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R1S Lease vs. Buy - I did the math

phaduman

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Thanks. So rent * 36 months = $21K in "rent" alone - not including the monthly depreciation charge. So for a truck that depreciates $39K in 3yrs, the "rent" is $21K (+ one has to pay $38K/36 =$1K/month a total of $1600/month). Isn't that close to absurd (58% of the depreciation amount in 3yrs in rent)?
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tjrivian

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Thanks. So rent * 36 months = $21K in "rent" alone - not including the monthly depreciation charge. So for a truck that depreciates $39K in 3yrs, the "rent" is $21K (+ one has to pay $38K/36 =$1K/month a total of $1600/month). Isn't that close to absurd (58% of the depreciation amount in 3yrs in rent)?
Yep it absolutely is absurd. But that's what you get when you're borrowing an average of ~$90k for 3 years at 7.8% interest. Remember that if you pay cash instead of lease, then you gave Rivian ~$100k that you could have had invested in bank account of stock/funds instead.
 

phaduman

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So, perhaps I used the wrong term, MSRP, but what I really meant is the Gross Capitalized Cost.
1733893739670-74.jpg


Why are residuals always whole or half percentages?
@Jivian - you can see in this example, the "rent" (f) is $20K for a $25K in depreciation (e). Bank is definitely not charging rent only on the depreciation amount at the APR equivalent...

vs traditional loan (APR interest calculation e.g. for a 6yr loan), the lease "rent" in 36 months - the difference is night and day. The only way to come out good is with #4 - and buyout early from lease - the rent cost will ecplise all other comparable interest-type loans.
 

DaveInCA

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Hey Everyone,

I've seen lots of discussions comparing leasing to buying but I haven't seen many examples with specific math comparing the options considering the lease is the only way to get the $7500 EV credit. To decide between leasing and buying my Storm Blue R1S Trimax in California, I compared the Net Present Value (NPV) of a few situations:

  1. Buying the car outright in cash
  2. Leasing the car with a 36 month, 12000 mile lease using a 4% NPV discount rate and buying after the lease term
  3. Leasing the car with a 36 month, 12000 mile lease using a 6% NPV discount rate and buying after the lease term
  4. Leasing the car with a 36 month, 12000 mile lease using a 4% NPV discount rate and buying it out after 1 month
Spoiler Alert: I went with Scenario 4 because it could* save me over $13K compared to Scenario 1.
*there are a bunch of assumptions

First, an aside about NPV. You can obviously look up NPV on Google, but here's how I think about it in the context of buying a Rivian. NPV is the amount of money you need now to be able to payoff an amount in the future. So, for example, how much money would you need today to pay $1000 each year for 10 years? Isn't it just $10,000 you might ask? Sure, if you're keeping the money under your mattress. If you're earning 4% in a high yield savings account, how much would you need to put in today in order to pay the $1000 payments for 10 years?


Formula:

NPV = Σ(t=1 to n) [Cash Flow / (1 + r)^t]

  • Cash Flow: 1000 (annual expense)
  • r: Discount rate (4%)
  • t: Year (1 to 10)
  • n: Number of years (10)
4% Discount Rate:

NPV₄% = Σ(t=1 to 10) [-1000 / (1.04)^t]

  • Year 1: -1000 / 1.04¹ = -961.54
  • Year 2: -1000 / 1.04² = -924.56
  • Year 3: -1000 / 1.04³ = -889.00
  • ...
  • Total NPV₄%: 8110.90
So, you would only need about $8111 to pay what adds up to $10,000 if you had a savings account earning 4% (ignoring taxes and some other timing complexities). In other words, the present value of $1000 per year for 10 years is a $8111 at a 4% discount rate. With me?

What about 6%? Would you need less or more money? Less, if you're earning more interest. The NPV for a 6% discount rate is only $7360 in order to pay $1000 per year for 10 years.

Ok, if you're still with me I compared the the NPV of each scenario to find the lowest NPV (cheapest way).

