Realistic Delivery Schedule?

[electruck]

Here are my assumptions as to LE:
1. Anyone who put a deposit down before 11/23/20 ( this is not sorted) so I took out all the entries after 11/22/20
2. Anyone ordering the 300 mile Pack
3. The list is broken down between the 2 Vehicles.

I can’t imagine someone would order before 11/23 and not want delivery in 2021. I excluded the people with the 400 mile pack as obviously those deliveries are 2022 and not part of LE.

If my assumptions are correct anyone can roughly figure out when they will get their Vehicles. You just figure out based on your reservation date where you stand. Let’s say your reservation date shows that out of the sample on the spreadsheet, on the other Forum, you are 75th out of 150 people. You can assume that( if you ordered the RIS) you will get your car around 2.5 months after they start delivering. This is based on a 5 month(R1S) delivery schedule. I have no way of knowing what the ramp up is so just assume it’s equal per month. I know this is not correct but we also don’t know how many cars will be manufactured before the start date. Hope this is clear.

In addition to those waiting for the "Max" battery pack, a number of people ordering the R1S did not get LE because they are waiting for the 5 seat option which is not available until 2022 post-LE.

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[Mathmonkey]

In addition to those waiting for the "Max" battery pack, a number of people ordering the R1S did not get LE because they are waiting for the 5 seat option which is not available until 2022 post-LE.

We can reasonably exclude anyone listing their edition as explorer as well, although I did see some that put yes on both explorer and adventure (also not sure what two no's means).

I guess the major assumption is that the distribution of people filling out that survey mirrors the distribution of orders. Probably a decent assumption, and it could be tested.

I follow your thought process and like it. I need to look at this on the computer to check mine out.

 

[St Bernard]

I ignored the Package column as I could not figure out if it was accurate for the reason you stated. I was just trying to get a rough idea as to when I might possibly get my delivery.

 

[Canthoney]

Ha, the chat representative told me that I should stop listening to the information on the forums, and that they weren’t accurate. My answer was well I don’t know what else to do every time I ask you guys it’s always “that information is forthcoming”.

 

[Rhidan]

Go to the RIVIAN Owners Forum. They list 360 total orders( for both Models) and u have to go through these numbers. I only looked at LE Vehicles. I would think they would release sales numbers especially if the numbers are good. But u are correct they don’t have to release anything. By the way 60% of the Reservations are for the R1T.

I understand the desire to use this data to predict delivery schedule, and it may be the only data points to make a prediction, but I think there are way too many assumptions here to make a reliable guess. Just a few assumptions:

1. Is the data from the forum a reliable sample of Rivian pre-orders?
2. Is there enough data to consider it a representative sample?
3. Is the data accurate? (i.e. will all these people follow through on their Rivian order?)
4. Will Rivian's production follow a linear pattern? (i.e. produce the same amount of vehicles each month?)
5. Will production be limited by any Rivian suppliers (i.e. will they only have so many batteries on hand in the first few months?)
6. Will production be based on certain options/features in order to streamline their manufacturing line? (i.e. will they make all the LE vehicles with an Ocean Coast interior first?)
7. Will delivery be based only on reservation number, or will they cluster delivery based on customer geography?

 

[St Bernard]

I understand the desire to use this data to predict delivery schedule, and it may be the only data points to make a prediction, but I think there are way too many assumptions here to make a reliable guess. Just a few assumptions:

1. Is the data from the forum a reliable sample of Rivian pre-orders?
2. Is there enough data to consider it a representative sample?
3. Is the data accurate? (i.e. will all these people follow through on their Rivian order?)
4. Will Rivian's production follow a linear pattern? (i.e. produce the same amount of vehicles each month?)
5. Will production be limited by any Rivian suppliers (i.e. will they only have so many batteries on hand in the first few months?)
6. Will production be based on certain options/features in order to streamline their manufacturing line? (i.e. will they make all the LE vehicles with an Ocean Coast interior first?)
7. Will delivery be based only on reservation number, or will they cluster delivery based on customer geography?

I will let you know when I get my R1S. I have no idea if my assumptions are close to accurate. But I have no other info. Originally RIVIAN told us when we configured we would see different delivery dates. I didn’t realize the delivery info would be in 6-12 month segments.

 

[skyote]

I will let you know when I get my R1S. I have no idea if my assumptions are close to accurate. But I have no other info. Originally RIVIAN told us when we configured we would see different delivery dates. I didn’t realize the delivery info would be in 6-12 month segments.

They are supposed to provide tighter delivery windows in 2021 based on our actual configs. In the mean time, I'll be working with some of the actual preorder # data I've collected & projections based on some statements & references plus assumptions/estimates that I'll walk through. There are a lot of potential variables & margin for error (@Rhidan covered some of these), but should be interesting once I have the time to dig in after the holidays. I have a plan, but not the time to do the work putting it together yet.

Might get something out before New Years, but stay tuned.

 

[DucRider]

There are a lot of potential variables & margin for error

The biggest of which is that configuring a LE came with no commitment.
You could configure a Launch Edition and switch to something else later, but not the other way around.
I don't know if I want the LE R1T, but that is what I configured. I won't know for sure until "details are released closer to the launch date" (and I can see and drive both the R1T and R1S).

It is a safe assumption that they are planning on delivering all LEs in 2021 as that is part of the package (priority delivery). The cut off LE configurations at the point they calculated they could provide them (with a % buffer for cancelations?). They can always open it up again later if they can produce more than are spoken for, or just shift production to non LEs and deliver early.

 

[MReda]

I agree with everyone who is pointing out any conclusions are based on a lot of assumptions and ultimately meaningless since some key information is missing... but what else do we have going on? Might as well have some fun with it.

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