Q1 2025 Earnings Report & Shareholder Letter Released

[Mark_AZR1T]

My overall takeaway is optimistic, though the very low 30K range of R1 sales stands out as a concern. This seems to be less about tariffs and more about market demand—understandably so, given the $80–$115K price point.

That said, I was encouraged to hear the reiteration that R2 production is on track to begin in early 2026, with a starting price of $45K. Taken together, it could sound like a $45K model might launch on day one. If that turns out to be true, it's a potential home run. Does anyone buy-in to a $45K R2 from the get-go?

Sponsored

 

[Mark_AZR1T]

Lots of "experts" in here should try to run their own car company one of these days.

Agreed. Selling jack pucks and wheels is difficult enough

 

[SANZC02]

My overall takeaway is optimistic, though the very low 30K range of R1 sales stands out as a concern. This seems to be less about tariffs and more about market demand—understandably so, given the $80–$115K price point.

That said, I was encouraged to hear the reiteration that R2 production is on track to begin in early 2026, with a starting price of $45K. Taken together, it could sound like a $45K model might launch on day one. If that turns out to be true, it's a potential home run. Does anyone buy-in to a $45K R2 from the get-go?

I’d be surprised to see a 45k model to start, my guess is that won’t be until 2027 at earliest. It has been awhile since launch event but I seem to remember the 45k version is expected to be rear wheel drive only.

My guess is dual motor 55-65k out of the gate.

I read somewhere (can’t find it now) that analysts estimate is under 50k units expected in first year, I think they easily move those coming in under 70k out the door.

 

[carsly]

I'm guessing 2025 volume finished up at 32-36K units with increased softness in the back half of the year.

On the plus side, I see more Rivians now than ever before and they are a regular sight. On the negative side all those folks have Rivians and probably aren't buying another one until R2 enters its second or third year of production when the kinks get worked out.

The ZEV credits and how their accounting team chooses to recognize revenue from software development to support the VW partnership saved their bacon this quarter. That accounting gimmickry gets tougher when the unit volumes keep falling.

They really need to start the current R1 at $69K before tax credit and get some additional fixed cost absorption.

 

[DuoRivian]

for a company in a capital intensive industry that is still rapidly expanding, a net loss is practically a given. this is why the focus so far has been on getting to positive gross profit. still nice to see the net loss is down almost a billion over the same period last year.

They are not rapidly expanding since 2023,2024 and 2025 are all comparable. They will grow next year.

 

[Hereforthesnacks]

Lots of "experts" in here should try to run their own car company one of these days.

Right, you have to run a car company to be able to invest or have an opinion on it. That would leave 10 people in the US who can have an opinion lol.

 

[Hereforthesnacks]

I’d be surprised to see a 45k model to start, my guess is that won’t be until 2027 at earliest. It has been awhile since launch event but I seem to remember the 45k version is expected to be rear wheel drive only.

My guess is dual motor 55-65k out of the gate.

I read somewhere (can’t find it now) that analysts estimate is under 50k units expected in first year, I think they easily move those coming in under 70k out the door.

Totally agree. A $45k R2 to start is almost definitely not going to happen. Not with prices on the rise, capex going up, and still no profit. They can’t take a hit on R2.

My guess is R2 is $52-55k.

 

[ndmiller]

Future guidance for a public company with any supply chain outside of the US is 100% guesswork. No-one knows, even the current administration what the % Tariff on any country will be past today. Additionally multiple sources in the administration have conflicting viewpoints, forecasts, coming soon, and flat out lies.

FWIW all I know is apparel, so cars or anything that is complicated with public guidance is not worth reading. When 60-90 days of consistent action and messaging occurs, you can start paying attention to the Billions/Trillions lost during Q2 earnings across the board with US companies. China is subsiding their companies and factories for years, while the US hasn't and won't.

No substantial amount goods have left China or some other countries since tariff day and no goods have left the us for the same countries. Stuff is piling up everywhere (Perishables are rotting) waiting for discussions to happen (which was confirmed today to congress that no discussions between china/us have happened contrary to recent lies).

 

[DuoRivian]

Totally agree. A $45k R2 to start is almost definitely not going to happen. Not with prices on the rise, capex going up, and still no profit. They can’t take a hit on R2.

My guess is R2 is $52-55k.

If that happens then competition like the upcoming Subaru Trailseeker which starts at $45k with a dual motor will hit them. Rivian need to be $45k and the tax credit was an extra benefit

 

[mkg3]

...They really need to start the current R1 at $69K before tax credit and get some additional fixed cost absorption.

In my way of thinking, Rivian needed to do this before the new quad or the trip-motor.

Why not R1T Pro model focused on business needs. I'm seeing many Silverado EV pro equivalent CalTrans trucks these days.

If these trucks were sold commercially as a fleet at $50k~$60Kish, they would have made up the volume they are losing due to lack of demand.

 

[electruck]

They are not rapidly expanding since 2023,2024 and 2025 are all comparable. They will grow next year.

Perhaps you missed my point and are referring to vehicle deliveries only (aka revenue growth)? In terms of their expenditures, Rivian added 1.1 million sq feet to the factory last year along with other preparations required to start R2 deliveries next year, are likely still spending on R2 and R3 engineering, have been opening new service centers, and just announced undertaking a 1.2 million sq ft supplier park. So, yeah, they're still rapidly expanding their manufacturing and service capacity - which means they're spending money (aka reinvesting profits... and then some).

 

[electruck]

Agreed but just imagine what the financial would have looked without the VWG's $1b investment last year. 2024Q1 did not have VWG investment. 2025Q1 does.

Sure, but as they say In the sports world... a win is a win.

 

[carsly]

In my way of thinking, Rivian needed to do this before the new quad or the trip-motor.

Why not R1T Pro model focused on business needs. I'm seeing many Silverado EV pro equivalent CalTrans trucks these days.

If these trucks were sold commercially as a fleet at $50k~$60Kish, they would have made up the volume they are losing due to lack of demand.

You've nailed it. Put back in the old Large pack of 131 kwh - the new "Large" pack at 109 kwh is a Medium at best - and add an inverter to output 32 amps at 240 volts from a rear power outlet like the F-150 and Cybertruck. Then strip down some of the nonsensical whimsical things like wood veneer trims, colored ambient lights (which are too dim to be useful anyway), extra trim on the headrests, heated rear and third row seats, etc.

No doubt there is a demand for a work R1S or R1T, but the fitment and pricing don't make any sense for most fleet/work use cases.

The tri and quad are fools errands designed to keep people's attention.

You know what else keeps people's attention? A functional suspension on the dual motor that's not skittish on highways jumping all over the place, better steering tuning and better efficiency. The Gen 2 "improvements", and I say this as a Gen 2 owner, are complete hogwash. The only real improvement is camera resolution.

 

[UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan]

Agreed. Selling jack pucks and wheels is difficult enough

You get it. But, has anyone complained that your jack pucks should come with text messaging and CarPlay??

 

[Hereforthesnacks]

If that happens then competition like the upcoming Subaru Trailseeker which starts at $45k with a dual motor will hit them. Rivian need to be $45k and the tax credit was an extra benefit

I’m always happy to be wrong! Let’s see how it plays out.

Sponsored