Rivian Driver+ vs Ford BlueCruise vs Tesla AutoPilot: What are expectations at launch for Driver+

[svet-am]

I work in the industry (for a semiconductor company with a vested interest). True Level 5 systems are in development now. They are coming. No, they are not here yet but they are on just over the horizon. And, no, it’s not from Tesla. The industry has known about Elon’s “reality distortion field” for a while and now the public is catching on. The true L5 systems won’t be nearly as sexy but the ones I know of will “just work.” Personally, I can’t wait. The weak link on the roads is the human element . The sooner we are out of the loop the better.

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[2021R1T]

Adaptive cruise is better in my 2019 Volt and 2019 Audi than my 2018 Tesla Model 3. Driver steering assist is about the same in both the Audi and Tesla. I only use either on long straight stretches of highway with light traffic. The glaring issue with the Audi is it will disengage without warning. The lane keeping lines go from green to white and that is it. I only notice that when it starts to drift out of the lane and glance down to confirm it has dropped out. Safety flaw to me and I don’t use it much. Either really. Level 2 at highway speeds is going to be the limit for a very long time to come. Tesla has concentrated too much on the fantasy of “full self driving”. Yes Elon claims Level 5 which is never ever happening in a production consumer Tesla. I hope Rivian does not follow. Good Level 2 adaptive cruise with true lane keeping is all that is needed. Get your Waymo app if you need more.

 

[Blueassassin]

Stop and go lower speed traffic is the only time I really see the benefit rather than just driving myself.

 

[svet-am]

Stop and go lower speed traffic is the only time I really see the benefit rather than just driving myself.

It's interesting that you wrote it the way you did. "Overconfidence bias" is a thing that has been studied and a big part of why full Level-5 autonomy will make life better for everyone:

https://www.businessinsider.com/americans-are-overconfident-in-their-driving-skills-2018-1
https://mobilitybehaviour.eu/2017/07/26/overconfidence-and-optimism-bias-and-traffic-safety/
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/271728323_Individual_Differences_in_Driver_Over-Confidence
https://www.floridacaraccidentlawyerblog.com/is_overconfidence_in_driving_s/
https://www.hoganinjury.com/overconfidence-an-overlooked-cause-of-fatal-car-accidents/

 

[Blueassassin]

It's interesting that you wrote it the way you did. "Overconfidence bias" is a thing that has been studied and a big part of why full Level-5 autonomy will make life better for everyone:

https://www.businessinsider.com/americans-are-overconfident-in-their-driving-skills-2018-1
https://mobilitybehaviour.eu/2017/07/26/overconfidence-and-optimism-bias-and-traffic-safety/
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/271728323_Individual_Differences_in_Driver_Over-Confidence
https://www.floridacaraccidentlawyerblog.com/is_overconfidence_in_driving_s/
https://www.hoganinjury.com/overconfidence-an-overlooked-cause-of-fatal-car-accidents/

wow good reads ya I was thinking more I like to drive. Only the boring times like being stuck in traffic are going to be great that it can take over. I do feel robots are better than a lot of drivers out there "including my wife". also if the vehicles are talking to each other on auto pilot traffic could have a better flow.

 

[Hilbe]

I own 2 Teslas with FSD. They taking exits, overtake cars, get me to my destination with minimal interaction, and I arrive generally rested w/o fatigue. The FSD package is/was worth it to me. I also have a child that will some day need a self driving car. The entire disabled community really needs FSD to live the independent lives they desire. While I am not sure if/when L4/L5 will happen with my Teslas, I do hope for them to succeed for the amount of lives saved/quality of life improvement from FSD cars.

That said, I'm expecting interstate-only with Driver+ at launch. I'm hoping it isn't geofenced from day 1 to specific routes, but that may be the case. If it can change lanes/take exits I'll be very happy but not expecting that level at launch.

 

[Autolycus]

It's interesting that you wrote it the way you did. "Overconfidence bias" is a thing that has been studied and a big part of why full Level-5 autonomy will make life better for everyone:

https://www.businessinsider.com/americans-are-overconfident-in-their-driving-skills-2018-1
https://mobilitybehaviour.eu/2017/07/26/overconfidence-and-optimism-bias-and-traffic-safety/
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/271728323_Individual_Differences_in_Driver_Over-Confidence
https://www.floridacaraccidentlawyerblog.com/is_overconfidence_in_driving_s/
https://www.hoganinjury.com/overconfidence-an-overlooked-cause-of-fatal-car-accidents/

I laugh every time a coworker who grew up in South Florida and other warm climates with no snow makes the comment, "I'm fine driving in winter conditions, I just worry about everybody else." I've seen them drive in good conditions. They're not fine.

