Sponsored

Needham positive ahead of Rivian’s (RIVN) 1Q delivery numbers

DuoRivians

Well-Known Member
Joined
Dec 30, 2022
Threads
189
Messages
2,784
Reaction score
6,511
Location
California
Vehicles
R1T, MY
Needham reiterated a Buy rating and $26.00 price target on Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) ahead of the electric automaker’s 1Q delivery report. The automaker is expected to release its delivery numbers early next week.

Analyst, Chris Pierce pulled Kelly Blue book data, which pulls data from the state RMV, showing 1Q23 RIVN vehicle registrations above the consensus RIVN delivery estimate. To test the accuracy of previous predictions, Pierce pulled Kelley Blue Book 3Q22 data published on Sept 28 and compared it to final OEM 3Q22 sales and found a tight correlation. The 4Q22 data was published in Jan '23, limiting any predictive value. However, Kelley Blue Book data has historically understated RIVN deliveries, as the data may not include RIVN commercial delivery vans.

Pierce wrote in a note, “RIVN missed consensus delivery estimates in 3Q and 4Q when the Kelley Blue Book data was below consensus. 1Q23 represents the first time the data has been above consensus. We attribute the wide variance between RIVN deliveries and the data to delivery van sales not being represented, and think that the 1Q23 consensus RIVN estimate includes both retail and commercial vehicles, creating room for upside.”

Needham also updated their used vehicle tracking data for RIVN and Lucid (NASDAQ: LCID) and views the data positively for RIVN, as they found fewer used RIVN vehicles for sale compared to LCID and Ford's (NYSE: F) F-150 Lightning pick-up truck, a more direct comparison to the RIVN R1T.
Sponsored

 

Guy

Well-Known Member
First Name
Guy
Joined
Nov 6, 2021
Threads
11
Messages
1,597
Reaction score
1,504
Location
Philadelphia suburbs
Vehicles
Mazda 6, Toyota Sienna
Occupation
Scientist
Clubs
 
We will see what they report but I would expect around 12K as a reasonable bump from the 10K last quarter and well on the way to 50k for this year. If it is in track I don’t expect a big stock increase since 50-60k is priced in for the year.
 

rockdogz

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 16, 2020
Threads
4
Messages
134
Reaction score
179
Location
Southern CA
Vehicles
2022 R1T
After visiting the Costa Mesa service center in person and seeing it filled to the gills with new R1's, and hearing similar stories from others in this forum from other service centers, I'm optimistic that the Q1 delivery numbers will be robust...
Sponsored

 
 




Top