Rivian’s U.S. sales fell 34.9% in October (Ouch!)

[misterturbo]

Well, after last night I think EVs in general are headed for a rocky road.

You know, I'm not so sure. Politics aside, I'd wager a guess that the federal incentives start to go away next year, but that may actually be a net good thing?

The EV market needs to drive downwards in the model ranges with more affordable options. This might be a wake-up call that $80-90k EVs aren't actually what people can afford. Suede headliners are nice and all, but let's get real.

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[White Shadow]

That's probably just the carplay talking.

Every vehicle I own has CarPlay. That doesn't change the fact that I think the ZDX has nice styling. I also think the MDX Type S is a good looking Acura, but I'd never buy one. And yes, it has Car Play. LOL

 

[White Shadow]

You know, I'm not so sure. Politics aside, I'd wager a guess that the federal incentives start to go away next year, but that may actually be a net good thing?

The EV market needs to drive downwards in the model ranges with more affordable options. This might be a wake-up call that $80-90k EVs aren't actually what people can afford. Suede headliners are nice and all, but let's get real.

Gasoline prices have been declining. I fully expect them to keep declining over the next few years. That alone is going to hurt EV adoption. The numbers just aren't going to add up for the vast majority of people.

 

[misterturbo]

Gasoline prices have been declining. I fully expect them to keep declining over the next few years. That alone is going to hurt EV adoption. The numbers just aren't going to add up for the vast majority of people.

Concur on that, traditional fuel prices have been on the downward trend, will we see them coming down to the sub $2/gal price in the near future, who's to know?

Once we can solve the charging station situation (seems unlikely to get federally incentivized now, really), the proposition for EV still exists on operating costs alone. ASSUMING gas and EV vehicles come down to the same price...

There are a lot of selling points of EVs that manufacturers will need to start emphasizing outside of just not using gasoline.. like speed/acceleration, storage, cabin quietness and space.

Time will tell

 

[Sparkland]

The Prologue is a rebadged Chevrolet Blazer, not a Cadillac Lyriq. Most of the Prologue sales are actually leases, since the rates are so good.

 

[BigSkies]

Concur on that, traditional fuel prices have been on the downward trend, will we see them coming down to the sub $2/gal price in the near future, who's to know?

Once we can solve the charging station situation (seems unlikely to get federally incentivized now, really), the proposition for EV still exists on operating costs alone. ASSUMING gas and EV vehicles come down to the same price...

There are a lot of selling points of EVs that manufacturers will need to start emphasizing outside of just not using gasoline.. like speed/acceleration, storage, cabin quietness and space.

Time will tell

Agreed. When you look at EV’s, and the broader package of climate solutions, you need two things for these technologies to take off on their own right:

1. Expensive hydrocarbons
2. Relatively inexpensive electricity

The various climate solutions that exist would succeed on their own right with this combination. But no politician is about to campaign on higher gas prices.

Watching this market evolve is fascinating. If there’s one thing the oil companies fear, it’s extremely cheap oil. They don’t want the market to be oversupplied. Particularly if the investor narrative ties it to declining global demand. OPEC doesn’t seem able or willing to meaningfully constrain supply right now, and I don’t see US based producers pulling back.

If anything, I suspect we’re going to see an oversupplied oil market. Which isn’t great for the EV industry. It’s probably worse for the oil industry though.

 

[R1TS]

You know, I'm not so sure. Politics aside, I'd wager a guess that the federal incentives start to go away next year, but that may actually be a net good thing?

The EV market needs to drive downwards in the model ranges with more affordable options. This might be a wake-up call that $80-90k EVs aren't actually what people can afford. Suede headliners are nice and all, but let's get real.

A good thing?

Someone is overly optimistic.

If Rivian could have gone lower in price with a cheaper entry R1S, they would have by now. Unless RJ is that stupid thinking $110K vehicles will save the company instead of $65K vehicles.

And, with gas prices going lower with Trump, ICE is going to stay a little more popular for longer.

 

[richguess]

It’s based on the Equinox. (The Prologue.)
Rivian stock down this AM on the election news, below $10. Glad I sold some $9.5 covered calls. I still want that damn R2, sure hope it comes soon. But my T M3 L/R isn’t a bad alternative until then.

