Rivian Cash Concerns Spur 76% Price-Target Cut by Longtime Bull

[VSG]

Its was definitely overvalued at the beginning which really makes me mad.

Why? Yes, it was overpriced initially, but you didn't have to buy it. Or you could have bought the IPO then sold half when it doubled in value, leaving you with "free" shares.

A lot of people jumped into the IPO without knowing what they were doing and gambled on the stock, rather than investing in the stock.

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[the long way downunder]

Wall Street:

A pit of vipers is not a realistic depiction of Wall Street … unless it's a billion small mice being eaten by high frequency fat vipers.

 

[CGM55082]

Often analyst make thee types of calls just to gain attention and get air time on financial networks. This particular analyst also had Rivian priced at well over $100B in market cap after IPO because prices were at that level. Now that its trading essentially at cash-on-hand value, he changed it to that - wow, very insightful and a genius!!!

I do not pay attention to analyst calls, except to note them since they sway novice actions and sentiment, and do my own work on companies I'm interested in AND understand their businesses. This has worked for me. I've managed to more than 6x my investment value over the last 10 yrs. That includes very bad 2022. I'm still ~20% CAGR during the last 10 yrs.

Given your solid track record, do you recommend buying RIVN here? If not, at what price?

 

[VSG]

A pit of vipers is not a realistic depiction of Wall Street … unless it's a billion small mice being eaten by high frequency fat vipers.

Yeah, that's not a pit of vipers, it's a pile of garter snakes that wish they were vipers.

 

[TollKeeper]

I am taking advantage of the dip personally. Bought another 1200 stocks today.

 

[lefkonj]

His short position must be ready to pop..... Companies should be allowed to grow and deal with issues over time. Nothing moves as quickly as the 'analysts' want.

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

Opinions and a-holes… Or he is knocking price down so his hedge fund buddies can load up shares on the cheap. The market is too easy to manipulate and hard to prove unless someone snitches.

 

[Honey]

Time for me to buy some more.

 

[Mark_AZR1T]

They lost $150,000 a vehicle in Q4. $1.5B cash burn with 10,000 vehicles produced. 2024 is a pivotal year......

 

[Rad_ry]

RIVN is heading to 12-10 from here, then back to 16-20 before a final washout to 8-7 when it will finally bottom near the end of this year or early next year. My WAG (which I think is just as valuable of an opinion as Potter's ).

lol, did you just pull those numbers from you know where?

At the end of this year, their production could be humming after ramping enduro/LFP, get a few more quarters to show a better GP trend (current lithium prices are a bonus), and the biggie external factor - the risk Cybertruck disappoints (it may not from a performance POV, but potentially price and production volume).

 

[MidnightRivian]

RIVN stock failed its most recent test to break $16 resistance point.

Looks like we are headed back down to test the lower Bollinger band around $12

Hold on tight RIVN shareholders. I hope you still got some tread left on your all terrain tires.

That $60 drop from a $75 IPO price really took a toll on those all terrains.

Pirelli's ain't cheap. Start to think about dollar cost averaging that sad sad position.

 

[shift4]

lol, did you just pull those numbers from you know where?

At the end of this year, their production could be humming after ramping enduro/LFP, get a few more quarters to show a better GP trend (current lithium prices are a bonus), and the biggie external factor - the risk Cybertruck disappoints (it may not from a performance POV, but potentially price and production volume).

Just my own technical analysis of the chart.

 

[mkg3]

Given your solid track record, do you recommend buying RIVN here? If not, at what price?

I'm not a financial planner nor do I recommend any stocks, ETFs or investments in general. People have different risk tolerances and investment objectives as well as timeframe.

I see that there are people talking about Rivian technicals based on trend lines and while there are enough people that use those techniques to make trading decisions, I am a long-term investor so, again, technicals only influence sentiment and not the fundamentals.

Another bad (less than expected) quarterly numbers and it will easily tank 10~20% downside. Surprise to the upside in numbers will probably be met with a pop, then a sell off because people will cash in the gains.

I believe Rivian is at the crossroads. They really need the R2 more than the Enduro motor. Also, the investment community has lost much of faith in RJ's ability to lead the company as the CEO. Their balance sheet looks okay and the cashflow is steadily improving but not fast enough.