Here it is:

Item
Scenario 1:
Cash Purchase
Scenario 2:
Lease Full Term @4%
Scenario 3:
Lease Full Term 6%
Scenario 4:
Lease w/ immediate buyout 4%
Time (months)Cash Flow Lease Full Term
Trade In$5,320$5,320$5,320$5,3201$10,571.81
Vehicle Price$108,400$108,400$108,400$108,4002$1,391.62
Acquisition Fee$0$895$895$8953$1,391.62
Destination Fee$1,800$1,800$1,800$1,8004$1,391.62
Documentation Fee$85$85$85$855$1,391.62
License Fee$997$997$997$9976$1,391.62
Sub Total$111,282$112,177$112,177$112,1777$1,391.62
Sales Tax$10,294$1,305$1,305$1,3058$1,391.62
Residual w/tax$0$0$0$09$1,391.62
EV Credit$0$7,500$7,500$7,50010$1,391.62
Monthly Payment$0$1,392$1,392$1,39211$1,391.62
Deposit$500$500$500$50012$1,391.62
Initial Registration fee$71$71$71$7113$1,391.62
Tire Fee$7$7$7$714$1,391.62
Cash Outlay$121,654$10,572$10,572$10,57215$1,391.62
Montly Depreciation+ Taxes$0$682$682$68216$1,391.62
Residual at Buyout (incl Tax + equity)N/AN/AN/A$97,93917$1,391.62
Total (NPV)$121,654$125,171$119,662$107,82618$1,391.62
Difference from Cash purchaseN/A$3,518-$1,992-$13,82819$1,391.62
20$1,391.62
21$1,391.62
22$1,391.62
23$1,391.62
24$1,391.62
25$1,391.62
26$1,391.62
27$1,391.62
28$1,391.62
29$1,391.62
30$1,391.62
31$1,391.62
32$1,391.62
33$1,391.62
34$1,391.62
35$1,391.62
36$1,391.62
37$77,912.73
Total Cash$137,191.24

So, since I can't format the table exactly how I want, the relevant lines to look at are the Total (NPV) and the Difference from Cash purchase

Scenarios:
  1. NPV = $121,654 and there is no difference from cash because this is the cash purchase
  2. NPV = $125,171 and this is $3518 more expensive than cash purchase
  3. NPV = $119,662 and this is $1992 cheaper than a cash purchase
  4. NPV = $107,826 and this is $13,282 cheaper than a cash purchase

For the most part, these are accurate numbers. The lease numbers are from my actual lease terms for our vehicle. Unfortunately, after I initiated the lease, the cash payment terms option in my Rivian account disappeared (which I hadn't saved) so I had to make some assumptions on the fees but I don't think it affects the overall math very much as it should be close. The far and away biggest assumption is the residual at the end of the early buyout. I calculated that by taking the MSRP and subtracting the cash I put down plus 1 month worth of depreciation. I haven't actually bought the lease out yet as I just took delivery this weekend (so far, the Tri is awesome btw but don't want to dilute this post with a review). Once I actually get the the buyout quote from Chase, I'll be able to plug in exact numbers.

Some discussion points:

  • Worst case, the lease is slightly more expensive than cash (Scenario 2) given the assumptions
  • I'm not in a rush to buyout the lease super early so I can make sure we really like the vehicle (it's our first EV) and a couple of months won't make a huge math difference
  • The $7500 helps equalize scenarios but something else is going on too (and it could be an error on my part) In my math, it seems you also save on sales tax as the trade in reduces the capitalized cost and taxes but I might be wrong on that once I see the residual quote from Chase.
  • But what if I buy the lease early and then want to get rid of the vehicle in 3 years? Doesn't really make a difference unless I can't sell the vehicle for at least $13k less than the residual. In other words, as long as I can sell the vehicle for $58K at 3 years (71K residual) I'll break even with the lease. Before you ask, the residual was about $71K but the spreadsheet shows the residual plus CA sales tax, hence the higher value in the sheet.
  • What about buying out the lease early and then financing? You do the math! But, in general, I would only come out ahead if I then invested the cash in something that is likely earning significantly more than the financing interesting rate. I might do the math when I cross that bridge and get real numbers and fees to compare.
So, long story short, I'm leasing my Trimax and then planning to buy it out early. See flaws in my logic or math? Point them out before I buy out the lease.
In California, you typically pay a use tax instead of sales tax when you lease. So, you avoid paying the sales tax on the entire vehicle, which lowers the lease payment and has some time value to the money. If you leased the vehicle for the entire term and turn it in, you will have never paid sales tax on the entire value of the vehicle, just the lease payment (which includes interest!).
 

