Q3 2024 earnings released. Sales & positive gross profit reiterated for Q4 2024

[Mellowyellow]

Really? and you're promoting "fortune favors the brave"? You'd rather Rivian be not brave? You'd rather not adopt a brave outlook on them? What are you doing here anyway?

Were we not summarizing the letter? That’s a metric that we’ve been tracking and it’s been steadily improving. Last few though its been stagnant.

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[bdwalters]

I do wonder how Rivian gets gross margin positive in Q4, being that far off. I wonder if they are counting on selling a load of quads and tris. If so, I think they are in trouble.

 

[dleepnw]

The Rivian you bought allowed some other manufacturer to delay electrification and sell another gas guzzler. Good job, everyone! I for one am proud.

please stop with the "holier than though". you can point fingers in both directions. as long as were moving up and to the right, we'll be better off in the long run.

 

[strykerwsu]

please stop with the "holier than though". you can point fingers in both directions. as long as were moving up and to the right, we'll be better off in the long run.

Amen. This comes up all the time about “Sustainability”. Doing something rather than nothing and getting 10% better etc is worth it. For those that spout the Debbie Downer approach we are waiting for the “correct answer” that will fix all ills with no unintended consequences.

 

[Ohm Boy]

"We anticipate the material cost of an R2 AWD Large vehicle to be 45% lower than a second generation R1 Dual Large vehicle."

Should help the doubters here about Rivian's potential profitability once R2 starts shipping.

who am I kidding, those people are helpless.

Agreed. And yet there will always be some unsung asshole doing a laughing emoji in response to what you posted. But I would defend their right to post as such per their 1st Amendment rights.

Sorry, Admins - Is talking about Constitutional rights “political”?

 

[kenyee]

"selling tri-motors to mitigate supply issues for motors as these vehicles only require 1 large motor per build."

Just realized this means they're using Bosch motors for the Tri?
That'll reduce their profit on it too...

 

[DuoRivian]

"selling tri-motors to mitigate supply issues for motors as these vehicles only require 1 large motor per build."

Just realized this means they're using Bosch motors for the Tri?
That'll reduce their profit on it too...

No it means they use their ascent motor for the rear and enduro at the front. They have two motor designs. Endorsed in dual drive and EDV.

 

[Newtonrj]

No it means they use their ascent motor for the rear and enduro at the front. They have two motor designs. Endorsed in dual drive and EDV.

I saw that too. What I read into it a bit further is the Ascent motor is not supply chain constrained. Just the Enduro motors. And with both DM/TM and EDV wanting Enduros that ARE supply constrained, they are making at least some portion of these constrained vehicles (~3k of them) waiting for supply chain to catch up. They did this about 14 months ago and it worked then so reusing a strategy abet for the Gen2s that worked for the Gen1s.

 

[BigSkies]

I do wonder how Rivian gets gross margin positive in Q4, being that far off. I wonder if they are counting on selling a load of quads and tris. If so, I think they are in trouble.

I expect it has to do more with the nuances of cost accounting than sales mix.

A requirement of cost accounting is that a vehicle is expensed when it’s sold, not when it’s produced.

Since Rivian carries a few months of inventory, most of the expense part of Q4 cost of sales will be based on the vehicles manufactured in Q3.

This means Q1 2025 will be not great on margins with the Q4 production cuts.

Rivian’s narrative on positive gross margins has always been about cost reduction on the bill of materials and factory utilization. While ASP is important, it doesn’t seem to be the driving factor here.

 

[Mark_AZR1T]

I am excited for Rivian. If they get to scale quickly on R2, they will knock it out of the park. Even if the tax credit is eliminated.

What does scale really mean? Just take a look: CR-V sales hit 350,000 units a year, and the 4Runner holds steady around 110,000. For Rivian to approach that level, they need at least 100,000 units annually. Without the Georgia plant, they simply won’t get there—expanding Normal alone won’t bridge that gap.

And here’s the kicker: Georgia won’t be online before 2028. By 2027, Rivian’s looking at another delivery bottleneck. By then, the market will be fiercer than ever, with BYD likely making its North American debut. Rivian’s leadership surely sees this hurdle looming.

By early 2027, Rivian will need a white knight—whether it’s a powerful long-term investment or a full acquisition—to propel them forward and keep them in the race.

 

[Sundin67]

I find it hard to predict cost to build or sale price of a product 2 years from now. My personal thought is they need to get more products in peoples hands which is a combination of incentives and many more service centers. Having to drive an hour or more for service is a deal killer, especially when companies like BMW, MB, Lexus offer pickup and drop off service to customers.

 

[mkg3]

What does scale really mean? Just take a look: CR-V sales hit 350,000 units a year, and the 4Runner holds steady around 110,000. For Rivian to approach that level, they need at least 100,000 units annually. Without the Georgia plant, they simply won’t get there—expanding Normal alone won’t bridge that gap.

And here’s the kicker: Georgia won’t be online before 2028. By 2027, Rivian’s looking at another delivery bottleneck. By then, the market will be fiercer than ever, with BYD likely making its North American debut. Rivian’s leadership surely sees this hurdle looming.

By early 2027, Rivian will need a white knight—whether it’s a powerful long-term investment or a full acquisition—to propel them forward and keep them in the race.

This is a good take.

Rivian needs a "China Moment", like Apple and Tesla have had. Wether its China or India, they need much, much larger addressable market.

 

[FinancialCents]

What does scale really mean? Just take a look: CR-V sales hit 350,000 units a year, and the 4Runner holds steady around 110,000. For Rivian to approach that level, they need at least 100,000 units annually. Without the Georgia plant, they simply won’t get there—expanding Normal alone won’t bridge that gap.

And here’s the kicker: Georgia won’t be online before 2028. By 2027, Rivian’s looking at another delivery bottleneck. By then, the market will be fiercer than ever, with BYD likely making its North American debut. Rivian’s leadership surely sees this hurdle looming.

By early 2027, Rivian will need a white knight—whether it’s a powerful long-term investment or a full acquisition—to propel them forward and keep them in the race.

All fair points. BYD may be at a disadvantage with the potential tariffs by the incoming administration.

Hopefully the R2 will be easier to assemble with less bells and whistles so ramp up will be more achievable versus R1s

 

[evguy]

What does scale really mean? Just take a look: CR-V sales hit 350,000 units a year, and the 4Runner holds steady around 110,000. For Rivian to approach that level, they need at least 100,000 units annually. Without the Georgia plant, they simply won’t get there—expanding Normal alone won’t bridge that gap.

And here’s the kicker: Georgia won’t be online before 2028. By 2027, Rivian’s looking at another delivery bottleneck. By then, the market will be fiercer than ever, with BYD likely making its North American debut. Rivian’s leadership surely sees this hurdle looming.

By early 2027, Rivian will need a white knight—whether it’s a powerful long-term investment or a full acquisition—to propel them forward and keep them in the race.

I'm not sure how much scale is needed to reach full profitability and positive cash flow, but in this year's Q1 release Rivian announced that the Normal expansion will bring them to total production capacity of 215,000 units across all models (including a max of 155,000 for R2).

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