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Nikola's Explosive Arrival on Wall Street & New Badger Pickup - Crowding Out at the Feed Trough?

Coast2Coast

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Long haul semi new arrival, Nikola, has seen explosive gains in share price since listing on the NYSE last week. Share prices have doubled.

Nikola is proposing a fully integrated model, long haul, fuel cell powered, 700 fuel station network offering fuel generation, storage and delivery to vehicle warranty, service and insurance. Quite a remarkable vision. Nikola claims to have $10 billion in orders lined up, and its first truck hasn't yet hit the road.

Yesterday, Nikola announced a new pickup rival, the Badger, to Rivian, Tesla, GM, Ford, Lordstown and Bollinger's electricity powered pickups. In the light duty segment, Nikola's trucks will be both battery and fuel cell powered, unlike the big semis which will be fully fuel cell powered. The order book on the Badger will open on June 22. Nikola promises specs that rival Rivian and Tesla, not to mention GM, Ford, Lordstown and Bollinger, and from what I've been able to learn, the Badger will be Cybertruck size and, thus, considerably larger than a R1T. Here's more information on the Badger, including dimensions; note the Badger's length should be 19', not 9'.
https://news.yahoo.com/electric-pickup-truck-longer-range-164411191.html

If I haven't left any new electricity powered truck out of the count, that's 7 new light duty, electricity powered trucks (Bollinger is actually a medium duty truck) in the next year. Can they all survive? Which will be crowded out first? 2-3 factors will count for a lot:

1) which get to market first and, ideally, gain early market acceptance; first-to-market is a feather in your cap if you can deliver on quality and performance,

2) how deep are the pockets behind the trucks; BEV truck makers will not be profitable early on; Tesla hasn't yet delivered a full year of profitability in a dozen years,

3) as forum members often wonder and worry, what will be the service and warranty model? Large established firms, like GM, Ford and Tesla, have infrastructure and support pieces in place.

Lots of competitors put a squeeze on pricing, and margins won't be as fat as they were expected to be just six months ago. This is good for us in terms of pricing, but small start-ups like Rivian don't enjoy the cross-subsidization wherewithal of large firms, like GM and Ford, and stock market largess of Tesla. Some makers won't survive and others will pull out quickly, but if this is a true inflection point in the market, we hope Rivian will make the cut. Amazon's backing and 100,000 van order are huge wins for Rivian. Now it's time to get the production lines rolling.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/09/mee...t-traders-believe-is-as-valuable-as-ford.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/electric-truck-maker-nikola-looks-110004402.html
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