DayTripping

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The money factor is just crazy on these leases. Almost double what I pay on my loan.

Always good to treat an auto as an expense. Almost always you lose money on them. Recent times with my Teslas I sold 2 of them when everything was crazy during covid for 20 & 30% more than I paid for them even after driving them for some time. Doubt I'll see anything like that again in my lifetime.
 

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I myself don't smile, or chuckle, or have anything to say at all for how people go about dealing with their financial decisions. It is their decision alone to make based on their circumstances. I respect that.

IN my case, I have no interest whatsoever in ever reselling either of my Teslas or my R1S. I could not care less either about how much my EVs might be worth one, two, three years down the road or right now. Heck, each might as well be worth $0 today for all I care. It matters not to me.

(Edited to cut to the chase).
My principle on financial matters like this is simple: if I cannot afford something (pay cash), I neither buy it nor need it.
My principle is inline with yours. Why chuckle at people who pay cash because they can do it? Let me ask them if they chuckle at people who's buying bonds. Different strokes for different folks.

And EV depreciation - I care less about it because I care more about enjoying ownership and what I can do with it.
 

cevans

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Not only does this way over complicate things it really isn't a good application of NPV which is designed to discount future cash flows. We're not calculating the discount rate of a bond here, you're not trying to value future income - you're buying a depreciating asset. Yes money today is worth more than money tomorrow, and your 4% is compounding, but all that is really besides the point - the depreciation is the biggest factor here, the rest is pennies in comparison.

Things to consider though:
  • Buying a vehicle with someone else's money provides short term flexibility and some form of protection in the case that an accident which totals the vehicle.
  • You can ALWAYS buy out a loan, you can't take a loan out on a car you already own (well, you can but for these purposes, no)
  • On a lease you are transferring the risk of depreciation onto another party. Considering the rapid progress in the EV market and drastic drop in resale values, paying a few thousand in lease factor to transfer that risk might be reasonable.
 

bigsky

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Not only does this way over complicate things it really isn't a good application of NPV which is designed to discount future cash flows. We're not calculating the discount rate of a bond here, you're not trying to value future income - you're buying a depreciating asset. Yes money today is worth more than money tomorrow, and your 4% is compounding, but all that is really besides the point - the depreciation is the biggest factor here, the rest is pennies in comparison.

Things to consider though:
  • Buying a vehicle with someone else's money provides short term flexibility and some form of protection in the case that an accident which totals the vehicle.
  • You can ALWAYS buy out a loan, you can't take a loan out on a car you already own (well, you can but for these purposes, no)
  • On a lease you are transferring the risk of depreciation onto another party. Considering the rapid progress in the EV market and drastic drop in resale values, paying a few thousand in lease factor to transfer that risk might be reasonable.
First of all, hold it right there. A car IS NOT an asset. A car IS NOT an investment. a car is AN EXPENSE. Just making sure you are aware of that.

Buying a vehicle with someone else's money means you are told what to do. It is not your vehicle, yet you are responsible for the care of it.
You can buy out a loan, all right. You still will have paid/flushed down the toilet money in the form of interest. Tack it on to the cost.
A lease, you are still told what to do. There is even a limit on how much you can drive it, or else tack on more fees on top of other fees.

Paying cash always over going into debt and what is better is an argument the latter cannot ever win. It does not matter how much lipstick you try to slap onto the debt pig. It is still a debt pig. As for me, there is no way in hell I ever shall go back to loans of any kind for anything, not even the generic 0% over however many months. Total financial freedom rules.
 

bigsky

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My principle is inline with yours. Why chuckle at people who pay cash because they can do it? Let me ask them if they chuckle at people who's buying bonds. Different strokes for different folks.

