My shopping adventure: Rivian vs F150 Lightning

Temerarius

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Sooooo.... one thing I have not seen called out in this all is "dealer markup". Just a quick sniff around the Seattle area shows a $5-$17k "dealer markup" on Ford EV products.

That said, I'm somewhat in the same place as you as I'm debating between the two.

I've trending R1T personally. I was going all in on the R1T (so the F150 I would spec was going to be a Platinum.. at which point the costs are about the same).

The biggest draws on the F150 for me is the bed size, the back seat, towing, V2H.
  1. Bed size: I don't often use the full bed on my Ram 1500 now, but when I do, it's nice to have. Not to mention, it's 21.5 inches high (so like, my cooler can fit back there and I can close the tonneau, I can't do that in the R1T).
  2. Back Seat: I haz dog, I being able to clear a flat open space I can put his bed in is a big deal. The R1T does not seem terribly well designed for this type of a situation. I am looking at a "foam block" of sorts that can go between the backseat and front seat to create a bit of a platform, but that's not terribly optimal.
  3. Towing: It's clearly rigged up, form the get go, to make towing as low stress as possible (built in scales, a UI that can build up a library of known trailers/impacts).
  4. Home Charing/V2H: At the "Max Pack" or whatever Ford calls it, you get that snappy 80Amp L2 and the capability to do V2H (both of which are pretty snappy).
The biggest hits for me on the F150 (and why I'm leaning R1T) are the size, range, charging rate, and suspension.
  1. Size: For the same reason I like the F150, it is also a problem. It won't fit in my garage, and parking a full sized truck, kinda sucks, especially as this would replace not just my current truck, but also my daily driver. When trying to park my current truck in the suburban shopping hell that I live near... it's... nose bleed time. So, having a smaller overall size (length and width) is a plus.
  2. Range: I have a Tesla X 100D that get "315" miles of range... but.. it doesn't (for one, it has the 22 inch aero's on it, so.. there went like 10% of my range). As such, in my experience, 300 miles is juuuuuuuust enough to be right on that cut point between "I can make it to destination X with no worries" and "SHIIIIIIT I'M NOT GUNNA MAKE IT, where's a charger?!". So, the 400 mile pack is a big deal for me, even if I'm not using it every day, it will spare a bit of annoyance (and side glances from my wife) when doing road trips.
  3. Charging Rate: F150 caps at 150Kw charging rate (as I understand it). It's bigger than, weighs more than, and has worse aero than the R1T. Thus, I expect that 300 mile pack in the F150 will probably be just a bit smaller than the MAX Pack in the R1T. That's a lot of juice to replace on a slower charger.
  4. Suspension: I love me some air ride. Not only does it allow for setting the truck up dynamically to tackle terrain and environmental conditions as needed, but also allows for better aero at highway speeds. Add in the crazy hydraulic system they put in the R1T to keep her level... that's a pretty tasty mix.
However, for me, one of the biggest draws is not having to deal with "Let me talk to my manager".
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I think it is a pretty simple solution for most. Which one do you tend to day dream about most and get overly excited about when talking to others about it?

I think there is a great reasoning for either truck. I have gone the rounds with pretty much everything you list below. At the end of the day to get a comparably equipped F-150 the price is negligible different in price compared to the R1T. So it boils down to which one you truly want (not need, but want).

If you need a truck that you use daily for your job as a tool. I feel the utility of the Ford fits the bill better for most people in that fall into that category. Plus it can potentially be used as a house back up in emergency situations.

If you love new tech, crazy four-motor performance, cutting edge suspension and standing out in a crowd than its a no-brainer a R1T is probably for you.

If it's a logical decision that needs to be made, then go strictly off the numbers and what the truck can do for you and give back as a "tool".

Either truck will do what most people "need" to do with a vehicle. The price point of comparable vehicles is negligible so at this point it more than likely comes down to an emotional decision. Most people already own the vehicles that they "need" so getting a new one does come down to emotion/want most of the time.

One of my friends told me, "Logic never solves a mid-life crisis, you need to go strictly off emotion".

