Sponsored

Yossarian

Well-Known Member
Joined
Oct 20, 2020
Threads
31
Messages
788
Reaction score
758
Location
SE Pennsylvania
Vehicles
R1T,Telluride, Wee-Strom, Lynskey Cooper
May be an unpopular opinion but I don’t think it gets talked about enough … I wish they would stop opening Spaces and focus on opening more service centers.

I live in NJ and we have no SC, even though I see tons of R1s in the road. NJ is huge on EV adoption, yet we don’t have a SC which can easily act as a showroom.

As a shareholder and a LE R1S owner, I can’t imagine how much is being spent on rent and salaries for all the fancy Spaces in Brooklyn and Manhattan, where EVs don’t even make as much sense since almost no one has access to convinient home charging.
Agree that there should be more emphasis on service centers however, the Rivian Spaces are really the only marketing that the company does.

Regarding service centers, the Garden State already has one in operation, in Roebling, near Trenton. I'm not sure why the Rivian website hasn't been updated to show that it's operational. There are several more SC's planned for NJ, Edison, Carlstadt & Woodbridge, and there's one up and running just across the state line Blauvelt, NY as well. To the point about SC's acting as proxy Rivian Spaces, I suspect that most are too overwhelmed by the volume vehicles needing work to be showrooms.

I live in PA, where until recently, owing to the Commonwealth's dealer-only laws, there were no SC's even in the planning stages. Rivian seems to have gotten an exemption (as Tesla also did), and there is now a SC planned for Malvern, only a few miles from where I live. We have quite a few Rivian's in my area, so that SC will be very welcome.
Sponsored

 

Zoidz

Well-Known Member
First Name
Gil
Joined
Feb 28, 2021
Threads
159
Messages
4,249
Reaction score
9,391
Location
PA
Vehicles
23 R1S Adv, Avalanche, BMWs-X3,330cic,K1200RS bike
Occupation
Engineer
To Tesla's credit those are monster numbers even so and a better problem to have than the challenges Rivian is up against.

Rivian has serious issues wondering if there will be food on the table vs Tesla dealing with first world problems respectively.
I don't disagree, but they still did not "rock it" by any stretch of the imagination. They didn't meet anyone's expectations. That's not rocking it.
 

NY_Rob

Well-Known Member
First Name
Rob
Joined
Feb 9, 2022
Threads
23
Messages
4,778
Reaction score
6,887
Location
long island
Vehicles
Model 3 LR AWD, BMW i3 REX, 2024 Rubicon 4xe
Occupation
IT
There are valid reasons to compare Rivian to Tesla...

-Tesla Model S was their only model for years. The original 2007 price range for the Model S was $50K–$70K, which is equivalent to $73K–$102K in 2023 dollars. Then the uber expensive Model X came out at $74K to $135K .. two very expensive offerings.
-Rivian has two $90-$110K offerings, nothing in the $40-50K range.

-Elon said the Model 3 at $50K would determine if Tesla lives or dies as a company.
-Rivian is betting their future on the $50K R2 (and R3 to a lesser extent).

Pretty similar evolutionary paths between the two companies...
Rivian also has a much more stable CEO at this point in time, but RJ has displayed a 'head in the sand' attitude occasionally which is somewhat concerning.
 
Last edited:

SANZC02

Well-Known Member
First Name
Bob
Joined
Feb 11, 2021
Threads
40
Messages
6,453
Reaction score
10,998
Location
California
Vehicles
Tesla Model S, LE - R1S
Occupation
Retired
It's a YMMV type of thing for sure. I'm a first gen Tesla owner myself, with many since then and have experienced the evolutionary process of Tesla. Not all service centers are created equal, but I've had great experiences with my locations and have always got a loaner. (A Tesla not an ICE loaner.)

FSD and Autopilot, let alone the whole software is miles ahead vs Rivian. Tesla is much more polished and refined. Rivian is 2nd, but not a close 2nd by any means. They have a ways to go.

Rivian has a lot going for it and has a lot of strengths for being so young, which makes the flagship R1x line so great in their own way.
Interesting, MMV for sure.

I have a 2016 Model S, I find autopilot (AP1) a little better than Driver+ in behavior but not much. Biggest difference is in design decision where AP1 can be used on any road with lines painted and Driver+ is only mapped roads. I am not including that in the comparison even though I prefer the Tesla decision.

The rest of the software in my vehicles are pretty close, I can’t think of anything in the Tesla that is much different between my vehicles. Only thing I use that is missing in my R1S is reading and sending texts. My Tesla did not have that in the first few years, came as an OTA I think in year 3. For now I just use SIRI for that feature.
 

