Sponsored

It's July 1, who get's a delivery this month?

hed

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jan 31, 2021
Threads
12
Messages
183
Reaction score
489
Location
SE
Vehicles
Tesla M3P, Raptor, Rivian Reservation 13##
I know this redundant on my part, but... practically speaking there is nothing I've seen online, in the media or any information releases by Rivian that gives me any confidence they are even remotely ready. I could be wrong but I'm betting they are at least 6 months away from any meaningful movement of vehicles, perhaps a year or more.
Sponsored

 

Sponsored

DucRider

Well-Known Member
First Name
Gary
Joined
Oct 21, 2019
Threads
17
Messages
1,652
Reaction score
3,143
Location
ORegon
Vehicles
Polestar 2, Ioniq, R1S
I'm betting they are at least 6 months away from any meaningful movement of vehicles, perhaps a year or more
I'll take that bet.
I'll put up a Rivian polo (or something similar when the shop opens) for a piece of that as well. We will need to define "meaningful". What is your interpretation @hed ?
 

hed

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jan 31, 2021
Threads
12
Messages
183
Reaction score
489
Location
SE
Vehicles
Tesla M3P, Raptor, Rivian Reservation 13##
I'll put up a Rivian polo (or something similar when the shop opens) for a piece of that as well. We will need to define "meaningful". What is your interpretation @hed ?
Fair question. I cannot put a specific number (i.e. 1000 cars a week) because that's not how I was thinking when I wrote my post. I was coming from the angle of enough vehicles to meet the expectations on deliveries of LEs.

My belief, based on what I've seen, is Rivian is going to slowly trickle out vehicles, for whatever the reasons are at this point in time. I believe they will do this until they get production up to enough vehicles as to be obvious to the casual Rivian follower that they are filling orders at a fairly decent pace. What that number is I cannot quantify with any confidence.

IF I am correct, I do not see a way LE orders will be complete in the time frame stated or implied. My timer started June 2021 because that had been the expectation set by Rivian until the July change. Six months is the end of December basically. How many estimated preorders are there? We can all probably agree Rivian will not start out producing 5k vehicles a week. How long will it take them to get there? How about just to 2k? I think they are limiting what they sell and where, not just based on service center location but also based on what they believe/assume they can produce and how long it will take them to get fully operating.

Let me turn the question around, what would you consider meaningful? If Rivian drops 100 trucks between now and November, would that be enough? How about 1000 vehicles?

I think the best metric would be what I said up higher "until they get production up to enough vehicles as to be obvious to the casual Rivian follower that they are filling orders at a fairly decent pace.". Don't you think we will start seeing the YT videos, reviews, post of forums enough to know it's happening?

How long it takes them to get production up to "meaningful" is an unknown. I'm skeptical until Rivian gets out some information or vehicles to make me feel less so.
 

RWerksman

Well-Known Member
Site Sponsor
First Name
Rob
Joined
Nov 13, 2020
Threads
57
Messages
1,391
Reaction score
3,119
Location
Pittsburgh
Vehicles
Jeep & R1T
Over the first full year of Model S production, Tesla averaged 432 / week.
Over the first full year of Model X production, Tesla averaged 487 / week.

Maybe the better metric is that they delivered about 2,400 X's / quarter during the first quarter of 'meaningful' production after the first quarter producing 240 vehicles.

I think if they can produce 2,500 by the end of the year that would be something. Ideally, I'd want to see double that.

Frankly though, if they just produce just that, I'd agree the point that @hed is making is correct.
 
Last edited:

opnwide

Well-Known Member
First Name
Brian
Joined
Nov 18, 2020
Threads
30
Messages
1,085
Reaction score
4,904
Location
Denver, CO
Vehicles
R1S delivered 2/2023
Over the first full year of Model S production, Tesla averaged 432 / week.
Over the first full year of Model X production, Tesla averaged 487 / week.

Maybe the better metric is that they delivered about 2,400 X's / quarter during the first quarter of 'meaningful' production after the first quarter producing 240 vehicles.

I think if they can produce 2,500 by the end of the year that would be something. Ideally, I'd want to see double that.

Frankly though, if they just produce just that, I'd agree with the point that @hed is making is correct.
Well said both @hed and @RWerksman! Better wash the Rivian Polo on cold, delicate cycle, and hang dry to make it last a while. Rivian will get there, but it’s gonna take some time. I’m still patiently waiting…and still a fan.
 

