Rivian Eventual L3 and Data Gathering

twinprice

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I for one can't wait for my RS1 and then the eventual L3 capability down the road, but here is my question:
After reading a number of articles surrounding autonomous driving, Tesla always comes up as the current winner for being the farthest ahead with their system. Excluding the arguments regarding radar vs lidar vs cameras etc. and Tesla's decision to go with their hardware setup, one fact that is hard to dismiss is the unbelievable amount of data that Tesla has gathered up to now. They have supposedly gathered over 1 Billion miles of data! So, if this is the case, how do any of the other manufactures catch up with Tesla? I am not necessarily concerned with who will win, but, is it possible to have a L3 autonomous system within a "short" amount of time without all of that data? Even Tesla still isn't really to L3 with 1 Billion+ miles, so how can another company get to where Tesla is quickly?

Please don't make this an argument about Tesla vs Rivian vs Others, but instead, discuss the technological possibilities and futures for me and others who may have the same questions.

What do you see as the pathway towards L3 and beyond for other manufacturers? (Of course I really only want to hear about Rivian! :rock:
 

UT Rivian

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I have no insider knowledge, but would think the partnership with Amazon would help greatly with data collection—not to mention getting 100,000 delivery vans on the road.
 

davrow_R1T

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I'm still having trouble understanding why a billion miles of recorded data mean anything. If you can drive through a complex scenario on a test environment, you're done.

Sure a billion miles has a lot of info, but once you've missed one pedestrian in every conceivable variation, does testing it a million more times produce new data? I don't see it.

Tesla is counting on not having to create test scenarios by having real world examples. But either produces nearly the same results.

UT Rivian, the vans are being introduced over 8 years. I don't think they will really help with getting to L3. Hasn't RJ said the R1T/R1S will be delivered with L3?
 

EVian

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I think they’ve said that they ship with L3-capable hardware (sensors, required amount and type of compute capability) but will be only L2 from launch. The gap is developing the software/AI/algorithms to understand the world.

And that’s where the billion miles comes in. Tesla’s system is heavily neural net based, and it needs to learn. Google for how computers learn to tell the difference between photos of cats and dogs. Then find out how accurate the most capable neural net is and worry about a system like that driving your vehicle for you.

Getting a machine to understand the world is an incredibly complex task. You could probably create a system that has more inherent understanding (but not much) so that the neural net understanding can be tailored to specific areas (with different nets for different scenarios) such that you might be able to learn more quickly.
 

EVian

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Just came across this that mentions one way of reducing the length of time teaching an artificial intelligence based system takes:

Haven’t watched it all yet.
 

jimcgov3

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I heard from multiple sources at the Fully Charged Live event that they will have the ability to turn on Level 3 as soon as the vehicles are released...
 

ajdelange

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The concept is called Artificial Intelligence which implies that the machine which possesses it is capable of the same sort of learning that humans are capable of. A teenager can drive a car but there is some question as to whether we want him to or not until he has accumulated some experience. That's what all this data collection is about. The "neural networks" that are at the heart of modern AI are "trained" by operating the machine and looking at the results of the decisions it makes retaining configuration changes that result in good outcomes and reconfiguring when the outcome isn't so good. The more data you collect, presumably the better trained your system will be so the way they catch up to Tesla is by collecting data over time as Tesla did. The vehicles will be released initally with Level 2 capability. Level 3 will come later as the data rolls in. It will just take time.
 

Mjhirsch78

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On the video posted by EVian jump to 1:30 to hear the companies speeding up data gathering.
 

UT Rivian

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UT Rivian, the vans are being introduced over 8 years. I don't think they will really help with getting to L3. Hasn't RJ said the R1T/R1S will be delivered with L3?
Yeah, I don’t disagree that the Prime delivery vans are a bit far off in the future, but I can’t imagine Amazon hasn’t been thinking of this before and perhaps collecting some data that might be useful to Rivian....
 

ajdelange

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I heard from multiple sources at the Fully Charged Live event that they will have the ability to turn on Level 3 as soon as the vehicles are released...
The phrase that I recall from videos of interviews at this event is something to the effect that the trucks will ship with L2 capability but that the hardware is L3 ready. What that means is enough sensors and computing power but that the algorithms are not tuned. Going back to the analogy of No. 7 it is the same as your teenage son being quite capable of driving but not being sure you want him to. Compare to Tesla. I'm not even sure what level they claim but the cars can stay in lane, slow down if something steps in front of the car, make lane changes if you are behind a slow car etc. The question is as to whether those capabilities are polished enough to be turned over to the driving public.
 

jimcgov3

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The phrase that I recall from videos of interviews at this event is something to the effect that the trucks will ship with L2 capability but that the hardware is L3 ready. What that means is enough sensors and computing power but that the algorithms are not tuned. Going back to the analogy of No. 7 it is the same as your teenage son being quite capable of driving but not being sure you want him to. Compare to Tesla. I'm not even sure what level they claim but the cars can stay in lane, slow down if something steps in front of the car, make lane changes if you are behind a slow car etc. The question is as to whether those capabilities are polished enough to be turned over to the driving public.
Sure. But there is also the possibility that they may have purchased the data. There are multiple companies all in that area of the automotive world that do nothing but gather autonomous data for automobile manufacturers. While Rivian has not come out and said they bought it, as I said, multiple Rivian reps at the event said that they will be able to turn on Level 3 as soon as it is released...Either they have way more mules on the road gathering data than we all think, or they have purchased the data from a 3rd party. Just my thoughts.
 

electruck

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multiple Rivian reps at the event said that they will be able to turn on Level 3 as soon as it is released.
The hardware will be in place to support level 3 as soon as level 3 software is released, not as soon as the vehicles are released. This could be anytime in the future. They wouldn't need to "turn it on" via an update if the capability existed when the vehicles ship, they would just ship with it.
 

jimcgov3

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The hardware will be in place to support level 3 as soon as level 3 software is released, not as soon as the vehicles are released. This could be anytime in the future. They wouldn't need to "turn it on" via an update if the capability existed when the vehicles ship, they would just ship with it.
Correct...I understand that. I am just regurgitating exactly what was told to me at Fully Charged. I have no reason to doubt them. They work there. I don't...but this horse is dead so I will leave it alone now.
 

ajdelange

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Sure. But there is also the possibility that they may have purchased the data. There are multiple companies all in that area of the automotive world that do nothing but gather autonomous data for automobile manufacturers.
As data collected from Tesla or Ford would be pretty useless for tuning Rivian's algorithms I don't think this is the case.
 

ajdelange

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The hardware will be in place to support level 3 as soon as level 3 software is released, not as soon as the vehicles are released. This could be anytime in the future. They wouldn't need to "turn it on" via an update if the capability existed when the vehicles ship, they would just ship with it.
"Hardware" means the physical processor chips in which the programs are executed and the memory chips in which instructions (programs) and data are stored. These will be present in the vehicle that is delivered to you. Level 2 code will also be on board and presumably enabled. There may be a version of the Level 3 firmware on board too but presumably it will not be enabled. As the level 3 code evolves to the state where Rivian feels comfortable with drivers actually using it a current version will be downloaded OTA or the version already on board will be enabled OTA (probably the former). Put another way, the truck will be delivered with Level 2. Level 3 will come later. When it does no additional hardware will need to be installed.
 
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