Rivian Q2 earnings - released with pre and post thoughts.

[RBR1S]

I'll summarize earnings when they come put but thoughts on it - Yes, I'll update this thread.

Everyone is going to focus on production targets currently sitting at 25,000 vehicles for the year. Q1 was 2,553 vehicles, Q2 was 4,401 - a total of 6,954, leaving 2 quarters to produce 18,046. Or roughly 3x what it had produced in 2 quarters, nearly all of those R1T. Tesla went through similar production struggles with the Model S a decade ago as it tried to ramp - and it didn't have a pandemic or component shortages to deal with.

Everyone is also going to tell you the stock is down 63% YTD. Yes it is. It was over priced, sorry guys. I've nearly doubled my money since I bought in at the May 11 low of just over $20, ok, ok, roughly 95% increase in 4 months..

The senate is trying to screw Rivian out of EV tax breaks. We all know that. And Rivian has sent us all letters of intent to get around that.



So in 15 minutes (after the closing bell) we will get to hear what everyone wants to say. Personally I can't wait. I believe in Rivian.


Headline - Rivian is kicking butt.
Earnings info - Rivian beat revenue expectations. It beat loss expectations.
Rivian says it now has 98k preorders vs 90 in May.
Rivian says it is still on track to produce 25k vehicles by end of FY.
Rivian says it expects to spend $2B on capital expenditures vs 2.6B.

• Revenue: $364 million versus $337.5 million expected.
• Adjusted loss per share: $1.62 versus an expected adjusted loss of $1.63 per share.

Rivian’s net loss for the quarter was about $1.7 billion.



https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/11/rivian-rivn-earnings-q2-2022.html

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[Diddy123]

The 25k production target includes vans. Though, I don't think the number of vans produced is significant yet. My guess is that the 25K number will split out to be 20K R1s, and 5K vans by the end of the year.

My guess on what we hear:
-RJ reiterates the production goal of 25K.
-Supply chain issues remain, but they've started to work through some of them, and production continues to ramp nicely.
-Earnings will be around $365M.
-SUVs are in production and being tested via the employee beta program. No new info on delivery to non-employees.
-They are actively managing costs, and the layoffs were part of a wider effort to rein in spending for the company as a whole.

...and that's about it.

 

[ORFynder]

I believe the 25K also includes the RDVs for 2022. Also I believe they recently posted 10K production of R1s. I believe it will be a good call. I also believe in Rivian

 

[odingrey]

Looks like pretty much as expected. I was hoping their loss would be a smidge less, but it is slowly trending downwards.

I think the ev credit loss sucks, but I don't think it'll be as bad as it seems like it would be. They are still increasing orders even after the price increase, and even at full tilt are over two years away from fulfilling the current orders (van included).

At the moment, their primary bottleneck is how many vehicles they can crank out. They've already defined that number to 25k, so they already effectively know and expect what their loss will be for the year (with some slop when estimating inflation)

Even with the loss in mind, they are still spending half a billion on r&d, which I'm sure is significantly biased on r2, given their 2025 release.

So, imo, either they are grossly incompetently and blowing money for funsies, or they have a decent plan in place, know exactly what their burn rate is and will be, and are still focusing on the future, rather than acting like they are about to fail.

Maybe it's wishful thinking as an owner and investor, but I'm personally bullish on Rivian.

 

[svet-am]

Investor summary here: https://downloads.rivian.com/2md5qh...cf80955/Rivian-Q2-2022-Shareholder-Letter.pdf

 

[moosehead]

Given the quarterly loss of ($1.7B), gulp, would like to see a bridge to year end break even or better. Presume that is largely all in the ramp revenues. Doubling+ production next two quarters sounds reasonable off first base?

Sure it looks semi reasonable compared to the Q1 bloodletting, but it still is a gut check. Hard business starting a new automotive manufacturing company.

 

[EVTrucking]

Looks like pretty much as expected. I was hoping their loss would be a smidge less, but it is slowly trending downwards.