And EV depreciation - I care less about it because I care more about enjoying ownership and what I can do with it.
Exactly. Depreciation may be on the minds of those who think they might have no choice but to sell it down the road for whatever reason. Or perhaps can no longer afford the note. Or trade it in. As I mentioned, I could not care less about the resale value of my EVs if I tried. The thrill, the joy of driving them never gets old. That is the only APPRECIATING asset in my view, what matters to me the most. Dollar value thereof, ho-hum.
 

cevans

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First of all, hold it right there. A car IS NOT an asset. A car IS NOT an investment. a car is AN EXPENSE. Just making sure you are aware of that.
Wrong...just, wrong. The is basic accounting assets vs. expenses. You buy a vehicle, it has value, that value depreciates over time, but it has value until it depreciates to nothing. If you feel like learning something take a look at Hertz financial statements - vehicles are assets.

Expenses don't depreciate. You cannot resell an expense. Again, accounting 101.

You can buy out a loan, all right. You still will have paid/flushed down the toilet money in the form of interest. Tack it on to the cost.
Again, just wrong. The whole point of the OPs thread is to attempt to quantify a time-value-money equation to a car by looking at alternative scenarios for the capital. You can't really do that due to the depreciation, but, the question of what is the best way to maximize your money is a good one. I'm not sure why you're so eager to reject basic finance.

It does not matter how much lipstick you try to slap onto the debt pig. It is still a debt pig. As for me, there is no way in hell I ever shall go back to loans of any kind for anything, not even the generic 0% over however many months. Total financial freedom rules.
Look - you're in some sort of political, personal "how I live my life" mumbo jumbo here. You do you, you do what you think is best for you. I have no qualms at all about you living your life, and I'm not trying to tell you what to do. I know nothing about you or your life.

As far as the world of finances works, debt is a *tool*, it is not inherently good or bad by itself, though there is a limit where debt becomes a burden or a threat to operational health - on the other hand not having any is typically considered a bad thing too.

If you want to learn more take a finance course or a business course. If not, go live your life as you're comfortable, that's good too!
 
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bigsky

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Wrong...just, wrong. The is basic accounting assets vs. expenses. You buy a vehicle, it has value, that value depreciates over time, but it has value until it depreciates to nothing. If you feel like learning something take a look at Hertz financial statements - vehicles are assets.

Expenses don't depreciate. You cannot resell an expense. Again, accounting 101.



Again, just wrong. The whole point of the OPs thread is to attempt to quantify a time-value-money equation to a car by looking at alternative scenarios for the capital. You can't really do that due to the depreciation, but, the question of what is the best way to maximize your money is a good one. I'm not sure why you're so eager to reject basic finance.



Look - you're in some sort of political, personal "how I live my life" mumbo jumbo here. You do you, you do what you think is best for you. I have no qualms at all about you living your life, and I'm not trying to tell you what to do. I know nothing about you or your life.

As far as the world of finances works, debt is a *tool*, it is not inherently good or bad by itself, though there is a limit where debt becomes a burden or a threat to operational health - on the other hand not having any is typically considered a bad thing too.

If you want to learn more take a finance course or a business course. If don't go live your life as you're comfortable, that's good too!
Exactly. Living my life exactly where I wanted to be in my book. No debt of any kind, cc, auto, mortgage, nothing. Never subservient to any entity, bank or otherwise. I alone tell myself what to do. Know enough finance to successfully have arrived to where I am at. That is the utmost greatest place to be in. Complete finsncial freedom; can get what I want when I want it by paying cash, no permission or approval from anybody else. Would not have it any other way, and it is such a beautiful place. One has to get there to undetstand it and appreciate it.
To each his/her own. In the end, debt-free rules.
 

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Hey Everyone,

I've seen lots of discussions comparing leasing to buying but I haven't seen many examples with specific math comparing the options considering the lease is the only way to get the $7500 EV credit. To decide between leasing and buying my Storm Blue R1S Trimax in California, I compared the Net Present Value (NPV) of a few situations:

  1. Buying the car outright in cash
  2. Leasing the car with a 36 month, 12000 mile lease using a 4% NPV discount rate and buying after the lease term
  3. Leasing the car with a 36 month, 12000 mile lease using a 6% NPV discount rate and buying after the lease term
  4. Leasing the car with a 36 month, 12000 mile lease using a 4% NPV discount rate and buying it out after 1 month
Spoiler Alert: I went with Scenario 4 because it could* save me over $13K compared to Scenario 1.
*there are a bunch of assumptions

First, an aside about NPV. You can obviously look up NPV on Google, but here's how I think about it in the context of buying a Rivian. NPV is the amount of money you need now to be able to payoff an amount in the future. So, for example, how much money would you need today to pay $1000 each year for 10 years? Isn't it just $10,000 you might ask? Sure, if you're keeping the money under your mattress. If you're earning 4% in a high yield savings account, how much would you need to put in today in order to pay the $1000 payments for 10 years?


