May 9th Earnings Call Discussion

[jeeden]

Thought I would start for the earnings call today. Any predictions? I'm thinking:

• Rivian announces a big beat on productions numbers as I feel they have been pumping them out which puts them easily on the path to the production target for the year
• The stock drops 5% because it's the stock market and if you said on an earnings call that you found a gold mine with giant nuggets pouring out of it the investors would say they are the wrong size/shape/weight and don't shimmer as much as other gold mines.

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[tosehee]

Look at a long term... Short term volatility is really nothing here..

The real question is whether you believe Rivian will succeed in a long run or not, and make an investment decision accordingly.

I feel like the stocks wil go down little further due to market pressure, but I am adding more wheneer those events happen.

 

[NY_Rob]

My prediction.. stock will be down at the close going by history.

Good news or bad, doesn't matter which..... Rivian stock always falls after any mention.

 

[DuoRivians]

Q1 production/delivery numbers have already been announced, so no surprises there.

Things to look out for: Does Rivian signal more cost controls than market anticipates? Will they raise full year guidance? I don't think they'll lower it, since RJ already affirmed it in the latest shareholder letter released last week.

 

[jeeden]

Look at a long term... Short term volatility is really nothing here..

The real question is whether you believe Rivian will succeed in a long run or not, and make an investment decision accordingly.

I feel like the stocks wil go down little further due to market pressure, but I am adding more wheneer those events happen.

I agree. I had funded my IPO stock with a small sale at the peak so I have been gobbling up cheap shares here and there the last year.

I'm very interest on any R2 news they might have, but I think they are going to save that for the fall.

 

[junkanoo]

Don't expect anything from an Earning Call.

Analysts throw softball questions so that they stay off the naughty list. Because, if they ask the tough questions, Rivian won't take their questions, nor will GM, Ford etc. And then the Analyst is seeking work because they get replaced by someone that knows better.

No investor should care about R2 plans until Rivian can make a good profit selling higher-margin vehicles. Until that happens, the very idea of R2 is a complete non-starter.

 

[mkg3]

Thought I would start for the earnings call today. Any predictions? I'm thinking:

• Rivian announces a big beat on productions numbers as I feel they have been pumping them out which puts them easily on the path to the production target for the year
• The stock drops 5% because it's the stock market and if you said on an earnings call that you found a gold mine with giant nuggets pouring out of it the investors would say they are the wrong size/shape/weight and don't shimmer as much as other gold mines.

They have already announced the Q1 production and delivery numbers already so there is no beat on this. The issue is Capex, EPS and gross margins for backward looking stuff.

For the forward guidance, its the cash burn rate, expected production for the rest of the year and how macroeconomic conditions are impacting the company.

The only way the stock price doesn't drop is if Rivian guide up on production, significant accomplishments on GA factory build, or have non-exclusive Amazon deal negotiated for the EDV or all of the above...

 

[Nacho Rivian]

Rivian is traded at just its asset value (cash + factories). Upbeat on increased production will make investors excited this quarter. Too early to focus on profit at this time. Once Rivian can clear all pre-orders by this fall, their balance sheet will look better by Q4 2023. They should not scare future customers by providing excellent customer service. They should also focus on improving initial quality before delivery if possible.

 

[Guy]

Rivian is traded at just its asset value (cash + factories). Upbeat on increased production will make investors excited this quarter. Too early to focus on profit at this time. Once Rivian can clear all pre-orders by this fall, their balance sheet will look better by Q4 2023. They should not scare future customers by providing excellent customer service. They should also focus on improving initial quality before delivery if possible.

They will clear R1T pre-orders this year but the R1S pre order holders stretch well into 2024.

 

[itselectric]

I would like to hear some better guidance on max pack, dual motor configs, and the Enduro program as a whole. These are the "short term" factors that are going to help sustain and/or propel Rivian in the near-term (through this year at least).

Is everything on still on track? Ramp going well? etc.

 

[Sharpobjects4321]

9,395 produced Q1 of 2023
7,946 delivered in Q1 of 2023

around 700 million in revenue- the only "surprises" would be better than expected revenue because more post 3/1 vehicles, and/or they have cut cost and/or they revised the 50,000 yearly production number up or down. if the revenue hits and cost stays the same as predicted by wallstreet without any new information the stock will go lower. who knows we might get EDV news on the contract with Amazon that might be helpful, with new partnerships but I doubt it.

 

[jollyroger]

No investor should care about R2 plans until Rivian can make a good profit selling higher-margin vehicles. Until that happens, the very idea of R2 is a complete non-starter.

But wasn't the model 3 one of the reasons Tesla became profitable? Not saying analysts would care but seems like there is some precedent for the volume model to be considered a factor.

 

[junkanoo]

Rivian is traded at just its asset value (cash + factories). Upbeat on increased production will make investors excited this quarter. Too early to focus on profit at this time. Once Rivian can clear all pre-orders by this fall, their balance sheet will look better by Q4 2023. They should not scare future customers by providing excellent customer service. They should also focus on improving initial quality before delivery if possible.

First ... welcome to the forum Nacho!

"Too early to focus on profit at this time" ?? That's why Rivian is trading at what it's trading ... nothing else matters (or you get assigned book value, if that). There are too many others in the space for any grace period, in my view. Unfortunately, that ship sailed. With inflation, I'm not remotely sure that Rivian will make a profit on new orders. If so, where does that leave them?

 

[SANZC02]

But wasn't the model 3 one of the reasons Tesla became profitable? Not saying analysts would care but seems like there is some precedent for the volume model to be considered a factor.

Yes, and they did not have a profitable year until 3 years after the Model 3 was released. Model 3 launched in 2017, first full year Tesla had a profit was 2020.

Most of the earlier quarters with a profit were based on selling emission credits to other manufacturers.

 

[junkanoo]

But wasn't the model 3 one of the reasons Tesla became profitable? Not saying analysts would care but seems like there is some precedent for the volume model to be considered a factor.

That reminds me of the old joke about the Smorgasbord Restaurant that loses money on every customer but makes it up in volume.

I'm just not sure how the cost of key components is going to go anywhere but up, putting Rivian in a tough spot when customers are going to be concerned about Rivan surviving.

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