I think the ev credit loss sucks, but I don't think it'll be as bad as it seems like it would be. They are still increasing orders even after the price increase, and even at full tilt are over two years away from fulfilling the current orders (van included).

At the moment, their primary bottleneck is how many vehicles they can crank out. They've already defined that number to 25k, so they already effectively know and expect what their loss will be for the year (with some slop when estimating inflation)

Even with the loss in mind, they are still spending half a billion on r&d, which I'm sure is significantly biased on r2, given their 2025 release.

So, imo, either they are grossly incompetently and blowing money for funsies, or they have a decent plan in place, know exactly what their burn rate is and will be, and are still focusing on the future, rather than acting like they are about to fail.

Maybe it's wishful thinking as an owner and investor, but I'm personally bullish on Rivian.

I too am still bullish on Rivian and are doing a remarkable job.

One point I disagree on is that there is a production bottleneck. If I am not mistaken this is at least the third call in which Rivian sited “Parts Supply” as the primary production limiter.

 

[EVTrucking]

Given the quarterly loss of ($1.7B), gulp, would like to see a bridge to year end break even. Presume that is largely all in the ramp revenues. Doubling+ production next two quarters sounds reasonable off first base?

Sure it looks semi reasonable compared to the Q1 bloodletting, but it still is a gut check. Hard business starting a new automotive manufacturing business.

No Parts=No R1s, production rate is meaningless. Once Rivian reports that supply chain issues are over then production rate comes into play.

Break even end of 2025 …… maybe

 

[pc500]

Did anyone listen to the webcast and was there anything useful?

 

[Jac]

Coming from a career working in the financial services industry, I was struck once again on the just completed Rivian quarterly earnings call how many of the analysts’ questions were “softballs” and, more importantly, how readily the analysts allowed management to simply give non-answers without pushing back on so many questions. I was accustomed to deep probing questions from analysts covering my company and fairly detailed responses from our CEO, CFO, and domestic and international business heads on every quarterly earnings call.

 

[odingrey]

I too am still bullish on Rivian and are doing a remarkable job.

One point I disagree on is that there is a production bottleneck. If I am not mistaken this is at least the third call in which Rivian sited “Parts Supply” as the primary production limiter.

Ah sorry, yes that is what I was getting at. The bottleneck is production, caused by the shortage of parts. With their constant reiteration that they can do 25k this year, 50k normally, that tells me that they must assume they will be getting more parts in and will be sustainable at 50k a year.

I have to imagine each truck, at the reduced cost, isn't doing much to their bottom line right now, but once the current cost trucks are starting to get shipped and they are producing at full tilt, then we might start approaching break even. R2 and Georgia might be their long game for profitability.

 

[Tbrou16]

Coming from a career working in the financial services industry, I was struck once again on the just completed Rivian quarterly earnings call how many of the analysts’ questions were “softballs” and, more importantly, how readily the analysts allowed management to simply give non-answers without pushing back on so many questions. I was accustomed to deep probing questions from analysts covering my company and fairly detailed responses from our CEO, CFO, and domestic and international business heads on every quarterly earnings call.

Maybe Amazon being a “big brother” company to Rivian affords them more leeway navigating ramp up.

 

[emoore]

Given the quarterly loss of ($1.7B), gulp, would like to see a bridge to year end break even or better. Presume that is largely all in the ramp revenues. Doubling+ production next two quarters sounds reasonable off first base?

Sure it looks semi reasonable compared to the Q1 bloodletting, but it still is a gut check. Hard business starting a new automotive manufacturing company.

They wont break even or post a profit in years. Look how long it too Tesla to do that and they had significant income from selling EV credits.

 

[BigE]

In listening to the call, RJ could be a politician. He gives long, drawn-out, and rehearsed explanations in responses to questions with zero substance or answers. More transparency would be appreciated and admired.

 

[bd5400]

Did anyone listen to the webcast and was there anything useful?

Nothing useful or beyond what is already included in the shareholder letter (that I recall).

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