While Rivian does not need to raise cash again soon (after the recent convertible debt they issued), what they are competing against is 5% money market ROI with virtually no risk versus very uncertain Rivian future with negative ROI since the IPO.

Rivian needs to dramatically improve deliveries AND quality of delivered vehicles. I know people here (fans) give a huge pass for less than stellar performance because its a startup and compare to Tesla, but it does not matter in the eyes of investment community.

Rivian needs to demonstrate 2~4 consecutive quarters of beating the numbers and show real progress towards their profitability target as well as show real progress towards R2/GA factory, before seeing real upside in stock prices. Or be an acquisition target (they have very little debt and maybe an attractive LBO target for Private Equity or Sovereign Funds, even at the current interest rates, given their valuation).

With all that as a background, you can think about if its worth taking the risk or not.

 

[R1Tom]

I'm not a financial planner nor do I recommend any stocks, ETFs or investments in general. People have different risk tolerances and investment objectives as well as timeframe.

I see that there are people talking about Rivian technicals based on trend lines and while there are enough people that use those techniques to make trading decisions, I am a long-term investor so, again, technicals only influence sentiment and not the fundamentals.

Another bad (less than expected) quarterly numbers and it will easily tank 10~20% downside. Surprise to the upside in numbers will probably be met with a pop, then a sell off because people will cash in the gains.

I believe Rivian is at the crossroads. They really need the R2 more than the Enduro motor. Also, the investment community has lost much of faith in RJ's ability to lead the company as the CEO. Their balance sheet looks okay and the cashflow is steadily improving but not fast enough.

While Rivian does not need to raise cash again soon (after the recent convertible debt they issued), what they are competing against is 5% money market ROI with virtually no risk versus very uncertain Rivian future with negative ROI since the IPO.

Rivian needs to dramatically improve deliveries AND quality of delivered vehicles. I know people here (fans) give a huge pass for less than stellar performance because its a startup and compare to Tesla, but it does not matter in the eyes of investment community.

Rivian needs to demonstrate 2~4 consecutive quarters of beating the numbers and show real progress towards their profitability target as well as show real progress towards R2/GA factory, before seeing real upside in stock prices. Or be an acquisition target (they have very little debt and maybe an attractive LBO target for Private Equity or Sovereign Funds, even at the current interest rates, given their valuation).

With all that as a background, you can think about if its worth taking the risk or not.

The R2 is key and it is too far off. I think the company will need to go thru a painful period of drastically reduced demand for the R1 products and will need to trim expenses by alot to bridge the gap from a lower production/demand of R1, reduced demand from Amazon, and a R2 plant that has barely moved dirt.

 

[CGM55082]

I'm not a financial planner nor do I recommend any stocks, ETFs or investments in general. People have different risk tolerances and investment objectives as well as timeframe.

I see that there are people talking about Rivian technicals based on trend lines and while there are enough people that use those techniques to make trading decisions, I am a long-term investor so, again, technicals only influence sentiment and not the fundamentals.

Another bad (less than expected) quarterly numbers and it will easily tank 10~20% downside. Surprise to the upside in numbers will probably be met with a pop, then a sell off because people will cash in the gains.

I believe Rivian is at the crossroads. They really need the R2 more than the Enduro motor. Also, the investment community has lost much of faith in RJ's ability to lead the company as the CEO. Their balance sheet looks okay and the cashflow is steadily improving but not fast enough.

While Rivian does not need to raise cash again soon (after the recent convertible debt they issued), what they are competing against is 5% money market ROI with virtually no risk versus very uncertain Rivian future with negative ROI since the IPO.

Rivian needs to dramatically improve deliveries AND quality of delivered vehicles. I know people here (fans) give a huge pass for less than stellar performance because its a startup and compare to Tesla, but it does not matter in the eyes of investment community.

Rivian needs to demonstrate 2~4 consecutive quarters of beating the numbers and show real progress towards their profitability target as well as show real progress towards R2/GA factory, before seeing real upside in stock prices. Or be an acquisition target (they have very little debt and maybe an attractive LBO target for Private Equity or Sovereign Funds, even at the current interest rates, given their valuation).

With all that as a background, you can think about if its worth taking the risk or not.

But given all of that context, at what price do you personally buy in here, if at all?

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