R1S Delivery Update Email (June 30, 2022)

[R1Sky Business]

Spoke with CS today as I could not reach my Guide. Here is what I was told:
1) if you received an email update with a window further out in 2022 or 23, then that is the only update available at this time.
2) Rivian only began building R1S's for early deposit holders (2018/19) in May. Production delays caused delivery delays.
3) No further delivery window updates are likely until later this year (my window is Oct-Dec 2022).
4) Delivery windows of 3 months are atypical and likely going forward windows will be in 6 month increments.

Nothing but good news around here

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[R1Sky Business]

I'm confused as to what the plan is with the Explore trim. It doesn't appear as if they'll even get to Explore R1Ts this year, the 15k or whatever the estimated production appears to mostly be Launch/Adventure R1Ts with a handful of R1Ss thrown in based on this delay email. They can't just send out an email to say sorry we're not producing Explore trims anymore... can they?

2024ish

 

[R1Sky Business]

At current burn rate, Rivian will need to raise real money long before the GA plant produces a vehicle. They need to find a way to churn out more, wait on GA or issue lots more shares. It’s not going to be pretty.

Anyone ready for IPO version 2.0.....

 

[R1Sky Business]

I am in So Cal and was pushed as well, so don't blame Canada solely for your delay!

How close to a service center?

 

[DJG]

As much as I want Rivian to succeed (I want my R1S, and I own a few shares), I'm becoming increasingly skeptical of it happening. It's an amazing car, but for them to succeed, they probably need to be making 500-600k vehicles a year to hit cash-flow break even.

They have enough cash to last until about 2025.

So I need to believe that in the next 2.5 years, they can:
1. Maximize production of their current factory at about 150K annual vehicles
2. Build all of the versions of the R1's they've promised (dual motor, max pack, small pack, etc) without it slowing production.
3. Design, test, and launch a new R2 vehicle (or two).
4. Build a new factory at roughly the price they expected to pay for it 12-24 months ago. Ramp this factory to a run-rate of roughly 400,000 vehicles a year.
5. Sustain demand for high-priced EV's in a recessionary environment with higher interest rates than we've seen in a generation.

Given their inability to hit ANY deadlines or milestones to-date, I'm not feeling optimistic about their ability to do all of the above within a few years.

Well, they've unequivocally hit multiple deadlines to-date, but it's easy to just focus on the negative in times of emotional distress and/or just having a generally negative outlook on life.

Couple counter points: interest rates are no higher than we've seen just in the last several years, much less a generation. Secondly, they have little to no affect on demand of luxury goods like a premium EV. Many people are paying cash, and if they aren't higher rates only adding $50/month to a $1,000+ car payment are a rounding error for someone with a $20,000/mo expense budget. As for a few years from now when the more mass market models are released, interest rates are just as likely to be back to all time lows as they are to double again. Nobody knows. Lastly, if we want to get technical, rates are high now because of fears of inflation. An effect of that is people tend to spend money now for fear of it costing more later (which in turn causes more inflation). Also, borrowing is very attractive in an inflationary environment, where you expect to repay a fixed amount with more dollars. This is also why lenders require higher rates of return.

I don't think they have any intention of being cash flow positive for probably 10-15 years, because there is still way to much growth/expansion even after GA (Europe, China, etc.). However, operating profit is something they strive for in the next several years. That's likely to happen once GA is ramped up.

The beauty of a capitalist system is that you can ask people for money to fund stuff that you don't have the ability to fund yourself. So, it's not as much about being profitable or having cash flow, it's about the trend and the story and opportunity. Have those, which they would if they are showing increasing demand and more capacity with GA (with profitability on the horizon), and people will beg you to take their money.

And if all else fails, we the taxpayers will bail them out just like we have before. At least this time we'd be bailing out an innovative company looking to make the world a better place. Seems like a good public investment.

 

[noev4me]

How close to a service center?

7 miles

 

[DJG]

At current burn rate, Rivian will need to raise real money long before the GA plant produces a vehicle. They need to find a way to churn out more, wait on GA or issue lots more shares. It’s not going to be pretty.

What data leads to you believe that? They are producing vehicles at the rate they said they would (25k this year), at an increasing rate, with no slowing of demand.

Pushing out R1S doesn't decrease production revenue in the aggregate, if anything it probably increases it.

 

[R1Sky Business]

7 miles

So much for that theory

 

[Tim-in-CA]

I guess my September 21 R1S Adventure isn’t coming till 2024. I guess staying on the forum will be torture till then.