Formula:

NPV = Σ(t=1 to n) [Cash Flow / (1 + r)^t]

  • Cash Flow: 1000 (annual expense)
  • r: Discount rate (4%)
  • t: Year (1 to 10)
  • n: Number of years (10)
4% Discount Rate:

NPV₄% = Σ(t=1 to 10) [-1000 / (1.04)^t]

  • Year 1: -1000 / 1.04¹ = -961.54
  • Year 2: -1000 / 1.04² = -924.56
  • Year 3: -1000 / 1.04³ = -889.00
  • ...
  • Total NPV₄%: 8110.90
So, you would only need about $8111 to pay what adds up to $10,000 if you had a savings account earning 4% (ignoring taxes and some other timing complexities). In other words, the present value of $1000 per year for 10 years is a $8111 at a 4% discount rate. With me?

What about 6%? Would you need less or more money? Less, if you're earning more interest. The NPV for a 6% discount rate is only $7360 in order to pay $1000 per year for 10 years.

Ok, if you're still with me I compared the the NPV of each scenario to find the lowest NPV (cheapest way).

Here it is:

Item
Scenario 1:
Cash Purchase
Scenario 2:
Lease Full Term @4%
Scenario 3:
Lease Full Term 6%
Scenario 4:
Lease w/ immediate buyout 4%
Time (months)Cash Flow Lease Full Term
Trade In$5,320$5,320$5,320$5,3201$10,571.81
Vehicle Price$108,400$108,400$108,400$108,4002$1,391.62
Acquisition Fee$0$895$895$8953$1,391.62
Destination Fee$1,800$1,800$1,800$1,8004$1,391.62
Documentation Fee$85$85$85$855$1,391.62
License Fee$997$997$997$9976$1,391.62
Sub Total$111,282$112,177$112,177$112,1777$1,391.62
Sales Tax$10,294$1,305$1,305$1,3058$1,391.62
Residual w/tax$0$0$0$09$1,391.62
EV Credit$0$7,500$7,500$7,50010$1,391.62
Monthly Payment$0$1,392$1,392$1,39211$1,391.62
Deposit$500$500$500$50012$1,391.62
Initial Registration fee$71$71$71$7113$1,391.62
Tire Fee$7$7$7$714$1,391.62
Cash Outlay$121,654$10,572$10,572$10,57215$1,391.62
Montly Depreciation+ Taxes$0$682$682$68216$1,391.62
Residual at Buyout (incl Tax + equity)N/AN/AN/A$97,93917$1,391.62
Total (NPV)$121,654$125,171$119,662$107,82618$1,391.62
Difference from Cash purchaseN/A$3,518-$1,992-$13,82819$1,391.62
20$1,391.62
21$1,391.62
22$1,391.62
23$1,391.62
24$1,391.62
25$1,391.62
26$1,391.62
27$1,391.62
28$1,391.62
29$1,391.62
30$1,391.62
31$1,391.62
32$1,391.62
33$1,391.62
34$1,391.62
35$1,391.62
36$1,391.62
37$77,912.73
Total Cash$137,191.24

So, since I can't format the table exactly how I want, the relevant lines to look at are the Total (NPV) and the Difference from Cash purchase

Scenarios:
  1. NPV = $121,654 and there is no difference from cash because this is the cash purchase
  2. NPV = $125,171 and this is $3518 more expensive than cash purchase
  3. NPV = $119,662 and this is $1992 cheaper than a cash purchase
  4. NPV = $107,826 and this is $13,282 cheaper than a cash purchase

For the most part, these are accurate numbers. The lease numbers are from my actual lease terms for our vehicle. Unfortunately, after I initiated the lease, the cash payment terms option in my Rivian account disappeared (which I hadn't saved) so I had to make some assumptions on the fees but I don't think it affects the overall math very much as it should be close. The far and away biggest assumption is the residual at the end of the early buyout. I calculated that by taking the MSRP and subtracting the cash I put down plus 1 month worth of depreciation. I haven't actually bought the lease out yet as I just took delivery this weekend (so far, the Tri is awesome btw but don't want to dilute this post with a review). Once I actually get the the buyout quote from Chase, I'll be able to plug in exact numbers.