PaythePiper

Well-Known Member
Joined
Sep 2, 2024
Threads
0
Messages
227
Reaction score
252
Location
Phx AZ
Vehicles
Model Y, R1S on order
I guess we have different definitions of "rocked"

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/02/tesla-tsla-q3-2024-vehicle-delivery-and-production-numbers.html

Tesla posted its third-quarter vehicle production and deliveries report on Wednesday. The stock fell as much as 3.7% after the report.

Here are the key numbers:

Total deliveries Q3 2024: 462,890

Total production Q3 2024: 469,796

Analysts were expecting deliveries of 463,310 in the period ended Sept. 30, according to estimates compiled by FactSet StreetAccount.

Based on some other estimates, Tesla missed by even more. According to LSEG, analysts on average were expecting deliveries of 469,828 vehicles. An independent researcher widely followed by Tesla fans who publishes as “Troy Teslike” predicted the EV maker would report deliveries of 472,000 in the quarter.
Their stock was up 9 bucks the last I checked , so who knows.
 

Sponsored

Grogu

Member
First Name
Jeffery
Joined
Sep 12, 2023
Threads
0
Messages
18
Reaction score
18
Location
Fresno California
Vehicles
R1T
Occupation
Retired
Profitability: if they aren’t selling as many, making a profit gets much harder. They will not be profitable anytime soon.

R2: where are all of the test vehicle sightings? We are approaching one year out from Rivians R2 start of production guidance. Testing should be underway and thus mule vehicles running around in the wild. There have been no sightings that I’m aware of. The R2 is going to be late.
I was up at IKEA about two months ago and I got to see two R2‘s first hand, and they’re beautiful. I talked to the testers, and they are testing them in Palo Alto., CA
 

Guuma

Member
Joined
Jan 30, 2024
Threads
0
Messages
20
Reaction score
27
Location
USA
Vehicles
ID4, Lynksys Gravel Bike
Reinforcing the demand issue I just got a call from Laguna Beach from Rivian asking if I was aware of the $3500 off for existing owners to upgrade to a 2025 model. Never had any sales calls from them before - they are trying to drum up sales any way they can.
I get calls from Toyota and Volkswagen about new car offers all the time as an existing customer. Not sure that's a sign of demand issues. If they can get you to buy a car every 2 years that's a win.
 

Grogu

Member
First Name
Jeffery
Joined
Sep 12, 2023
Threads
0
Messages
18
Reaction score
18
Location
Fresno California
Vehicles
R1T
Occupation
Retired
Pics?
[/QUOTE
I didn’t have my phone And was unable to take pictures, but I can say they’re beautiful. They are smaller just the right size for people who don’t want the full size they were white and they were just beautiful. The guy was telling me what they were in Palo Alto and are testing the software and making sure that everything was good to go
 

mkhuffman

Well-Known Member
First Name
Mike
Joined
Nov 9, 2020
Threads
0
Messages
905
Reaction score
1,074
Location
Virginia
Vehicles
Ford Mach-E GT, Jeep GC-L, VW Jetta, Kia POS
Woah...

I get it's not great news, but this is an over reaction.

They have the cash needed to make it to R2 launch in 2026.

And if they can't make a go of it with R2 they have additional options to raise more cash.

And if things still aren't going well they've built enough of a customer base they will attract buyers.

The brand isn't going anywhere anytime soon, certainly not in 6 months.
I love your optimism, but unless you have data to back up those assertions, they are meaningless. Do you have something more than just your opinion?

I feel like one critical milestone is getting the R1 cash flow positive. I agree with others who pointed out the company needs a higher volume product to survive, like the R2. But that is the long term requirement.

If they can't get the R1 cash flow positive, I don't see a viable path forward. They need to be able to add to the balance sheet by producing more R1s, instead of decreasing their cash with every one sold.

I really hope they provide data from Q3 that shows they are on track to do what they said they were going to do. I agree Q4 results are critical because they better damn well be producing cash with the R1 by then. If they are not, it's over IMO. They will never have enough cash to start R2 production if every R1 is draining it.

I really, really want a R1T Tri Max. It is such an awesome truck. They better not screw this up. I have to say my confidence level is not high based on some of their financial decisions.
 

Sponsored

DuoRivian

Well-Known Member
Joined
Sep 3, 2023
Threads
2
Messages
733
Reaction score
875
Location
California
Vehicles
Rivian R1T and an R1S
Occupation
IT
Clubs
 
I get calls from Toyota and Volkswagen about new car offers all the time as an existing customer. Not sure that's a sign of demand issues. If they can get you to buy a car every 2 years that's a win.
I never have from Toyota or Mazda so each to their own.
 

