Scoiatael

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Exactly why I pulled the trigger on the Lightning. I still have high hopes for Rivian long term but lost faith that I would get one in 2022, even with the Oct-Dec window. I should have a lightning by mid 2022, so if the lightning doesn't meet my needs I can get my Rivian sometime in 2023.
I'm still hoping to be in an upcoming wave for Lightning orders, but ready to be disappointed. I'm starting to think 2023 will be when I get some sort of EV truck.
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Grabs10

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On December 15 their financials said 652 produced. So hitting 1015 is around 180 a week the last 2 weeks of December. Nice bump in production over the initial 652 vehicles. Hopefully they will have another bump in production equally impressive in January. I hope they keep releasing production numbers as frequently as they do as that is what paints the clearest picture.
 

ADVNOW

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I'm in manufacturing myself and I understand the ramp up process and a new dilemma we are facing with the supply chain issues. I believe the reason they can't give solid answer (especially if its like a lot of us in Manufacturing) you really don't know when you will get your next delivery even if the parts are made here in the states, because those suppliers are waiting for delivers to start your product. You're given an estimated delivery date and than delay notices after that and all it takes is one missing part. I was actually surprised they gave the dates they did to so many that far in the future. I can only plan out about 3 to 4 weeks in the future because I don't know if I will get my next delivery on time or even how many parts I will receive. At times we're literally scratching at the bottom of the barrel.
 

AdamsFan1983

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On December 15 their financials said 652 produced. So hitting 1015 is around 180 a week the last 2 weeks of December. Nice bump in production over the initial 652 vehicles. Hopefully they will have another bump in production equally impressive in January. I hope they keep releasing production numbers as frequently as they do as that is what paints the clearest picture.
Its my understanding the plant was shut down for a few days doing retooling/ maintainence around the holiday as well. Its probably fair to assume the daily rates are a bit higher.
 

SeaGeo

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How do you get to 400 per week since that would be 800 just for the second half of December which would be 80% of all R1Ts produced since September.
I don’t recall how many they said on the 16th had already been made and delivered, so I may be wrong. If they are already at 400 a week then that is close to 20k a year which sounds high since I didn’t think they had a second shift yet.
Totally forgot to subtract out the previous produced number when I was setting up a little spreadsheet to start keeping track of these, and then dinner was ready and I didn't BS check the number. My bad. More like 140 give or take. Some of those may have also been EDVs
 

Dbeglor

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Totally forgot to subtract out the previous produced number when I was setting up a little spreadsheet to start keeping track of these, and then dinner was ready and I didn't BS check the number. My bad. More like 140 give or take. Some of those may have also been EDVs
Below are all of the production updates I'm aware of. Amendment 2 to the S1 had a weird data point that makes me wonder if it was really correcting the number from Amend 1. Either that, or they turned things up to see what would happen.

SourceAs of DateCumulative #Period Marginal #Weeks since previous updateper week
S1 Amend 1
30-Sep​
12​
12​
2.0​
6
S1 Amend 1
22-Oct​
56​
44​
3.114
S1 Amend 2
31-Oct​
180​
124​
1.396
Q3 Earnings/Letter
15-Dec​
652​
472​
6.473
1/10 Update
31-Dec​
1015​
363​
2.3159
 

SeaGeo

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Below are all of the production updates I'm aware of. Amendment 2 to the S1 had a weird data point that makes me wonder if it was really correcting the number from Amend 1. Either that, or they turned things up to see what would happen.

SourceAs of DateCumulative #Period Marginal #Weeks since previous updateper week
S1 Amend 1
30-Sep​
12​
12​
2.0​
6
S1 Amend 1
22-Oct​
56​
44​
3.114
S1 Amend 2
31-Oct​
180​
124​
1.396
Q3 Earnings/Letter
15-Dec​
652​
472​
6.473
1/10 Update
31-Dec​
1015​
363​
2.3159
How are you counting days/weeks?
 

SeaGeo

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Date of update minus previous date (# of days), divided by 7.
I did networkdays and then divided by 5. Just Interesting seeing the sensitivity to the counting assumptions over a short time period (no surprise though).
 

kylealden

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Baby steps. They have been unable to reach ANY of their previous (lofty) goals, so they set a 2-week goal and actually achieved it! Congrats, now make another 2-week goal and achieve that too. Then try a 3-week goal...you get the picture.