 

[Max]

I'm confused as to what the plan is with the Explore trim. It doesn't appear as if they'll even get to Explore R1Ts this year, the 15k or whatever the estimated production appears to mostly be Launch/Adventure R1Ts with a handful of R1Ss thrown in based on this delay email. They can't just send out an email to say sorry we're not producing Explore trims anymore... can they?

Your guess is as good as mine but if we go by their track record, They are trying to streamline so they can keep their numbers as high as possible for quarterly reports. They have already eliminated 5 seater R1S after folks like me put it in their config. Producing R1S along side R1T adds complexity to the mix. By the time R1S ramps up and explore is ready for prime time, they should have dual motor ready to add to the mix. something gotta give. So far they have shown consistently, they bite more than they can chew. I am not judging. I know I couldn't dream of doing half of what R. J. has accomplished so far but manufacturing seem to be an entirely different ball game than design and even big boys with years of experience have problems with it these days. All that to say, keep your expectations low. Anything can happen.

The question is while you are salivating over that out of reach R1 Explore supermodel with potentially large baggage, if other more practical options you can make a life with on the road show up, would you still wait? I for one, would rather wait until 23. Based on everthing I read, if I get an R1T now, there is a fair chance, I would have more problems with it than I do with used cars I own. But if I am pushed into 24, other options may become more real for me.

 

[Sher]

Spoke with CS today as I could not reach my Guide. Here is what I was told:
1) if you received an email update with a window further out in 2022 or 23, then that is the only update available at this time.
2) Rivian only began building R1S's for early deposit holders (2018/19) in May. Production delays caused delivery delays.
3) No further delivery window updates are likely until later this year (my window is Oct-Dec 2022).
4) Delivery windows of 3 months are atypical and likely going forward windows will be in 6 month increments.

Just clarifying … you did / did not receive an email today and did / did not also receive an update on June 11th? I received the email on June 11th, but not an email today, so I wonder if I am still slotted for 2022.

 

[Jac]

I guess my September 21 R1S Adventure isn’t coming till 2024. I guess staying on the forum will be torture till then.

I‘m an October 21 R1S reservation. We may yet see our Rivians next year. What we don’t know is how many of the reservation holders currently ahead of us will wait for their Rivian and actually buy when their number comes up. Also, I imagine The Store may feature available R1S’s for faster delivery in 2023 like it does now for faster delivery of available R1T’s today.

 

[Tsunami]

No email today and based on my call with the CS there is no email update coming. The June 11 email was the update. If you have a new window later this year or next, then consider yourself notified.
Reply

 

[MilliM]

So much for that theory

FWIW I'm an April '19 reservation for what became the R1S Failure to Launch Edition. Live about 5 miles from Irvine HQ & 10 miles from the Costa Mesa Service Center. I'm also 1H 2023. Originally started as a GW/OC, but switched to FG (due to an ask from my kids) and then BM (trying to get it sooner).

Based on the new window of 1H 2023 I've switched back to GW/OC since I'm waiting anyways, and I think white exterior w/ OC may help w/resale here in OC. I say that because I'm losing confidence I'll hold it for the long term.

I hope I'm wrong on that point, and up until March of this year the R1S was all I was truly looking forward to on the automotive front. At this rate, however, I'll have had my Lightning for a period of time (it should come late July or August), my early reservation Cybertruck (sub 3k RN) might be getting closer, and the Polestar 5 that I'm intending to swap for our P*2 could be around the corner. With all that happening the R1S might feel like old news to me...

 

[R1Sky Business]

FWIW I'm an April '19 reservation for what became the R1S Failure to Launch Edition. Live about 5 miles from Irvine HQ & 10 miles from the Costa Mesa Service Center. I'm also 1H 2023. Originally started as a GW/OC, but switched to FG (due to an ask from my kids) and then BM (trying to get it sooner).

Based on the new window of 1H 2023 I've switched back to GW/OC since I'm waiting anyways, and I think white exterior w/ OC may help w/resale here in OC. I say that because I'm losing confidence I'll hold it for the long term.

I hope I'm wrong on that point, and up until March of this year the R1S was all I was truly looking forward to on the automotive front. At this rate, however, I'll have had my Lightning for a period of time (it should come late July or August), my early reservation Cybertruck (sub 3k RN) might be getting closer, and the Polestar 5 that I'm intending to swap for our P*2 could be around the corner. With all that happening the R1S might feel like old news to me...

That's a lot of moving parts....

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