So I'm here going back and forth on either an R1T or an F150 Lightning. I've done some pricing work below. As you can see, even the R1T Explore pkg. compares VERY favorably to the Lariat trim. With the Lariat, you have to add $7000 to get 300miles of range. So I've pretty much eliminated that from consideration. If I get a Lightning, it'll be an XLT+. Based on Ford's customer survey, that should come in at $4000 less than an R1T with the Explorer pkg. Again, the R1T is much better equipped.
 

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I would be careful with getting a raptor thinking it will hold its value. One thing to consider, thing about how the used car market is going to get completely Rekt when all the "chips" come in and they get installed into all these 2020/2021 vehicles that are just sitting in a field and we have a huge influx of one/two year old "new" cars hit the market. I think the car market gets completely recked in 2022. The only segment that won't get completely destroyed in value are EVs because supply will still be constrained compared to demand. Plus I believe that most people, once they have gone electric, won't look twice at buying an ICE vehicle ever again.

Just my two cents

I am doubtful I will keep both of them. However, I am hoping it will be good to have the option to pick one or the other. I don't think I am risking too much money, if any, by purchasing a Raptor and possibly getting a R1T in year, given the market for used cars and especially for Raptors. Hopefully, I am right.

Although a good friend of mine always says "hope is not a method." :CWL:
 
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Sgt Beavis

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I would be careful with getting a raptor thinking it will hold its value. One thing to consider, thing about how the used car market is going to get completely Rekt when all the "chips" come in and they get installed into all these 2020/2021 vehicles that are just sitting in a field and we have a huge influx of one/two year old "new" cars hit the market. I think the car market gets completely recked in 2022. The only segment that won't get completely destroyed in value are EVs because supply will still be constrained compared to demand. Plus I believe that most people, once they have gone electric, won't look twice at buying an ICE vehicle ever again.

Just my two cents
I agree with much of what you're saying here but I think the shortages aren't going to START recovering until 2023. But when it comes to the Raptor, that truck has ALWAYS had high resale values. Even the Gen2 Raptor, which had been on the market for 4 years, still had dealer markups. The current Raptor is so rare that it's going to hold its value for a good while.

But on many other vehicles, your argument has merit.
 

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I would be careful with getting a raptor thinking it will hold its value. One thing to consider, thing about how the used car market is going to get completely Rekt when all the "chips" come in and they get installed into all these 2020/2021 vehicles that are just sitting in a field and we have a huge influx of one/two year old "new" cars hit the market. I think the car market gets completely recked in 2022. The only segment that won't get completely destroyed in value are EVs because supply will still be constrained compared to demand. Plus I believe that most people, once they have gone electric, won't look twice at buying an ICE vehicle ever again.

Just my two cents
You certainly make good points, thank you.

However, my speculation is a bit different. The Raptor will hold value, because it has a very loyal and classic user base. A good portion of that loyal base despise EVs to surprising levels, I don’t think the off-road community will be switching to EVs in the next 5 year, at least not in significant numbers.

On the other hand, we are at the start of EV explosion. Next two years we will see so many different models and capabilities hit the market. I also believe the tradition automakers will still control majority of the market with models built on their extensive experience and user data. The EVs we purchase today will depreciate more than 60% in value in the next three years.

so, my speculative, low risk bet, is that it is better to buy an EV in 2022/23, than now. The Raptor is a place holder for up to 2-3 years. We’ll see if my speculation is even close then :CWL:
 

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You certainly make good points, thank you.

However, my speculation is a bit different. The Raptor will hold value, because it has a very loyal and classic user base. A good portion of that loyal base despise EVs to surprising levels, I don’t think the off-road community will be switching to EVs in the next 5 year, at least not in significant numbers.

On the other hand, we are at the start of EV explosion. Next two years we will see so many different models and capabilities hit the market. I also believe the tradition automakers will still control majority of the market with models built on their extensive experience and user data. The EVs we purchase today will depreciate more than 60% in value in the next three years.

so, my speculative, low risk bet, is that it is better to buy an EV in 2022/23, than now. The Raptor is a place holder for up to 2-3 years. We’ll see if my speculation is even close then :CWL:
Not all EVs are same. So far I haven’t noticed Tesla depreciated more than 50% in 3 years. Even before pandemic model 3 deprecated very little. I am pretty certain Rivian will hold its value well because they aren’t making cars like legacy manufacturers doing like a side project. Also backlog isn’t going away soon.
 