Electron

Banned
Well-Known Member
Joined
Apr 30, 2024
Threads
8
Messages
418
Reaction score
407
Location
PNW
Vehicles
EVs since 2014 | R1S | R2 RSVP
Occupation
Engineer || Investor
Clubs
 
I love your optimism, but unless you have data to back up those assertions, they are meaningless. Do you have something more than just your opinion?

I feel like one critical milestone is getting the R1 cash flow positive. I agree with others who pointed out the company needs a higher volume product to survive, like the R2. But that is the long term requirement.

If they can't get the R1 cash flow positive, I don't see a viable path forward. They need to be able to add to the balance sheet by producing more R1s, instead of decreasing their cash with every one sold.

I really hope they provide data from Q3 that shows they are on track to do what they said they were going to do. I agree Q4 results are critical because they better damn well be producing cash with the R1 by then. If they are not, it's over IMO. They will never have enough cash to start R2 production if every R1 is draining it.

I really, really want a R1T Tri Max. It is such an awesome truck. They better not screw this up. I have to say my confidence level is not high based on some of their financial decisions.
You're right. If conditions aren't meant it's over. We're all banking on the fact that the Gen2 is allowing the company to be in the net positive for profits. The question remains though.

Rivian R1T R1S Q3 2024 Production / Delivery Numbers… Not good Rivian 2
 

Electron

Banned
Well-Known Member
Joined
Apr 30, 2024
Threads
8
Messages
418
Reaction score
407
Location
PNW
Vehicles
EVs since 2014 | R1S | R2 RSVP
Occupation
Engineer || Investor
Clubs
 
I don't disagree, but they still did not "rock it" by any stretch of the imagination. They didn't meet anyone's expectations. That's not rocking it.
When compared to Rivian, they rocked it. Rocked it so hard that it makes Rivian look like a nat on the wall that just hatched from a banana.

When isolated to just Tesla and within their own projections, they didn't rock it, but when the Juniper launches I think they'll rock it for sure.

The volume that Tesla is able to move as solely an EV car company is insane regardless. So they're rocking it in more ways than not.

But I get your point.
 

mkhuffman

Well-Known Member
First Name
Mike
Joined
Nov 9, 2020
Threads
0
Messages
905
Reaction score
1,074
Location
Virginia
Vehicles
Ford Mach-E GT, Jeep GC-L, VW Jetta, Kia POS
I agree. They are too big to fail. Shareholders would certainly take a hit in a restructuring but they are here to stay.
Rivian is definitely not too big to fail.

Failure has many possible paths, but if they go bankrupt, the bankruptcy court won't allow it to continue to exist if it cannot make money producing the R1. Everyone Rivian owes money to will have to be paid first. If the restructured company is cash flow negative, there is no path forward for the company to continue to exist after bankruptcy. It will be an asset sale to pay off debt.

On the other hand, if the R1 production line is cash flow positive the court may allow the company to continue. But only if it is making enough to surivie on its own.

A cash flow positive production line is also attractive for an established auto company like Ford or VW. A cash flow negative production line is pretty much a dead end. Who wants that? In that case Rivian dies a permanent death, just like Scout did many years ago.
 

majorfriend

Well-Known Member
First Name
Seth
Joined
Nov 18, 2021
Threads
3
Messages
148
Reaction score
232
Location
Colorado
Vehicles
Land Cruiser 100, LE R1T, EV9
Occupation
IT Consultant
I love your optimism, but unless you have data to back up those assertions, they are meaningless. Do you have something more than just your opinion?

I feel like one critical milestone is getting the R1 cash flow positive. I agree with others who pointed out the company needs a higher volume product to survive, like the R2. But that is the long term requirement.

If they can't get the R1 cash flow positive, I don't see a viable path forward. They need to be able to add to the balance sheet by producing more R1s, instead of decreasing their cash with every one sold.

I really hope they provide data from Q3 that shows they are on track to do what they said they were going to do. I agree Q4 results are critical because they better damn well be producing cash with the R1 by then. If they are not, it's over IMO. They will never have enough cash to start R2 production if every R1 is draining it.

I really, really want a R1T Tri Max. It is such an awesome truck. They better not screw this up. I have to say my confidence level is not high based on some of their financial decisions.
They have $7.86 billion cash on hand, which at their current burn rate (which should improve as factory retooling is complete and G2 should provide better margins) would last a little over 1.5 years, or right to the R2 launch.

They have additional shares they can sell (not a good idea, would be something in desperation, but it is doable).

They have significant investments from Amazon and VW, two large companies which now have an interest in keeping Rivian going.

They've delivered over 100k vehicles, have 42 service centers and a charging network with 67 locations. Those aren't big numbers by any means, but they are respectable (for comparison Lucid has delivered around 15k vehicles).
Sponsored

 
 





Top