of Dec. This would put Rivian on the path to satisfying the current backlog of 71K units in the second half of 2023, which is what they have predicted.

Now, will Rivian actually be able to achieve this schedule? No idea. But I bet they're trying to do something very close to this.

“Rivian Automotive Inc. is ramping up output of its debut electric vehicle toward almost 200 delivery-ready units a week after working through production snags, according to people familiar with the matter, gaining traction after missing its goals in 2021.”

The first paragraph of the article even states they are not ramped up to 200 yet

 

[Craigins]

I'm unclear how you got to "they haven't hit 200 a week yet" and "January was mostly a bust...." Not doubting you; I just haven't seen that info elsewhere. Curious where you are getting it.

My take is that Rivian is currently producing at about 200 units/week. With some linear scaling, this lines up, in my opinion, with the delivery schedule that they have laid out so far:

Jan - 800 R1s + Feb - 1200 R1s + Mar - 1600 + Apr - 2000 + May - 2400 + Jun - 2800 + Jul - 3200 + Aug - 3600 + Sep - 4000 + Oct - 4400 + Nov - 4800 + Dec - 5200. This production ramp schedule adds an additional 400 R1s to the ramp every month through Dec. It yields 36,000 R1s in 2022, and puts the Normal, Ill plant at near max R1 operating capacity (65K) by the end of Dec. This would put Rivian on the path to satisfying the current backlog of 71K units in the second half of 2023, which is what they have predicted.

Now, will Rivian actually be able to achieve this schedule? No idea. But I bet they're trying to do something very close to this.

Waaaay too optimistic. Full production capacity is scheduled for end of 2023, not 2022. According to the S-1 Amendment 3.

 

[timf]

My best guess is that they are re-designing the seating configuration to allow for an extended range battery pack with 3-rows. There as an update from Rivian awhile back that they made the change based on overwhelming customer feedback. I would still give them the benefit of the doubt regarding the R1S considering that they are actually trying to make a "better" option for people that want a long-range model that can also haul a large family.

There is zero chance they are doing any re-designing of the R1S at this stage for the Launch Edition. They would not have claimed first "customer" deliveries if the design was not finalized, as those were considered production rather than prototypes. Any adjustments being made now would be to the manufacturing process or individual components that could be easily retrofit.

 

[Tim-in-CA]

Time to apply the Infinite Monkey Theorem ... with enough effort, they will get there!

(?x ∞) += ?.

Here's the reference for more background on the process.

 

[Dbeglor]

"my take is 200/week" - what's that based on? I haven't heard anything about them actually hitting 200 a week yet. They were at roughly 50 a week in December. And with the line down for a week in January (as was reported in Bloomberg today) 800 for the month would seem unlikely.

But like you I'm just guessing based on the available production and supply chain information and hoping to be wrong. 36,000 R1s in 2022 would be very exciting.

You're confused. The 50/week figure is approximately what they have averaged since starting. Based on actual reported production data points, they were running at nearly 160/week between the earnings call in mid-December through the end of the year.

So, what this story is saying is that since then, they shut down the line for a week or so with an eye on streamlining to be able to increase that to 200/week which they are reportedly on their way towards (no real specifics offered, but it's really not even a big increase from what they were already doing).

 

[Zoidz]

You're confused. The 50/week figure is approximately what they have averaged since starting. Based on actual reported production data points, they were running at nearly 160/week between the earnings call in mid-December through the end of the year.

So, what this story is saying is that since then, they shut down the line for a week or so with an eye on streamlining to be able to increase that to 200/week which they are reportedly on their way towards (no real specifics offered, but it's really not even a big increase from what they were already doing).

You're taking all the fun out of it for the Debbie Downers.

To expand on this as being a relatively minor step up, if they were at 160 a week at the end of the year, and are targeting 200 a week, that's:
40 more per week
8 more per day
1 more per hour (or less if running two shifts)

Hmmmm.......Doesn't sound like such a huge challenge as some want to make it out to be, huh?

 

[Dbeglor]

You're taking all the fun out of it for the Debbie Downers.

To expand on this as being a relatively minor step up, if they were at 160 a week at the end of the year, and are targeting 200 a week, that's:
40 more per week
8 more per day
1 more per hour (or less if running two shifts)

Hmmmm.......Doesn't sound like such a huge challenge as some want to make it out to be, huh?

And what's lost between the lines is that they shut the line down for a week and alluded to COVID staffing issues as well recently, so the path from 160 to 200 wasn't easy.

As has been said, for the month January will almost surely be a drop from December, but then again, that's probably what this leak was about, to explain why but the takeaway being the go forward run rate is approaching an all time high.

 

[Zach05855]

Everyone is focusing on building 200 per week....we should be focusing on delivering 200 per week.


So how many R1T have been delivered to real customers???

Where are all the trucks they're building this month?

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