New Delivery Delay Confirmed - My R1T Delivery Pushed From October to end of February, 2022.

[rivianUGA]

My initial guide contact was in June (I think.) Was told october, then novemeber, then late october. Got the call 2 weeks ago that I'm now looking at late Q1. My reservation was in March of 2019. Metro Atlanta. LE, OC interior. I have since told my rep I am willing to change colors of exterior and interior if it speeds things up. He has noted all that. Will see. Also offered to pick the truck up in Normal and drive it home, if that helps.

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[stynes]

My initial guide contact was in June (I think.) Was told october, then novemeber, then late october. Got the call 2 weeks ago that I'm now looking at late Q1. My reservation was in March of 2019. Metro Atlanta. LE, OC interior. I have since told my rep I am willing to change colors of exterior and interior if it speeds things up. He has noted all that. Will see. Also offered to pick the truck up in Normal and drive it home, if that helps.

You have the R1T, not R1S, correct?

 

[ja_kub_sz]

What a time to be waiting for a EV! @JEV Absolutely am surprised by your situation. It's weird, I hope you get your car soon so I can come check it out ? (I'm 45 miles north of normal).

 

[dleewla]

I understand Rivian wanted to give the first set of vehicles to employees but if they keep doing that as more employees make orders and that bumps non-employees further down I think that's pretty messed up. They should wait in line like everyone else. You can't keep bumping actual customers for employees. I hope that's not what they are doing

 

[screamingkarts]

I understand Rivian wanted to give the first set of vehicles to employees but if they keep doing that as more employees make orders and that bumps non-employees further down I think that's pretty messed up. They should wait in line like everyone else. You can't keep bumping actual customers for employees. I hope that's not what they are doing

Rivian had a set period for all the employees to order R1T which is closed long time back. Employees cannot order after that period.

 

[SeaGeo]

Rivian had a set period for all the employees to order R1T which is closed long time back. Employees cannot order after that period.

I'm pretty sure I've seen at least one, if not more, employees who started this summer take delivery. I don't mind, but it appears that there wasn't some cutoff years ago.

 

[MoreTrout]

I think Rivian will actually get to a 4000-5000 a month rate by end of 2022 which allows nearly all preorders to be filled for several reasons.
a) they need to demonstrate to the market that they can make a significant number of cars to support a $100 billion valuation
b) they need some revenue coming in otherwise the $12 billion they raised will not cover many years of multi billion dollars losses and a new factory
c) they need to prevent preorder holders wandering off to Ford or others in 2023 if their orders are not filled
d) competition hits up in both the seven seater SUV market and the truck market and they need to capitalize on their head start
e) their factory at 50000 will only be running at 33% capacity with an expansion likely done (if a new factory can be built in 12-18 months how long does a small expansion take) and this is financially ruinous if it took TWO years to get to this rate.

For all the above reasons I expect a more rapid ramp up. If they are running at 600 in December then moving into the thousands a month should not be a huge jump. People have mentioned hiring and that is true, but they have quiet a few staff already and should easily be able to run a shift a day and then move to two a day (seven days a week).
I would add two other items to consider, yes there are supply chain issues but Rivian production is minimally in the perspective of the auto industry so getting 100000 seats, 200000 tires etc should not be a big ask for 50000 vehicles. Also as they can more brand aware orders will come in next year and if existing preorders are not filled until 2023 then new orders will be 2024 and that is going to hit future ordering. People will wait a few months but not 24 months.
Anyway just a few thoughts and I am hopefully for a q4 2022 order fulfillment. Will be interested in q1 ramp up figures.

Lots of valid points and thoughts, but a I think a couple are off a bit. At least for a truck, wandering off to Ford or others are probably only an option if you already had a longstanding preorder placed at the launch of their offerings. I would wager that making a new order today for a Rivian or Ford Lightning is probably 50/50 at best for which one you get first. A new order for a CT would probably be years behind either of those. The R1S, on the other hand, probably does have more competitive options available sooner.

50000 R1's is not 33% capacity. The 150,000 capacity is the total for all lines, including the EDV. The target annual production for the R1's is 45-65k, and the EDV 65-85k as I recall from the S-1. So 50,000 is only slightly under max capacity. But as you correctly point out, they will hopefully be able to expand that capacity by then.

 

[JEV]

What a time to be waiting for a EV! @JEV Absolutely am surprised by your situation. It's weird, I hope you get your car soon so I can come check it out ? (I'm 45 miles north of normal).

All we can do is wait. Thanksgiving is less than 2 weeks away, so I'm hoping for more clarity when I hear from my guide.

Let's get together @ja_kub_sz, when one of our trucks is delivered.