EDIT: For what it's worth, I grew up on the Gulf Coast. "snow" to us meant anything frozen at all (except hail). Even super fine sleet counted. Schools closed if "wintry mix" was in the forecast. I have not driven in real snow or ice more than a couple dozen times in my entire life (early 40s). I know very well that I have to be extremely careful when driving anytime there's frozen stuff on the road, but of course that's because of other people. I know what I'm doing.

 

[svet-am]

I live in Colorado. We can always tell in the first snow storm who the recent transplants are.
On a personal note, I think that I am a middle of the road driver. Still, I look forward to pervasive L5 autonomy so that I can do other things while the car is in transit. It's not just that I can use that time for projects/reading/etc but also so that I can just observe the world going by like I would on a train or an airplane. When I'm driving, I'm so focused on not killing myself or anyone else that it's hard to take in the wider landscape - especially on long road trips.

 

[R_1_T]

I work in the industry (for a semiconductor company with a vested interest). True Level 5 systems are in development now. They are coming. No, they are not here yet but they are on just over the horizon. And, no, it’s not from Tesla. The industry has known about Elon’s “reality distortion field” for a while and now the public is catching on. The true L5 systems won’t be nearly as sexy but the ones I know of will “just work.” Personally, I can’t wait. The weak link on the roads is the human element . The sooner we are out of the loop the better.

You can't remove humans from the loop since both hardware and software are developed by them. There's also serious issues involved with the integration of non-deterministic software (AI or machine learning) in a safety-critical system context. The typical band aid is a supervisory piece of software that's deterministic. The final piece is of the puzzle are the testing/regulatory and legal side of things. I personally hope I never have to share the road with robots.

 

[IHScout]

I laugh every time a coworker who grew up in South Florida and other warm climates with no snow makes the comment, "I'm fine driving in winter conditions, I just worry about everybody else." I've seen them drive in good conditions. They're not fine.

EDIT: For what it's worth, I grew up on the Gulf Coast. "snow" to us meant anything frozen at all (except hail). Even super fine sleet counted. Schools closed if "wintry mix" was in the forecast. I have not driven in real snow or ice more than a couple dozen times in my entire life (early 40s). I know very well that I have to be extremely careful when driving anytime there's frozen stuff on the road, but of course that's because of other people. I know what I'm doing.

Reminds of the this past winter when I drove through a snow storm towing my trailer with my friend, who is from Florida. He seemed anxious and asked me if I was experienced with snow driving.....lol. I reminded him I have lived in Phoenix most of my life, and said not really, that's why I am going a lot slower and in 4wd! We were grateful to get to our destination a short time later. I wondered if our wives were reviewing our life insurance policies with a little too much glee on our trip!

 

[Temerarius]

No it doesn’t.

Tesla or any other company will never get to level 5 approvals. Never.

anything short of level 5 is just marketing BS.

I hope you or anyone else’s doesn’t have to live with the realization of killing a kid while you thought it was safe to drive a vehicle without paying attention.

Who pee'd in your Fruit Loops this morning?

For one, no one is talking about FSD, we are talking about how Driver+ would fair (or we hope fairs) against Blue Cruise and Tesla AP.

I personally use the (FSD enhanced) AP in my Tesla all the time on road trips. It takes a lot of the annoyance and strain out of driving and I end up at my destination a great deal more refreshed than I would otherwise. It keeps pace with the traffic, moves my car into the needed lanes ahead of time (ok, not always as early as it maybe should... but I digress) and handles on ramp/off ramps for me (it has yet to miss one, whereas I have... more than a few times).

As Amiga points out, it's a driver assist enhancement that is designed to make driving longer trips easier and less stressful, and should only be used by drivers that are paying attention and in specific weather and road conditions (which, yes, my Tesla will tell me to pound sand if I try and engage it in less than ideal conditions).

That said, I think Blue Cruise is crap, it can't handle corners, it doesn't do lane change (right now), it's basically the same adaptive cruise my 2014 Dodge Durango had in it. I think this highlights the difference between a legacy automaker and a net new one. Tesla (and I expect Rivian, Fisker, etc...) is able to more quickly adapt and make changes to new technology, legacy car markers... not so much.

I'm personally hoping Driver+ is more akin to Tesla AP, because the Blue Cruise, I would find annoying and more stressful (having to nanny the damn thing every time a corner is coming up, not knowing if it will disengage or not).

