Revisiting the accuracy of Motor Intelligence sales figures

[ThirteenElectrics]

As you may recall, Motor Intelligence posted slow sales for Rivian in January, which was picked up by this thread: [LOCKED DUE TO INACCURATE FIGURES] Rivian U.S. Sales January 2025. Someone then claimed they had an "inside source" that these numbers were "inaccurate". At best, that's hearsay and speculation; at worse it's a leak of material non-public information and market manipulation (SEC, are you listening? Or have you all been fired?). Subsequently, the thread was locked, probably by someone who has a lot of money tied up (lost) in Rivian stock.

So, how well did Motor Intelligence do? Fast forward to the present. Even though Rivian was due to report sales that same day, MI gave a Q1 estimate of 11,070 for Q1. This is difficult because MI likely uses state registration data for their sales figures, and that data wouldn't be available for the last month of the quarter so soon after the quarter ended. So, the quarter total is definitely a guess due to error in the last quarter.

While we don't have monthly breakouts, Rivian's official sales numbers were 8,640.

So, yes, MI is indeed inaccurate; they overestimated actual sales by 28%.

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[Gentilly7]

Wow! Not a single response. Too many Rivian cultist with rose colored lenses. Well, I’m responding because I find the observation insightful. And no, you are not a hater, troll or short seller for pointing this info out.

It will be interesting to see how Q2 sales go as consumer confidence has tanked and Rivian’s incentives have not been that great. Let’s hope they have some demand levers waiting to be pulled.