ajdelange

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The first modelling I did was for 10K .....then we assumed in this forum what if the count was 30K. Rivian's lack of publicly stating the #s is making us take an educated guess with the sampling we have. If anyone gets any data on the # of pre-orders, plz post it and we can re-run the numbers.
I can throw out a number based on crude data. I wouldn't take it too seriously though.

Tesla has let slip enough information to suggest that their reservations number for the CT is around 750000. The Cybertruck Owners Club forum lists 6843 registered members. Thus, apparently, one out of every 110 people who reserves a CT is excited enough about it to join a forum exclusively devoted to discussing it. Assuming that those who reserve a Rivian are equally inclined to go online about it and given that this forum has 1145 registered members we can calculate that Rivian has 750000*1145/6843 = 125493 pre orders.
 

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How do we think Rivian will mix in R1S production when it begins?

Let's assume that by August, R1T production has ramped up to 200 vehicles per week. Do we think it more likely that the addition of the R1S to the line will add to that bumping total output to say 300 units per week? Or do we think it more likely that they will cut back on R1T production at that point to maintain 200 vehicles per week total output while introducing the R1S to the line before trying to further increase total output?
 
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That's true. The first modelling I did was for 10K .....then we assumed in this forum what if the count was 30K. Rivian's lack of publicly stating the #s is making us take an educated guess with the sampling we have. If anyone gets any data on the # of pre-orders, plz post it and we can re-run the numbers.
I now feel pretty confident the number of actual Rivian preorders (not including cancellations), is around 30K.

20200730_1355.png
 

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I now feel pretty confident the number of actual Rivian preorders (not including cancellations), is around 30K.

20200730_1355.png
Love the graph @skyote . Is it based on the data I have out or is it some other source ?
 

johnking

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How do we think Rivian will mix in R1S production when it begins?

Let's assume that by August, R1T production has ramped up to 200 vehicles per week. Do we think it more likely that the addition of the R1S to the line will add to that bumping total output to say 300 units per week? Or do we think it more likely that they will cut back on R1T production at that point to maintain 200 vehicles per week total output while introducing the R1S to the line before trying to further increase total output?
I think it will be more of the latter if they are using the same assembly line. I wish they had parallel lines. We do not know enough at this point though as they are still building the lines.
 

electruck

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I think it will be more of the latter if they are using the same assembly line. I wish they had parallel lines. We do not know enough at this point though as they are still building the lines.
They have already indicated there will be 4 lines (I've got a post around here somewhere with a link to the article documenting that). One for battery packs, one for skateboards, one for high content top hats (R1S/T) and one for low content top hats (Amazon vans).
 

whyasky

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An interesting analogue is Tesla's roll-out / ramp-up of the Model 3. Despite all differences between the two companies, they are both young or start-up auto manufacturers.

In August of 2017, just as it was starting production - with a target of 5k/wk, Tesla stated that it had 455k reservations (net of 63K reservations refunded by that date). In June of 2018, they opened orders to all reservation holders and one month later, they opened to non-reservation holders. At that time, they stated that about 24% of their reservations had been refunded. All these reservations were $1,000 (not the $100 birthday gift equivalent they now offer for the Cybertruck).

By the end of 2018, Tesla had produced and sold about 150K Model 3s with production finally hitting about 5K/wk in Q4. So it took them about 5 quarters to get their intended production rate. At the end of Q1 2019, they had produced about 210K model 3s, about 50% of the quantity of reservations net of refunds. Starting in Q4 of 2018, but definitely Q1 2019, you could put in a new order for a Model 3 (no reservation) and expect to receive your car in 8 weeks.

Obviously, some of these reservation holders were hoping for the $35K version which didn't come until mid 2019. But, it's not clear if many of them ever ended up making orders at the $37/39K level that was offered. By the second half of 2019, Tesla was delivering Model 3s into Europe where demand was strong for higher priced variants.

So how does this apply to Rivian:
1) Prioritized orders for the highly optioned / 180k&135k battery will likely get significant order preference.
2) Reservations don't convert to orders anywhere near 1:1. A reduction of at least 25% should be expected. Also, reservation holders that do convert may not do so right away (for whatever reasons).
3) It can take 12-15 months to ramp up to a steady state or target production rate. Rivian may be able to do better here because the pilot line will be up for ~10 months.
4) Whether the Amazon vans impact R1T and R1S production is a huge and unknown variable. My guess is that it's separate. But that's just a guess.
5) Unless Rivian pre-orders are VERY different in nature from Model 3, everyone should have a chance to get delivery of their car within 12-18 months of June 2021. That may not be too pleasant to hear for early reservation holders, but they'll have cars by the end of next year so they'll have something to smile about.
 
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