Next R1S delivery timeline update email coming July 1 - says customer service

[Gator42]

That makes no sense.

I don’t agree with the sentiment but one way it makes sense is if Aug-Sept deliveries aren’t delivered until, say…Christmas…

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[svet-am]

I don’t agree with the sentiment but one way it makes sense is if Aug-Sept deliveries aren’t delivered until, say…Christmas…

I don’t know if you are new here but Rivian always seems to have a supply of optimism that far exceeds their production capacity. If we do the math, employee deliveries are just starting now and based on R1T will run for about a month. So, AUG-SEP is the first window with actual customer deliveries. It is my estimate that they don’t have enough production capacity (supplies, etc) to do more actual production capacity for customers than that first window. Eg, just enough to say they started customer deliveries in 2022 but the remainder will be deferred. Maybe a few VIPs here and there to be able to claim that production never “stopped” but I really think we will see one big flurry of activity and then nothing on R1S. It is clearly all priority on R1T.

 

[Yossarian]

My crystal ball prediction is that AUG/SEP delivery windows are going to be the only R1S deliveries that happen this year. All of the others will be pushed to 2023.

[Edited for typos]
I would expect 2022 R1S deliveries to be small in number and clustered toward the end of the year for a few reasons.

Rivian production for the remainder of 2022 seems very likely to be overwhelmingly R1T LR/LE/Adventures. They are still in the early stages of ramping up to full-rate production, something very difficult in the best of times, and adding a different model like the R1S to the mix will negatively impact rate. That in turn could jeopardize Rivian's ability to meet the stated R1 production target for 2022 (15,000 units), so I strongly suspect that relatively few R1S's will be in the mix this year.

I think that a high priority at Rivian is to meet the stated 15,000 R1 unit target, but I also think there is a secondary goal to credibly claim that the R1S is in production. To make sure that R1T production is impacted as minimally as possible, it seems likely to me that even limited R1S production will be shifted to the right and be as few units as possible consistent with that "in production" claim. How many R1S's is anyone's guess but I suspect it's no greater than the low hundreds. Hopefully we get more info and insight at the August Earnings Call.

As to methodology, I use a Magic 8 Ball, which may or may not be more accurate than the crystal balls that others use. And though I'd be very happy if my speculation proves to be wrong, to paraphrase H L Mencken, "No one ever went broke underestimating Rivian predictions."

 

[R1Sky Business]

Don't believe a Customer Service Rep... they have not clue... just wing it to make sure you're happy.

It is the way

 

[R1Sky Business]

[Edited for typos]
I would expect 2022 R1S deliveries to be small in number and clustered toward the end of the year for a few reasons.

Rivian production for the remainder of 2022 seems very likely to be overwhelmingly R1T LR/LE/Adventures. They are still in the early stages of ramping up to full-rate production, something very difficult in the best of times, and adding a different model like the R1S to the mix will negatively impact rate. That in turn could jeopardize Rivian's ability to meet the stated R1 production target for 2022 (15,000 units), so I strongly suspect that relatively few R1S's will be in the mix this year.

I think that a high priority at Rivian is to meet the stated 15,000 R1 unit target, but I also think there is a secondary goal to credibly claim that the R1S is in production. To make sure that R1T production is impacted as minimally as possible, it seems likely to me that even limited R1S production will be shifted to the right and be as few units as possible consistent with that "in production" claim. How many R1S's is anyone's guess but I suspect it's no greater than the low hundreds. Hopefully we get more info and insight at the August Earnings Call.

As to methodology, I use a Magic 8 Ball, which may or may not be more accurate than the crystal balls that others use. And though I'd be very happy if my speculation proves to be wrong, to paraphrase H L Mencken, "No one ever went broke underestimating Rivian predictions."

Empirical evidence!!!!

 

[IlliniRivian]

This says new windows starting next week! So they miss the 2 week update window by over a week and screw folks again.

