tscanjr

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I think it highly likely those production numbers are way too low for a couple of reasons.
1) RJ and Rivian tend to be ultraconservative on what they promise.
2) Much has changed since the 20K first year production number was hinted. Namely billions of dollars in investments and they are already expanding the building to accommodate more production.
good points....split the difference?
 

Rob P

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I can't wait till late 2022/ early 2023. Likely out if it goes that long. Pretty bummed.
 

Sully151

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I am a bit confused. Everything I have read said they only had 10,000 pre-orders at the end of December ‘19. Do you think that many people ordered during a pandemic?
 

ESTRUCK

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A pilot Rivian Skateboard frame tests out its new cradle
This week at our plant in Normal, IL, the work of thousands of Rivian team members comes together as our pilot production line begins running.

This important milestone brings us another step closer to our full production launch. It also allows us to more precisely estimate delivery timing.

R1T deliveries will begin June 2021. R1S deliveries will begin August 2021.

Keeping our team safe while making progress has been our top priority over these past few months. We look forward to sharing more updates soon, including details on key vehicle features, the date you’ll be able to configure your R1T or R1S, as well as our plans for our charging network.

Thank you for your excitement and support for what we are building.

– Team Rivian



 

ESTRUCK

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I hope they stick to that timeline. History shows multiple times that these delays one after another produce nothing in the long run. The other issue is if the Federal Government will continue the $7500.00 rebate in 2021. It is in place for 2020 but with the money shortfalls due to COVID-19 that has a good chance of being cut in 2021.
 

electruck

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I am a bit confused. Everything I have read said they only had 10,000 pre-orders at the end of December ‘19. Do you think that many people ordered during a pandemic?
Rivian has never publicly revealed the exact number of pre-orders so any numbers you may have seen were pure speculation.
 

johnking

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I think it highly likely those production numbers are way too low for a couple of reasons.
1) RJ and Rivian tend to be ultraconservative on what they promise.
2) Much has changed since the 20K first year production number was hinted. Namely billions of dollars in investments and they are already expanding the building to accommodate more production.

IMHO, 20K per year is decent and will be a great achievement for a new company. I am sure they will do better once they attain a high level of maturity. For the first 6 months, I have put it @ a run rate of 12,500 units per year. If there is guidance from Rivian in the future, I can add it to the model.
 

johnking

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Rivian has never publicly revealed the exact number of pre-orders so any numbers you may have seen were pure speculation.

That's true. The first modelling I did was for 10K .....then we assumed in this forum what if the count was 30K. Rivian's lack of publicly stating the #s is making us take an educated guess with the sampling we have. If anyone gets any data on the # of pre-orders, plz post it and we can re-run the numbers.
 

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Waiting for excelent product.....
 

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IMHO, Rivian has a hard cutoff date - the release of the Cyber Truck from Tesla.
If they don't release before the Cyber Truck, they lose the publicity of being first to this segment of the BEV market. Also, considering the price Tesla voiced for the Cyber Truck, Rivian would have to cut theirs to be competitive instead of enjoying at least a few quarters of monopoly.
Elon Musk knows this too - now this is becoming a race...
Also - I think is is highly unlikely that July/August time frame sticks, based on Tesla's struggles with initial production and COVID situation.
Want to be proven wrong :)
 
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thrill

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My thought is that the date RJ has shared with us of June 2021 is very firm internally to the company for execution. He/They've proceeded very methodically here, and I think half the reason people view it as too slow is because the only other successful car startup they compare it to is Tesla, which from my own observations and experience was a bold move but to this day suffers from less than stellar quality - but their fanbase mostly is accepting of that, and that sort of loyalty is hard to buy. Back to the point, Tesla's rapidity does not mean Rivian wants or should move at the same pace - it's a different product, with a different focus, and different commitments and long range goals. The way RJ speaks builds an expectation of absolute blue chip quality, targeting black card clients, with white glove treatment.
 

Jehorton

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Also, considering the price Tesla voiced for the Cyber Truck, Rivian would have to cut theirs to be competitive
The base price is much lower but with only one motor. I wonder what the two - three motor vehicle will come out to be. All Rivian’s will have quad motors.
 

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Here is how the delivery chat looks like. Please pay attention to the color coding. In the table below, look at the columns to see when you placed the order. The rows give you the calculated year, month when you are likely to get your car delivered.

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Fingers crossed. My condition doesn't change that much. My R1S will be ready mid-way through 2022.
Thanks for this analysis. I'm kicking myself for not pre-ordering an R1S earlier - my July 7 date doesn't even register on your chart :headbang:. I'm hoping that whenever they release the configurator there is a clearer picture of delivery times based on position on the list and variant. I'm unfortunately in the "2022/23 is too far out" camp for now ...
 
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