If you add in they are giving you an insurance discount (provided you go with their service) for using it, tells me it should be more in line with Tesla AP (not FSD) and you are being encouraged to use it more often than not.

 

[svet-am]

You can't remove humans from the loop since both hardware and software are developed by them. There's also serious issues involved with the integration of non-deterministic software (AI or machine learning) in a safety-critical system context. The typical band aid is a supervisory piece of software that's deterministic. The final piece is of the puzzle are the testing/regulatory and legal side of things. I personally hope I never have to share the road with robots.

Do you fly on airplanes? This is already a thing with aviation. Check out the DO-128 and DO-254 specifications. ISO26262 is the relevant specification (similar to IEC61508) for automotive. You remove your "humans designed it" problem through the process.

I know you're probably trolling and I really ought to insert the "that's bait" GIF from Fury Road but I just wanted to include references to the actual specifications that govern things for those people who aren't familiar with how the industry handles this issue.

 

[R_1_T]

Do you fly on airplanes? This is already a thing with aviation. Check out the DO-128 and DO-254 specifications. ISO26262 is the relevant specification (similar to IEC61508) for automotive. You remove your "humans designed it" problem through the process.

I know you're probably trolling and I really ought to insert the "that's bait" GIF from Fury Road but I just wanted to include references to the actual specifications that govern things for those people who aren't familiar with how the industry handles this issue.

Uh yeah - I know what ISO 26262 is. I sit right next to the engineer responsible for implementing the process (which is designed by people). You can't remove them from the process. The process assumes that everyone's acting in good faith to a certain degree. I've worked with a robotics/computer vision systems company that designed IED clearing machines, and was subsequently acquired by Ford. Dropping non-deterministic code inside of a safety-critical system is a real concern since there's always going to be some scenario that wasn't anticipated or tested for. This even before factoring in the "ethics" of AI controlled system, where a collision may be unavoidable, or a cyber attack of some form occurs.

I also know the inner workings of the automotive industry, having spent 28 years in it on both the OEM and supply side. Don't even begin to compare the test and safety standards applied in avionics to automotive. Corners can and will be cut somewhere, as they always do. When this is combined with their commodity strategy, the same flaws are propagated across fleets of hundreds of thousands of vehicles. The GM ignition switch and Takata airbag scandals are just two examples of cost-cutting measures gone bad. When it comes to regulatory compliance, let's also ignore the recent history of software-enabled emissions-related scandals.

I'm not trolling at all actually. I'm very serious about this, and would prefer not to have the system at all on my vehicle if it was possible, just as I'd rather have a manual transmission in all my vehicles. Passive safety through increased situational awareness is all fine and good, but no robot driver for me. No need or desire to fly anywhere ever.

Note that I'm not implying that any of the above will be done by Rivian or its workforce. I simply don't trust this specific technology regardless of who's implementing it.

 

[rraj2k81]

I personally love driving too much, whether it's cruising on a back country road or even going on winding highways, that when I am on those type of roads I personally want to drive the car.

For me an ADAS system is only helpful when I am doing a long road trip on a highway or when I am stuck in traffic during my day to day commute to work.
So a combination of adaptive cruise + Stop and Go + Lane Centering + Collision avoidance/warning is an ideal system. I could not care about taking exists or being able to drive on local roads.

I watched the Sandy review of Blue Cruise and one of his biggest knock was that the system would not do highways exits like Tesla Autopilot, because when an exit comes up he could be using his phone, doing something else or being yelled by his wife and could miss his exit !

Uhhh that's called distracted driving grand pa !

This video by Rory, is very timely as we are discussing about modern ADAS and Automated driving,
Is Your Car's Computer Causing ACCIDENTS? - YouTube

He sums it best, at the end of the day the best safety feature of a car for better or worst is the nut behind the wheel, and I could not agree more !

 

[svet-am]

He sums it best, at the end of the day the best safety feature of a car for better or worst is the nut behind the wheel, and I could not agree more !

This is definitely true while we're still at L2/L2+. As we progress more toward L4/L5, the vehicles will begin to communicate with one another and mitigate entire situations that humans would induce.

As I said above, I work actively with partners of my company on these types of systems. They are just over the horizon (8-ish years). They will be a completely different paradigm for operating a motor vehicle. Think more like your car will be a people mover. One of the demographics I hear a lot about is enabling the very young/old. If your vehicle is just a people mover, it's probably okay to send your kid to school in it while mom/dad stay at home. Same with aging parents. It might enable some of them to live independently for a little longer.

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