Rivian Reports 2022 Q3 Earnings. R2 Vehicle Platform Launching in 2026

[R1Sky Business]

Interesting they are choosing to not include pre-orders. My guess is that they expect a lot of cancelations if the economy weakens in 2023 and they are getting ahead of that.

(This isn't a prediction of bankruptcy, just that next year, everyone might be feeling the pain a bit more and Rivian will need to buckle down until it subsides).

Nothing but good news....

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[R1Sky Business]

92.5 million Rivian miles driven so far...

That's more than 30000 oil changes missed....!!!!!

 

[Mister Person]

Bought more in the 27's yesterday. Still holding IPO shares and have averaged down to 48.

 

[Guy]

I don't see this as a bad outcome they are reaffirming several key projections including number of vehicles they are going to produce. Yes they are taking losses but they are expected losses and within tolerances. If we can get control of inflation and ramp the supply chain I would expect Rivian to be making money hand over fist by 2024.... see below

" Our core focus remains on ramping production. The demonstrated production rates within our Normal Factory continue to give us confidence in our systems, equipment, and team members’ ability to ramp our production lines. However, we believe that supply chain constraints will continue to be the limiting factor of our production. Based on our latest understanding of the supply chain environment, we are reaffirming our 2022 production guidance of 25,000 total units produced. We are also reaffirming the annual guidance provided during our second quarter earnings call of $(5,450) million in Adjusted EBITDA. We are lowering our Capital Expenditure guidance to $1,750 million due to our streamlined product roadmap and the shift of certain capital expenditures to 2023. We continue to work with the state of Georgia and the Joint Development Authority and expect our R2 platform will launch in 2026. We expect the R2 platform will unlock a global market opportunity for Rivian and are excited about the early development work that is underway. We remain confident in our ability to fund operations with cash on hand through 2025, excluding the impact of the investment in the currently contemplated joint venture with Mercedes-Benz. "

It is not great news to push back a big are of your growth one year. Four years to build a factory is on the slow end of things.
The major issue is having sufficient money to get through rest of 2022, then 2023, 2024 and 2025. Even then production will be ramping in 2026 and 2027. They need good production next year or say 75k or more to have solid financials.

 

[Trandall]

92.5 million Rivian miles driven so far...

Same as the distance to the sun!

 

[johstacy]

It is not great news to push back a big are of your growth one year. Four years to build a factory is on the slow end of things.
The major issue is having sufficient money to get through rest of 2022, then 2023, 2024 and 2025. Even then production will be ramping in 2026 and 2027. They need good production next year or say 75k or more to have solid financials.

They state in there release that one of the largest issues they currently are facing is logistics (getting the completed inventory to us buyers) they are struggling there switching from trucks to rail transport has helped but is still the bottle neck. Their financials are good through 2025 according to what they released

 

[Trandall]

Reading between the lines are we to expect another round of funding sometime in 2024 before they run out of cash in 2025?

 

[johstacy]

Reading between the lines are we to expect another round of funding sometime in 2024 before they run out of cash in 2025?

I would think so

 

[Guy]

They state in there release that one of the largest issues they currently are facing is logistics (getting the completed inventory to us buyers) they are struggling there switching from trucks to rail transport has helped but is still the bottle neck. Their financials are good through 2025 according to what they released

Production is still low for a 200k factory hence the large fixed costs. Having a second and soon third shift removes any human or factory capacity limits. It is then all supply chain.

 

[dleewla]

It's really a customer satisfaction issue at this point, but there have been complete failures (CV-Joint blowouts) too. Creaking, cracking, tocking, etc... sounds should not be coming from am $80K vehicle with 800mi on it.

It would have been super helpful if someone had asked RJ,etc.. about the CV/half-shaft issue.

these analysts likely dont own a Rivian nor are they on these forums so doubt they are even aware of these issues we all are.

 

[dleewla]

It is not great news to push back a big are of your growth one year. Four years to build a factory is on the slow end of things.
The major issue is having sufficient money to get through rest of 2022, then 2023, 2024 and 2025. Even then production will be ramping in 2026 and 2027. They need good production next year or say 75k or more to have solid financials.

im concerned about the delay of the R2. other than offering a dual motor R1, they are going to go 3 years with only 2 models? thats seems like way too long of a time to not offer something else. especially as the EV space is in hyper growth mode right now. that will be a lot of missed potential customers.

 

[CharonPDX]

Stock is currently up 17%, so obviously investors agree that the numbers are good.

 

[SANZC02]

im concerned about the delay of the R2. other than offering a dual motor R1, they are going to go 3 years with only 2 models? thats seems like way too long of a time to not offer something else. especially as the EV space is in hyper growth mode right now. that will be a lot of missed potential customers.

That is an odd take. They actually have 4 models (R1S, R1T, EDV500 and EDV700).

Compare that to Tesla, they only had the Model S from 2012 to 2016, we can’t count the 1st edition Roadster, it was a niche market vehicle building around 2500 between 2008 and 2012.

Their second real mass produced vehicle (Model X) was supposed to start shipping late 2013 but did not come to market until Late 2015 as a 2016 model.

The more commodity Model 3 was originally supposed to be released 2015/2016 but came to market late 2017 so it was 5 years between 2012 Model S and the 3rd vehicle coming to market in late 2017 and another 2 years (2019) for them to deliver the 4th model (Model Y).

I think Rivian’s model mix is pretty good and sounds like they are well on thier way for the R2 platform.

I have a larger concern that the resistance that they are getting in Georgia will cause a lot of expense and delays. Seems like they would have been better off going somewhere that would have less resistance from the community even if the government sweetheart deal may not have been as good.

 

[Count Orlok]

2026 for R2, losing the NIMBY battle in GA, and no indication on how many delivered vehicles they are aiming for in 2023. These guys are good at selling the sizzle but here I sit with no steak nearly 4 years on...

Edited to add: and the cash burn seems a lot faster than first expected. 13 billion won't last long when they aren't delivering many vehicles.

 

[dleewla]

That is an odd take. They actually have 4 models (R1S, R1T, EDV500 and EDV700).

Compare that to Tesla, they only had the Model S from 2012 to 2016, we can’t count the 1st edition Roadster, it was a niche market vehicle building around 2500 between 2008 and 2012.

Their second real mass produced vehicle (Model X) was supposed to start shipping late 2013 but did not come to market until Late 2015 as a 2016 model.

The more commodity Model 3 was originally supposed to be released 2015/2016 but came to market late 2017 so it was 5 years between 2012 Model S and the 3rd vehicle coming to market in late 2017 and another 2 years (2019) for them to deliver the 4th model (Model Y).

I think Rivian’s model mix is pretty good and sounds like they are well on thier way for the R2 platform.

I have a larger concern that the resistance that they are getting in Georgia will cause a lot of expense and delays. Seems like they would have been better off going somewhere that would have less resistance from the community even if the government sweetheart deal may not have been as good.

fair points. i didnt specify but what i meant is there are only 2 consumer vehicles. and more importantly, back in 2012-2016 Tesla didn't have any real BEV competitors, not the case for Rivian.

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