 

[waitingonanr1s]

It’s based on the Equinox. (The Prologue.)
Rivian stock down this AM on the election news, below $10. Glad I sold some $9.5 covered calls. I still want that damn R2, sure hope it comes soon. But my T M3 L/R isn’t a bad alternative until then.

That's likely a component, but I think the larger driver of today's decline is pessimistic feelings about Q3 earnings release tomorrow - that's why I sold 2/3 of my shares after the Q3 production news. RIVN down almost 9%, but Lucid is only down 3% and Tesla is up almost 12%.

Hoping to rebuy in sometime after earnings release. $9 is tempting, but I think we're going down to $8 tomorrow.

 

[richguess]

I hope not! Want my $9.5’s to get exercised! OC course, the stick was near $10.5 a week ago.

 

[White Shadow]

Concur on that, traditional fuel prices have been on the downward trend, will we see them coming down to the sub $2/gal price in the near future, who's to know?

Once we can solve the charging station situation (seems unlikely to get federally incentivized now, really), the proposition for EV still exists on operating costs alone. ASSUMING gas and EV vehicles come down to the same price...

There are a lot of selling points of EVs that manufacturers will need to start emphasizing outside of just not using gasoline.. like speed/acceleration, storage, cabin quietness and space.

Time will tell

Yeah, it will be interesting to say the least. I think cost will be the determining factor for the majority of people, especially those who aren't yet in EVs, so it's important for EV manufacturers (especially those who ONLY make EVs) to get that value proposition in check. And that's the big challenge, especially now.

 

[DaveInCA]

https://eletric-vehicles.com/rivian/rivian-us-sales-drop-34-in-october-to-3380-units/

Rivian’s U.S. sales fell 34.9% in October, with the electric vehicle maker delivering an estimated 3,380 units, down from 5,195 in September and 5,133 in August — according to data from Motor Intelligence released Monday.

Early reservation holders needed to take delivery by September 30th or lose their discount. A huge falloff is sale for October was expected.

 

[kenyee]

gas prices going lower with Trump, ICE is going to stay a little more popular for longer

Lower prices are more because China isn't consuming as much (in a recession) and there is overproduction.
But most people are also better served with hybrids...save gas 90% of the time and can refill quickly on longer trips.
EVs are more fun to drive though ?

 

[Golfer04]

Lower prices are more because China isn't consuming as much (in a recession) and there is overproduction.
But most people are also better served with hybrids...save gas 90% of the time and can refill quickly on longer trips.
EVs are more fun to drive though ?

Been financing energy for over 30 yrs. Amazing how many people think oil production is influenced by who the president is. US government doesn't produce oil (they don't own a rig....not one). Saudi Arabia predicted $55 oil this winter if OPEC members didn't stop exceeding quotas. Primarily Iran (and others) to pay for Gaza war. As prices decline will oil companies reduce their domestic US production? Likely. Highest domestic US production in history was 2023 under a democrat president. Has to do with price not the president. EVs all need to change marketing to quality and ease of ownership, and, oh yea, has other side benefits too.

 

[cardad]

Not surprising. The issue is going to be 2025. Shipping higher priced trims in Tri-Max and Quad-Max will move very, very few incremental units but at a needed pop in ASP.

The real challenge is needing to drop the entry point of R1S to $69,990 to open more buyers. The question is whether they can profitably produce and sell R1S at this price. Otherwise Rivian is stuck in the deep water without a paddle and nowhere to go.

If I were a C-level exec at Rivian I'd put a SWAT team on figuring out how to make this happen. There is a large enough market for 2WD SUV's so dropping a motor, retrimming the interior (cloth over vinyl seats), drop speakers, remove carpeted trunk mat replacing with a hard deck floor and third-row delete might get them close. Think base Land Rover Defender 110. Then they would have a competitive entry that can even nip at the large pool of Honda Pilot/Toyota HIghlander/Acura MDX/BMW X5/Audi Q7 buyers, especially if interest rates drop further.

They’re not doing any of these things because the R2 will bring that price point down. There’s no point tweaking an already chaotic production line. They just need demand and the current market for EVs is over supplied and high rates don’t help.

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