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[LOCKED DUE TO INACCURATE FIGURES] Rivian U.S. Sales January 2025

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Rade

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This is like watching the YouTube channel "Autoline Daily"; one day they report sales are up, the next day they report sales are in the toilet for the same manufacturer. We just ignore it.
 

manitou202

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I've been considering an R1T lease when my Lucid lease is up in April, but their lease rates took a big jump in January. Roughly $150-$200 a month. Looks like the really good lease deals are gone for the moment, which will likely hurt some sales.
 

Nixapatfan

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January is usually a bad month for sales so can't judge based on that. But they need to fix service and fast. R2 isn't going to save them, when the default sc appointment is 2 months out regardless of severity of issue it scares potential buyers that are risk averse. Plus Range Rover parts and labor costs aren't going to fly with R2 buyers.
 

elektrode

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There could very well be a tri-motor R2X in the mid- to high-$60k.
Yes please! Pikes Peak RAD factory wrap too please.

That X flavor, I think, is a strong branding item and if they could leverage it with R2 instead of waiting for R3, I think it would be great!
 
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Mark_AZR1T

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I’m not sure what to make of this, but I don’t see the R1 series ever surpassing 40K units per year. It’s a North America-only platform, starts at $80K+ for a good configuration, and is pretty expensive to produce. At best, it’s a break-even halo vehicle—without true luxury—that put Rivian on the map.

Rivian has just missed out on timing to hit a homerun on the sales front for any of their vehicles for the forseeable future. My wife and I love our R1s, but we have an early adopter mindset. We expected issues and weren’t too concerned about price, as early pre-orders were reasonable. However, long-term ownership costs will be high.

I don't see R2 sales hitting more than 10-12K per month, unless they can adhere to a well equipped vehicle for $50K (edit - and get it to market like now). The R2’s post-warranty costs will also be significant. Pricing remains to be seen, but I expect a solid configuration to start at $60K+.

To me it’s no surprise Rivian is shifting the highight reel and revenue focus toward Rivian Tech rather than vehicle sales. But hey, what do I know? I just build jack pucks.
 
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emlo

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I think everything should always be analyzed with all available data and context. If you look at the FRED (from the federal reserve) data January is usually the lowest in terms of auto sales. where December is usually peak. This shouldn't be surprising

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA
 

kurtlikevonnegut

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I don't see R2 sales hitting more than 10-12K per month, unless they can adhere to a well equipped vehicle for $50K (edit - and get it to market like now). The R2’s post-warranty costs will also be significant. Pricing remains to be seen, but I expect a solid configuration to start at $60K+.
I don't really agree with this. I think the sweet spot for R2 will be around $55k. By all accounts the biggest post-warranty costs for R1 involves the suspension. The R2 will have a much more traditional suspension that should be more reliable, easier to work on, and have less expensive components. I'd expect the big ticket items like motors and HV battery to be covered for a much longer period warranty.
 

Biturbowned

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Looking across social media platforms, I predict R2 will be very successful.
 

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mkg3

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It's like all things new.

When introduced and still not available, just about everyone wants one.

Once available, aside from the early adopters, interest drops and actual sales are fraction of total reservations/interests.
 

HaveBlue

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I refused to buy Tesla because there was nowhere to buy parts. Rivian has the same issue but was the only 4wd option. Things won't go well for them when these things go out of warranty and there's nowhere to get them fixed. Word will get out. Scout with it's VW parts Network may well be popular with buyers who can fix it themselves or go to their favorite mechanic.

My experience so far is that EVs are not nearly as reliable as ice. Everything from fuel dispensing to software clutches counted.
 

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I refused to buy Tesla because there was nowhere to buy parts. Rivian has the same issue but was the only 4wd option. Things won't go well for them when these things go out of warranty and there's nowhere to get them fixed. Word will get out. Scout with it's VW parts Network may well be popular with buyers who can fix it themselves or go to their favorite mechanic.

My experience so far is that EVs are not nearly as reliable as ice. Everything from fuel dispensing to software clutches counted.
You are 100% correct. Right now any out-of-warranty work is super expensive and Rivian has a full monopoly on it, including parts and labor. They can charge whatever they want, and there is no competition in sight.

There are always people who can lose 50k in 3 years w/o feeling a pain. But mainstream will not buy Rivian if they can not get it serviced without breaking the bank. Just look how much Rivian charges for replacing dampers, breaks, etc - BMW X7 owners are paying less.

Rivian can fix this problem in 5 min by introducing extended warranty plans and maintenance plans. This will give current owners confidence in the brand.
 

SANZC02

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It's like all things new.

When introduced and still not available, just about everyone wants one.

Once available, aside from the early adopters, interest drops and actual sales are fraction of total reservations/interests.
I think that is true of many vehicles because there are similar competitors to choose from.

If you use the Model Y as a comparison the sales are just now dropping off in its 6th year. Some of that is probably EM falling out of favor but it also could be that there are several similar competitors out there.

Right now not so many R2 direct competitors so it still has a shot. That may change if they fall deep into 2026, the earlier they start deliveries the better for them.
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