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What kind of suspension does the Ford Lightning have? The last Ford truck I drove (probably 2015 model) rode "like a truck". People have described the Rivian's suspension as something special. I'm a Sept 2019 R1S reservation holder, but I would guess R1T and R1S would have same suspension. Sure wish Ford would offer a BEV Explorer.
The suspension on the Lightning actually rides quite nice. It's definitely upgraded from the standard F-150 as it has to be to hold the extra weight and support the faster acceleration and different mass distribution of the EV platform. Also nice to have independent rear suspension, which was necessitated by the rear drive motor arrangement. I was quite impressed/pleased with the ride.

That said, it still is what it is with no adjustability or ride control. The dynamic air suspension on the R1T allows for changes to ride height, travel and stiffness for different terrain or drive modes / ride quality. I have not rode in an R1T, but having experienced adjustable air suspension in other vehicles, I'm super excited for it.

Hummer EV and CyberTruck will also have adaptive/ adjustable air suspension. Not sure what to make of the setup on the Hummer just yet. That thing is so heavy at 9000lbs all the quick acceleration/deceleration, even if WTF (launch) mode, has this spongey rocking-horse effect.
 

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Sooooo.... one thing I have not seen called out in this all is "dealer markup". Just a quick sniff around the Seattle area shows a $5-$17k "dealer markup" on Ford EV products.
This is an unfortunate reality of independent dealerships having control over pricing and a high demand / short supply situation. Not just demand for EVs, but pretty much all vehicles right now - especially trucks/SUVs.

There are still many dealerships out there who are not marking stuff up like crazy because they actually care more about long term relationships and repeat customers. Shop around, get your pricing in writing. But if you don't already have an early reservation in place you're probably out of luck unless you're willing to buy from an opportunist scalper or shady dealer for a huge premium.
 
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This is an unfortunate reality of independent dealerships having control over pricing and a high demand / short supply situation. Not just demand for EVs, but pretty much all vehicles right now - especially trucks/SUVs.

There are still many dealerships out there who are not marking stuff up like crazy because they actually care more about long term relationships and repeat customers. Shop around, get your pricing in writing. But if you don't already have an early reservation in place you're probably out of luck unless you're willing to buy from an opportunist scalper or shady dealer for a huge premium.
Yup, one reasons I didn’t include it is because ADM varies so much between dealers. My dealer guaranteed me that there is no mark up. on customer ordered vehicles. I’ve verified this with several people that ordered Broncos through them. My neighbor got a Mach-E through the same dealer as well.
 

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Read a few comments about Rivian/RJ's promise of a future (secret double-probation) VTH power transfer capability satisfying some who were primarily drawn to Ford' Lightning's ProPower technology. Do they believe Rivian will reveal VTH specifications that come close to the details Ford released day-one? Good luck with that....
 

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Not all EVs are same. So far I haven’t noticed Tesla depreciated more than 50% in 3 years. Even before pandemic model 3 deprecated very little. I am pretty certain Rivian will hold its value well because they aren’t making cars like legacy manufacturers doing like a side project. Also backlog isn’t going away soon.
Although I agree that Teslas will hold value, not as much as before probably. Tesla enjoyed the fruits of their very hard work for ten years by bringing innovation no one else did. However, that is changing now.

The legacy automakers now believe in EV, so much so that Ford is making an increasing amount of investments in products and associated components. GM is also accelerating, Kia, Hyundai, and many other Chinese manufacturers are going to flood the market. Audi committed to eliminating all ICE models by 2026!!! Porsche started testing a hybrid GT3 on a 400-volt architecture. I can go on and on.

Tesla has a huge following, appears to be similar to Apple, so they'll buy whatever it brings to market. However, 'legacy' automakers know how to make cars. Do not underestimate this knowledge, it will make a big difference (such as the Taycan and now the Audi eTron GT). Rivian is novel without a doubt, but I believe it will be short-lived. As soon as the Pandemic is mostly over and people go back to their high-intensity office lives and forget about how much they need the 'adventure,' they will start buying EVs that look, feel and drive like ICE vehicles. Rivian will still have a market share without a doubt, but not as big as some assume.