SeaGeo

Well-Known Member
First Name
Brice
Joined
Jan 12, 2021
Threads
47
Messages
5,235
Reaction score
9,677
Location
Seattle
Vehicles
Xc60 T8
Occupation
Engineer
Taking a qualitative stance to "meaningful." VW is obviously producing a decent number of ID.4s, and has been for a few months now. Same with Ford and the MMe. I've seen between 4 and 10 of either. By the time I've seen say... 3 Rivian's in the wild, I'd say they've produced a meaningful number.
 

Sponsored

SANZC02

Well-Known Member
First Name
Bob
Joined
Feb 11, 2021
Threads
29
Messages
5,258
Reaction score
8,859
Location
California
Vehicles
Tesla Model S, LE - R1S
Occupation
Retired
Over the first full year of Model S production, Tesla averaged 432 / week.
Over the first full year of Model X production, Tesla averaged 487 / week.

Maybe the better metric is that they delivered about 2,400 X's / quarter during the first quarter of 'meaningful' production after the first quarter producing 240 vehicles.

I think if they can produce 2,500 by the end of the year that would be something. Ideally, I'd want to see double that.

Frankly though, if they just produce just that, I'd agree the point that @hed is making is correct.
I was thinking if they could average 750+ a month August thru December it would be a huge accomplishment. That would be 3750 vehicles for 2021.

Tesla started in June of 2012 and delivered 2650 total that year. So their first 7 months they averaged 378 a month. They did better in 2013 getting the monthly average up to 1873 cars.

Rivian R1T R1S It's July 1, who get's a delivery this month? 39192292-E625-49F8-97EF-79697C85FC38
 

azbill

Well-Known Member
First Name
Bill
Joined
Jun 8, 2020
Threads
14
Messages
1,261
Reaction score
1,558
Location
Arizona
Vehicles
R1T, Mach E, Hummer EV SUT
Occupation
Engineer
Taking a qualitative stance to "meaningful." VW is obviously producing a decent number of ID.4s, and has been for a few months now. Same with Ford and the MMe. I've seen between 4 and 10 of either. By the time I've seen say... 3 Rivian's in the wild, I'd say they've produced a meaningful number.
First spotted this MME in my Driveway June 14. :)

Rivian R1T R1S It's July 1, who get's a delivery this month? IMG_0123
 

kanundrum

Well-Known Member
Joined
May 2, 2020
Threads
217
Messages
3,976
Reaction score
12,107
Location
Washington, DC
Vehicles
Giulia QV, R1S (S00N)
Occupation
IT
Clubs
 
^^ Route 1? I drove my buddies finally who got his in March. Handles Great, brakes are super aggressive to a point where it reminds me of my racecar haha. It needs a set of sticky tires and a nice road course to really get good driving feel!
 

azbill

Well-Known Member
First Name
Bill
Joined
Jun 8, 2020
Threads
14
Messages
1,261
Reaction score
1,558
Location
Arizona
Vehicles
R1T, Mach E, Hummer EV SUT
Occupation
Engineer
^^ Route 1? I drove my buddies finally who got his in March. Handles Great, brakes are super aggressive to a point where it reminds me of my racecar haha. It needs a set of sticky tires and a nice road course to really get good driving feel!
Yes, Route 1, I wanted max range and did not need AWD in Phoenix. They have already discontinued the Infinite Blue color.

GT orders have just started, those will be the racecars.
 

Hmp10

Well-Known Member
Joined
Mar 7, 2019
Threads
5
Messages
629
Reaction score
542
Location
Naples, FL
Vehicles
2015 Tesla Model S P90D; 2018 Honda Odyssey
Over the first full year of Model S production, Tesla averaged 432 / week.
Over the first full year of Model X production, Tesla averaged 487 / week.
And that was from a company that doesn't worry a whole lot about quality off the production line. (A Model S Plaid was recently delivered with the rear spoiler mounted crookedly, the license plate frame rubbing the paint, and a rear window gasket hanging into the passenger compartment.)

Lucid Motors has said that the first customer cars will come off their production line at the rate of 10 cars per day to allow for thorough quality checking and will ramp up slowly from that rate.

My guess is that if Rivian is going to be concerned about the quality of its early deliveries, it's also going to ramp up slowly from a relatively low initial production number.

I think most of us are in for a longer wait than we're really absorbing at this point.
Sponsored

 
 




Top