I would say just get us our Rivians, but what I really want is a T and S side by side that I can make an educated decision on which one to go with first. Oh, and I want to see all the colors on something larger than an index card.

I am in Orange County, that should be fairly easy. Take 9 employees and give them the following vehicles to drive to work every day. Hire 2 security guards to keep an eye on them and allow the public to look.

#1 R1T LAUNCH GREEN 20" All-Terrain Forrest Edge
#2 R1T LA SILVER 20" All-Terrain Bright Black Mountain
#3 R1T GLACIER WHITE 20" All-Terrain Dark Ocean Coast
#4 R1T RED CANYON 21" Road Black Mountain
#5 R1T MIDNIGHT 22" Sport Bright Forrest Edge
#6 R1S RIVIAN BLUE 22" Sport Dark Black Mountain
#7 R1S LIMESTONE 20" All-Terrain Ocean Coast
#8 R1S FOREST GREEN 20" All-Terrain Bright Forrest Edge
#9 R1S EL CAP GRANITE 20" All-Terrain Dark Black Mountain
#10 R1S COMPASS YELLOW 21" Road Black Mountain

BAM! You have now shown every option and people can see and choose (in OC at least).
Now just multiply that by every county in the country!
 

kylealden

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Someone needs to set up a webcam pointing at the factory where the trucks roll out the door.
Guy in a ghillie suit in a tree across from the parking lot with a telephoto...
 

R1T7777

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Starting to wonder if the estimates they gave for Adventures editions for July - September and October - December of this year are just keep people from canceling. I don't see how they are possibly going to make a significant dent in the LE editions this year, let alone get to Adventure ones.
Honestly, not in a hurry personally. I'd rather have good QC. I just hope the price doesn't go up for reservation holders.
 

bd5400

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Rivian had a backlog of 55k R1T pre-orders around November 8. I pre-ordered at the end of October and Rivian gave me a delivery window of late 2022.

Not. Gonna. Happen.
I ordered in September 2021 and was also given a delivery window of October - December 2022. While I'm not holding my breath, I'm also taking into account that my build has been pushed ahead of any max pack orders as well as any explore orders, so being reservation number XX,XXX no longer correlates to build date. I would guess that Rivian has also built in some sort of estimate for cancellations as well (which may be offset by early pre-orders changing builds to push up their delivery dates).

So at the very least, there are factors that increase the possibility that more recent pre-orders could see vehicles in 2022...at the expense of many older reservations.
 

Temerarius

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I'm still hoping to be in an upcoming wave for Lightning orders, but ready to be disappointed. I'm starting to think 2023 will be when I get some sort of EV truck.
100% this.

For me, it doesn't matter what I pull the trigger on, pretty sure either way, I'm looking at 2023 to take delivery. I have little faith that I'd get my F150 Lightening in 2022 (given their limited production capacity/dealer allocation combined with dealer shenanigans or otherwise dick like maneuvers).

So, I've just set my expectation for a 2023 EV truck delivery somewhere between Jan 2023 and June 2023.
 

RexRemus

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100% this.

For me, it doesn't matter what I pull the trigger on, pretty sure either way, I'm looking at 2023 to take delivery. I have little faith that I'd get my F150 Lightening in 2022 (given their limited production capacity/dealer allocation combined with dealer shenanigans or otherwise dick like maneuvers).

So, I've just set my expectation for a 2023 EV truck delivery somewhere between Jan 2023 and June 2023.
I think basically this. Unless you were already in line a while back (possibly WAY back) for ANY EV truck (or truck-like) you're not going to get it any sooner than 2023 and possibly LATE into 2023. If the Rivian is what you want (or wanted when you made your deposit) I think it's probably best to just wait it out. I am not happy I'm getting mine at least 6 months later than expected, but like others, my silver lining for it is that it's an extra 6 months of hardware/software updates and fixes and other people doing beta testing for me before it arrives. But to be fair, I have the luxury of waiting, my current vehicle works and runs fine with low mileage and I have no urgent need for my R1S - I'll get it when I get it. But I looked at jumping ship and there's no shortcut to faster delivery via another option, so I'll stay here. The R1S is the one I "want" - so it's worth waiting for.
 
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