 

[Guy]

Lots of valid points and thoughts, but a I think a couple are off a bit. At least for a truck, wandering off to Ford or others are probably only an option if you already had a longstanding preorder placed at the launch of their offerings. I would wager that making a new order today for a Rivian or Ford Lightning is probably 50/50 at best for which one you get first. A new order for a CT would probably be years behind either of those. The R1S, on the other hand, probably does have more competitive options available sooner.

50000 R1's is not 33% capacity. The 150,000 capacity is the total for all lines, including the EDV. The target annual production for the R1's is 45-65k, and the EDV 65-85k as I recall from the S-1. So 50,000 is only slightly under max capacity. But as you correctly point out, they will hopefully be able to expand that capacity by then.

I agree on the truck reservation piece and delays going to Ford etc. I was thinking of people on the forums who have both reservations and have a somewhat realistic option of moving to Ford by end of 2023.

as for capacity, I know what the S1 says but having a capacity of 65-85000 EDVs makes no sense if Amazon is your only customer for the first four years and they want around 10000 a year. I expect that number to increase, but eight fold?
So I do expect capacity to be 100000+ for the consumer side of the business and the expansion of Normal will be complete before the end of 2023 so they will have 200000 (which is still low for a factory). Therefore they will still be running well under 100% capacity which is not financially a good idea.

 

[JEV]

Have you engaged with CS for an explanation? You should have been part of the earliest events held at the factory..

I attended the First Mile Event in Normal and got to do a test drive, but no guide contact yet. I've reached out to CS several times and it's always the same answer "You should hear from your guide by Thanksgiving".

 

[opnwide]

I do wonder if the employee owners had to sign a NDA for any problems that arise during the first few weeks/months of ownership. I’d be willing to bet so. We will never hear of any issues I’m sure, but I’m semi-ok with letting them be the test mules for a while before I’m one.

 

[MoreTrout]

Amazon is your only customer for the first four years and they want around 10000 a year. I expect that number to increase, but eight fold?

Going by memory here, but the plan for the Amazon vehicles was not 10k/year. It was 10k for 2022 and all 100k by 2025. The 2030 confusion came from Amazon's commercials with their plan to go all electric by 2030. They need far more than 100k to do that. Based on some recent comments from both of them, many expect an additional order beyond the first 100k s00n, but probably more importantly the wording about opening to other EDV customer orders in 2023 led to a lot of speculation that we might hear announcements about another customer(s). So the ramp to 65-85k/year by 2023 is highly probably - if able to execute of course.

 

[Guy]

Going by memory here, but the plan for the Amazon vehicles was not 10k/year. It was 10k for 2022 and all 100k by 2025. The 2030 confusion came from Amazon's commercials with their plan to go all electric by 2030. They need far more than 100k to do that. Based on some recent comments from both of them, many expect an additional order beyond the first 100k s00n, but probably more importantly the wording about opening to other EDV customer orders in 2023 led to a lot of speculation that we might hear announcements about another customer(s). So the ramp to 65-85k/year by 2023 is highly probably - if able to execute of course.

I had heard 100000 Amazon vans by 2030 but if we accept that is now by 2025 that is 20000 a year average. I was very surprised to read in the IPO materials that Amazon has an exclusive contract for four years. So there will not be any other customers. That seems a bad idea for Rivian, but if needed to get Amazon on board then so be it. If that is true then how will 250000+ EDVs over the next four years be required. That is why I think the 45-65k estimate for customer vehicles is too low, plus the expansion. They should easily get to 100k a year for the R1s and not by 2024 either. They have first mover advantage now but credible competition is coming.

 

[SeaGeo]

I do wonder if the employee owners had to sign a NDA for any problems that arise during the first few weeks/months of ownership. I’d be willing to bet so. We will never hear of any issues I’m sure, but I’m semi-ok with letting them be the test mules for a while before I’m one.

There's owner on Reddit who has specifically said no NDA. That doesn't mean they aren't encouraged to talk to their guide to get it fixed, but I have seen a few owners call out a few things to improve upon. Like the PAAK basically beig nonfunctional.

 

[MoreTrout]

I had heard 100000 Amazon vans by 2030 but if we accept that is now by 2025 that is 20000 a year average. I was very surprised to read in the IPO materials that Amazon has an exclusive contract for four years. So there will not be any other customers.

This is from a headline published 6 days ago:
"

• Rivian Automotive (RIVN) says on its website that it will start taking orders for its electric delivery vans in 2022 and will deliver them to fleet customers in the early part of 2023. It is unclear if Amazon formally gave up its exclusive rights to Rivian electric delivery vans to open the door for more sales.

So they WILL have other EDV customers much sooner than 4 years. I would bet Amazon gladly waived any exclusivity from the original 4 years if they saw it as a catalyst to their overall investment in Rivian. I hope they can scale both lines as fast as supply chains allow.

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