Some discussion points:

  • Worst case, the lease is slightly more expensive than cash (Scenario 2) given the assumptions
  • I'm not in a rush to buyout the lease super early so I can make sure we really like the vehicle (it's our first EV) and a couple of months won't make a huge math difference
  • The $7500 helps equalize scenarios but something else is going on too (and it could be an error on my part) In my math, it seems you also save on sales tax as the trade in reduces the capitalized cost and taxes but I might be wrong on that once I see the residual quote from Chase.
  • But what if I buy the lease early and then want to get rid of the vehicle in 3 years? Doesn't really make a difference unless I can't sell the vehicle for at least $13k less than the residual. In other words, as long as I can sell the vehicle for $58K at 3 years (71K residual) I'll break even with the lease. Before you ask, the residual was about $71K but the spreadsheet shows the residual plus CA sales tax, hence the higher value in the sheet.
  • What about buying out the lease early and then financing? You do the math! But, in general, I would only come out ahead if I then invested the cash in something that is likely earning significantly more than the financing interesting rate. I might do the math when I cross that bridge and get real numbers and fees to compare.
So, long story short, I'm leasing my Trimax and then planning to buy it out early. See flaws in my logic or math? Point them out before I buy out the lease.
I'm a long time cash buyer, but the $7500 savings on a lease is making me think otherwise.
I like your NPV calculator. I think that the earnings rates you suggest is interpreted as earnings after inflation. I like to think of the cash outlay as how much annual earning I'm losing every year by not having the money working for me.

I'm thinking 3 Yr lease as I'm pretty sure that the EVs available in 3 yrs will have features/capabilities that today's EVs do not have.

Either case, the math shows how expensive it is to own a car for 10 yrs. Cash outlay of $90,000/365/10 ~ $25 per day just doing a flat out division. But then if you earn 6% on that money over 10 yrs (non-compounded), then you are missing out on 0.06*90,000/365 ~ $15 per day.
 
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tjrivian

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I'm a long time cash buyer, but the $7500 savings on a lease is making me think otherwise.
One thing many people missing (including myself) and in your math too, is the value of the cash you give up. If you pay cash, you have to realize that you could have had that money in an asset that yields 6% annually. So if you part with 50,000, then you are losing $3,000 annually before taxes. Getting a 6% return these days is not hard - either in preferred stock with qualified dividends or tax free munibonds. If you don't invest and keep it in a < 1% MM fund, then this doesn't apply to you. Pick your favorite rate of return 2%, 3%, or whatever and realize that you are losing that earning power when you pay cash.

I'm thinking 3 Yr lease as I'm pretty sure that the EVs available in 3 yrs will have features/capabilities that today's EVs do not have.
That's precisely what the OP did in their calculations by running scenarios with different NPV discount rates.
 
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TM1

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That's precisely what the OP did in their calculations by running scenarios with different NPV discount rates.
You are quite right. I will modify my comment. I'm not a finance person, but am a numbers person.
 

DD4ST

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When I went through a similar analysis before leasing my R1T, I built a spreadsheet that built in inflation and return on my investments from not having to lay out >$80K on day 1. I did not have the knowledge on financial formulas like NPV, so built in monthly steps to take care of compounding. In other words, each month I would deduct a payment and calculate investment interest gained. I also included all known fees and the RV, which was provided. Initially I did this to back into the MF and effective interest rate as if this was a loan. But then I added more complexity to compare buying options. This was at the beginning of 2024 when Rivian was giving crazy lease deals so my effective interest rate turned out to be almost zero. In addition I have a financial advisor that used planning software to predict my moderately aggressive portfolio would return 6.9% annually, on average. With these numbers I found that leasing the whole 36 months was a no-brainer. The lease saved me almost $10K if I bought out the truck at 36 months.. But I could see how a higher money factor and lower investment return could reverse this scenario. In this case the $7500 credit may become the driver for leasing and then buying out as soon as possible. BTW, this is my first lease EVER and I am in my 60’s.
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