 

[Zoidz]

….
As to methodology, I use a Magic 8 Ball, which may or may not be more accurate than the crystal balls that others use. And though I'd be very happy if my speculation proves to be wrong, to paraphrase H L Mencken, "No one ever went broke underestimating Rivian predictions."

I’ve been using I Ching Hexagrams for my predictions. What’s odd is that hexagram 19 comes up frequently, which is the “Nearing” hexagram, as in “s00n”.

 

[runwithscissors]

Just got the email, Ordered Feb 9th, 2021.

Your Adventure package R1S estimated delivery window is the first half of 2023.

Your delivery window estimate is based on your preorder date, delivery location and current configuration. Here’s why your window has shifted:

1. Supply chain
   As we’ve continued to navigate a tight supply chain, we’ve had to reduce complexity wherever possible, including prioritizing certain build combinations over others.
2. Service Infrastructure
   We continue to prioritize deliveries in locations where service infrastructure is in place so that we can provide the full ownership experience to Rivian owners from day one.

We’re grateful for your continued support and will continue to keep you updated. Your preorder is a vote for finding better ways of doing things on a planet that needs all of us to innovate for the future. If you have any questions, please reach out to us.

Thank you again for being on this journey with us.

 

[pjrivian]

Same except ordered August of 2020. Had the July to September delivery window originally. It's upsetting but not shocking. Might work out better for tax rebate since I'm getting out of 7 months of taxes this year anyway but not thrilled.

 

[Friscorays]

Deposit placed April 2021. Received email revising estimated delivery from last quarter 2022 to first half 2023. We can wait.....

 

[ranieri]

Sept '20 preorder. Previous estimate was July-Sept. Got the same email, 1st half of 2023.

 

[MilliM]

Just got the same email with the same timeline of first half of 2023. I'm an April 2019 preorder, and I live within 5 miles of their Irvine HQ and about 10 miles from their Costa Mesa service center. Not knowing where I was on the list of R1S's vs. R1T's, I'm somewhat surprised & disappointed. I was wondering if I might be on the earlier end of deliveries (who knows - maybe it still is) given the stats above.

That said, as I've been saying for a while now, considering my May '21 ordered F150 Lightning has been in production, with an estimated delivery of late July or sometime in August, the upside is I'm getting a new model from a company with substantially more manufacturing expertise & experience. Another year for Rivian to work out the kinks and address some of the quality issues I've been seeing on the forum isn't the end of the world, and may very well be a blessing in disguise.

I know the Lightning isn't everyone's cup of tea, and I've never owned a truck, let alone a full size, but I'm pretty excited nonetheless.

 

[Tango45]

Good news: Rivian met a target date!
Bad news: moved from July - Sep 2022 to 1st Half 2023

 

[AdamsFan1983]

Just got the same email with the same timeline of first half of 2023. I'm an April 2019 preorder, and I live within 5 miles of their Irvine HQ and about 10 miles from their Costa Mesa service center. Not knowing where I was on the list of R1S's vs. R1T's, I'm somewhat surprised & disappointed. I was wondering if I might be on the earlier end of deliveries (who knows - maybe it still is) given the stats above.

That said, as I've been saying for a while now, considering my May '21 ordered F150 Lightning has been in production, with an estimated delivery of late July or sometime in August, the upside is I'm getting a new model from a company with substantially more manufacturing expertise & experience. Another year for Rivian to work out the kinks and address some of the quality issues I've been seeing on the forum isn't the end of the world, and may very well be a blessing in disguise.

I know the Lightning isn't everyone's cup of tea, and I've never owned a truck, let alone a full size, but I'm pretty excited nonetheless.

Don’t count on tha manufacturing experience; my local ford dealer (owner and business manager) both agree my R1T is better built than their demo lightning.

 

[runwithscissors]

Same except ordered August of 2020. Had the July to September delivery window originally. It's upsetting but not shocking. Might work out better for tax rebate since I'm getting out of 7 months of taxes this year anyway but not thrilled.

I know my deposit date is later than most people but I have OC interior and didn't change it so figured that may have something to do with it. Was scared to make any changes in the configurator but at this point I doubt it matters.

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