Many of you are mistaking how to think about the order queue...

[Craigins]

Keep in mind, those estimates came out when Rivian was estimating 50k vehicles built in the first year.

Stop spreading this. The only number we've ever had for 2022 is 10k EDV. Aside from that, just a qualitative all LEs.

Some analyst said 50k in 22 and that analyst is an idiot. They aren't expecting full factory production rates until the end of 2023. That pretty much rules out any shot of 50k vehicles in 2022.

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[Craigins]

Were those delivery windows based on Rivian's hope of delivering 50k in 2022?

This number is fake news. People need to stop parroting it.

 

[AllInev]

Yes? And water is wet?

Except when it is frozen?

 

[AllInev]

This number is fake news. People need to stop parroting it.

Changed to "more than 25k". Are you happy now?

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

Stop spreading this. The only number we've ever had for 2022 is 10k EDV. Aside from that, just a qualitative all LEs.

Some analyst said 50k in 22 and that analyst is an idiot. They aren't expecting full factory production rates until the end of 2023. That pretty much rules out any shot of 50k vehicles in 2022.

The closest thing to "50k in '22" that was said was RJ or Brian G. anecdotally telling someone at the Colorado Event that they "expected" to deliver all existing preorders (as of mid-sept '22) in 2022. At that time, it probably represented about 40,000 vehicles. The caveat there being whether or not they knew at the time that they would not be doing Max or Explore in '22, in which case that would actually represent closer to 25k total. There are a TON of assumptions in there though and its purely anecdotal.

 

[Craigins]

Changed to "more than 25k". Are you happy now?

Yes! We have the Mandela effect going on with this 50k bs number. Drives me crazy.

 

[AllInev]

This number is fake news. People need to stop parroting it.

Not sure "fake news" is the right description. Shortly before and after the Nov 2021 IPO, many analysts (I don't like them either, but it is their job to analyze) were expecting 40k-50k numbers from Rivian in 2022. I wouldn't call those numbers "fake news"?

 

[Craigins]

The closest thing to "50k in '22" that was said was RJ or Brian G. anecdotally telling someone at the Colorado Event that they "expected" to deliver all existing preorders (as of mid-sept '22) in 2022. At that time, it probably represented about 40,000 vehicles. The caveat there being whether or not they knew at the time that they would not be doing Max or Explore in '22, in which case that would actually represent closer to 25k total. There are a TON of assumptions in there though and its purely anecdotal.

Yes, this was QUICKLY corrected in the S-1 filing to note that all preorders would be fulfilled by the end of 2023.

And that "all preorders" could have been missing a LE context. IE all LE preorders.

 

[Craigins]

Not sure "fake news" is the right description. Shortly before and after the Nov 2021 IPO, many analysts (I don't like them either, but it is their job to analyze) were expecting 40k-50k numbers from Rivian. I wouldn't call those numbers "fake news"?

When people state "Rivian projected to produce 50k" it is a flat out lie.

Analysts predicted Rivian would produce is completely different.

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

I think you can make a case that a Q3 2021 order for an Adventure R1T could be delivered in CY 2022. The biggest variable in being able to calculate whether a non-LE R1T will fit into the 15,000 or so that are expected to be produced in 2022 is the number of LE R1S that exist and nobody outside Rivian seems to know that. Personally I think it's either 10k total LE with a 50/50 split between R and S or 7,500 total with a 50/50 split.

From there, you can subtract non-LE R1S, Explore, and Max pack pre-orders and a small # of abandoned preorders. Depending on how optimistic you are, there is a path there, but it's very narrow.

 

[Weeyam eyesore]

OP has to be the same person on Facebook that every time a new post goes up about “if I ordered today when will I get the vehicle” and everyone says 2024-2025, the same person always goes no no no it will be definitely earlier than that. There will be a massive production ramp and it won’t be 2-3 years from now

 

[nc10]

Keep in mind, those estimates came out when Rivian was estimating 50k vehicles built in the first year. They later cut that in half to 25k (including vans).

Where did you see 50k?

I got my LE R1T delivery window on Nov 23 2021. Based on what Rivian published earlier that month, they were forecasting (at least strongly implying) well below 50K in 2022 when the estimates were sent out.

3 weeks earlier, on Nov 5 Rivian amended the S-1 filing including saying: "Based on our current production forecast, we expect to fill our pre-order backlog of approximately 55,400 R1 vehicles by the end of 2023." (preorders as of 10/31) I did not see a production forecast in the Oct 1 version of the S-1. The delivery window survey seems to match this "end of 2023 prediction.

 

[Jac]

I would add to this:

Rivian has pretty much always stated that R1T deliveries would run (only) a little ahead of R1S deliveries. Expect a significant number of LE R1S this year, resulting in all of the LE R1T's and LE R1S's to be delivered this year (supply chain allowing). The original delivery window emails indicated the LE R1S deliveries would carry into September 2022. Rivian has indicated the remainder of deliveries this year will be Adventure trim large pack R1S's and R1T's, and from the delivery survey, they'll start being significant in Q3.

I assume Rivian will try to "sort of" follow order date when picking among the adventure trim deliveries, with chances probably better on the west coast and a few other places near SC's. I'd estimate very few orders submitted after the S-1 was filed (at the 48,000 preorder count) to be filled in 2022.

I predict inflation, supply chain problems limiting other car manufacturers, high gas prices, trends toward reducing GHG emissions and +++ reviews will make Rivian's conversion rate of pre Mar 1 orders higher than what Tesla or anyone else has seen in the past.

Yet there are also potential risks that may lead to weaker conversion rates even among pre-3/1/22 preorder holders, e.g., rising interest rates impact on non-cash R1 buyers (what % are paying cash?), equity market downturn “reverse wealth effect,” slowing economic growth related employment/income insecurity, etc.

Not trying to be a nattering nabob of negativism. Just saying there are a lot of factors at play. In any case, I’m a huge Rivian fan!

 

[zipzag]

Yet there are also potential risks that may lead to weaker conversion rates even among pre-3/1/22 preorder holders, e.g., rising interest rates impact on non-cash R1 buyers (what % are paying cash?), equity market downturn “reverse wealth effect,” slowing economic growth related employment/income insecurity, etc.

Not trying to be a nattering nabob of negativism. Just saying there are a lot of factors at play. In any case, I’m a huge Rivian fan!

I had nuclear war as my #1, but higher interest rates may also reduce conversion rates.

 

[paariv]

Also, when we talk about fulfilling all preorders, we have to factor in cancellations of at least 25%. Rivian will only produce vehicles for those that can complete the purchase, so even that 55k number that Brian Gase referenced needs to be knocked down quite a bit (to at least 40-45k) before we can use it as a guide for how many actual vehicles Rivian will build.

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