As I said, it is all speculation. It is tremendously fun to observe and converse this market shift, at least for me :)
 

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Although I agree that Teslas will hold value, not as much as before probably. Tesla enjoyed the fruits of their very hard work for ten years by bringing innovation no one else did. However, that is changing now.

The legacy automakers now believe in EV, so much so that Ford is making an increasing amount of investments in products and associated components. GM is also accelerating, Kia, Hyundai, and many other Chinese manufacturers are going to flood the market. Audi committed to eliminating all ICE models by 2026!!! Porsche started testing a hybrid GT3 on a 400-volt architecture. I can go on and on.

Tesla has a huge following, appears to be similar to Apple, so they'll buy whatever it brings to market. However, 'legacy' automakers know how to make cars. Do not underestimate this knowledge, it will make a big difference (such as the Taycan and now the Audi eTron GT). Rivian is novel without a doubt, but I believe it will be short-lived. As soon as the Pandemic is mostly over and people go back to their high-intensity office lives and forget about how much they need the 'adventure,' they will start buying EVs that look, feel and drive like ICE vehicles. Rivian will still have a market share without a doubt, but not as big as some assume.

As I said, it is all speculation. It is tremendously fun to observe and converse this market shift, at least for me :)
Rivian is very price competitive even without considering it's an EV. Good looking (ok, it's subjective), good utility, nice interior, air suspension, and great range. By desirability, I see it somewhere Range Rover and Audi SQ7 than Jeep Wrangler territory. Also it's in the pickup truck/SUV space where vehicle depreciate less. If more companies are interested, that's awesome, we'll have more good products.

I don't understand why depreciation will be high though. I don't want to compare with Nissan Leaf or BMW i3 for depreciation numbers, they are poorly made and relatively overpriced from the beginning.
 

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Rivian is very price competitive even without considering it's an EV. Good looking (ok, it's subjective), good utility, nice interior, air suspension, and great range. By desirability, I see it somewhere Range Rover and Audi SQ7 than Jeep Wrangler territory. Also it's in the pickup truck/SUV space where vehicle depreciate less. If more companies are interested, that's awesome, we'll have more good products.

I don't understand why depreciation will be high though. I don't want to compare with Nissan Leaf or BMW i3 for depreciation numbers, they are poorly made and relatively overpriced from the beginning.
High depreciation will come from exterior and interior design IMHO.
Designers and manufacturer's are figuring out what attracts and what does not, and how to best utilize the additional interior space they now have with EVs. I saw couple of private early surveys on general buyers' preferences, and the last thing they want is a tablet dominated enteriors. Most people seem to be confused or uneasy about those. A good mixture of screen real estate with traditional buttons, vent controls, etc. seem to be the answer.

The new models coming up from traditional manufacturers are very striking without being completely futuristic. This also seems to be a key point, inside and out. A comparative example might be Tesla's yoke vs. Cadilac's (or Mercedes') interior and exterior designs. The MB's new electric G-wagon is already attracting attention and anticipation. Same with Cadilac, Audi and Porsche's SUVs.

Rivian's approach is a bit too simplistic IMO, similar to ioniq 5. But the ioniq5 is targeted at a much lower price point. At $70+K Rivian will struggle to sell large quantities to 40+ crowd, who are the ones that have the most disposable income and do expect more easily accessible luxury. If they find it, which they will, than they will go in that direction. Rivian may stay a bit more niche than I would like, but maybe not, I hope they continue to innovate and not be afraid of trying new things.
 

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Read a few comments about Rivian/RJ's promise of a future (secret double-probation) VTH power transfer capability satisfying some who were primarily drawn to Ford' Lightning's ProPower technology. Do they believe Rivian will reveal VTH specifications that come close to the details Ford released day-one? Good luck with that....
Yes, just don't know when. It's clear to me that Rivian intends to follow the Tesla/Lucid path of an entire ecosystem of vehicle/energy products, starting now with the vehicle but also home battery, solar, etc. That is why they were valued by investors what they were, the vehicles alone don't support the valuation, and they won't have to.

That's why Tesla is worth what it is, and that is the potential for Rivian and Lucid to do the same. Heck, even Hyundai is doing it ("Hyundai Home"), albeit through partnerships with people like LG.

The potential is to disrupt not just the auto industry, but the energy utility industry.
 
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