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Here's a recap of today's big IPO! -- via Bloomberg

Rivian briefly tops $100 billion market value, then eases in IPO debut
Company sold 153 million shares in an upsized offering at $78 per share.

Rivian R1T R1S IPO Day Recap: Rivian briefly tops $100 billion market value, then eases in IPO debut https___d1e00ek4ebabms.cloudfront.net_production_b004216f-feb2-49d2-a46f-ab705de98eb4


November 10, 2021

NEW YORK -- Shares of Rivian Automotive Inc. surged on Wednesday after the electric vehicle-maker raised about $11.9 billion in the biggest initial public offering of the year.

Shares in Rivian rose to as much as $119, but ultimately closed the day at $100.73, giving the startup company a market value of $98.6 billion.

Backed by deep-pocketed companies such as Amazon.com Inc. and Ford, Rivian sold 153 million shares Tuesday after marketing the price between $72 to $74, a range it had earlier elevated from $57 to $62.

The listing -- under ticker symbol RIVN -- is the biggest globally this year, and the sixth-largest ever on a U.S. exchange, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Rivian is hitting the public markets as it looks to make a dent in the electric vehicle market led by Tesla Inc., which has a market value of more than $1 trillion.


Founder and CEO R.J. Scaringe said in a Bloomberg TV interview Wednesday that Rivian’s biggest challenge is the “health of the supply chain” as it ramps up production amid parts shortages.

The company’s valuation reflects the company’s ability to scale quickly and its plan to build commercial vehicles, Scaringe said. That starts with 100,000 battery-electric delivery vans for Amazon, which Scaringe described as an “initial order.”

In addition to consumer EVs, Tesla has also built out a strong and growing energy-storage business including solar, home and commercial energy storage. Scaringe indicated that Rivian is looking at expanding in similar lines of business.

“For us, it’s a question of how do we, as rapidly as possible, transition ourselves away from a fossil-fuel based economy?” Scaringe said. “And that of course has a huge focus on the transportation products. But it also includes energy products. And this is something that we will certainly get into as we really try to accelerate that.”

Just a couple of months ago, Rivian delivered its first vehicles, mostly to its own employees. It will only produce about 1,200 units by year-end at its plant in Normal, Ill. The company, which lost nearly $1 billion in the first half of the year, estimates that annual production will hit 150,000 vehicles at its main facility by late 2023.

Big backers

Though it’s a newcomer to the public market, Rivian’s entry into the world of consumer EVs has been more than a decade in the making.

Scaringe set up the first iteration of what would become Rivian in 2009 in his home state of Florida.

Over the years, it attracted a wide array of backers. As much as $5 billion of the IPO shares are set to be bought by investors including Amazon, T. Rowe Price, Coatue Management, Franklin Templeton, Capital Research Global Investors, D1 Capital, Third Point Investors, Blackstone Inc., Dragoneer Investment Group and Soros Funds.

Rivian had a net loss of $994 million in the first six months of 2021, compared with a $377 million deficit a year earlier, according to its filings. Rivian expected to record a quarterly net loss of as much as $1.28 billion due to costs associated with the start of production of the R1T.

Rivian plans to allocate up to 7 percent of its shares to eligible U.S. customers who had pre-orders as of Sept. 30. To attract retail investors, up to 0.4 percent of the IPO shares will be allocated to SoFi Securities LLC’s online brokerage platform.

Scaringe is expected to maintain outsize influence over Rivian through a class of stock giving him 10 votes per share, compared with one vote each for the shares sold in the IPO.

The offering is being led by Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co., with more than 20 banks listed on the cover page of its prospectus.

Rivian R1T R1S IPO Day Recap: Rivian briefly tops $100 billion market value, then eases in IPO debut 106973322-1636551478694-gettyimages-1236476761-RIVIAN-IPO
Rivian R1T R1S IPO Day Recap: Rivian briefly tops $100 billion market value, then eases in IPO debut rivian-ipo (1)
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moondog417

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Can you imagine if it priced at the top of the initial estimate? Though now that I’ve gotten a 25% return on my investment after one day, the question becomes how much to leave long term and how much profit to walk away with right now. I will probably liquidate about 20% of my initial investment to put back into other securities.
 

LoneStar

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You gotta wonder when will the $&*^ hit the fan once the valuation insanity fades away. I mean they have 1 plant globally. Goal is for that 1 plant to hit 150k vehicles annually... two years from now. They want another domestic plant and at least one European plant but realistically those are 3-5 years away (at best) to produce meaningful numbers of vehicles.

So most likely, Rivian will produce at sub 50k/yr rates for the next 18 months. Meanwhile typical automakers churn out 2 - 10 Million vehicles annually - EACH! Graph below is dated and pre-Covid but still indicative of a stable market worldwide. To put it into perspective while the Year values are outdated, the magnitude of Rivian's contribution is equal to or less than the size of its legend dot!

Rivian R1T R1S IPO Day Recap: Rivian briefly tops $100 billion market value, then eases in IPO debut AutoAnnualNos.PNG


Yes, Rivian is more a tech-data / cloud enterprise that happens to use vehicles as its platform. Well, the traditional OEM's are learning that game fast from Tesla and certainly will be adopting or adapting similar offerings as future vehicles become more & more connected & OTA updatable.
 

stumptown85

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Stock valuations are a measure of forward looking earnings…Tesla is a great example where the value is often looking at where we think they will be in 5 or more years.

You gotta wonder when will the $&*^ hit the fan once the valuation insanity fades away. I mean they have 1 plant globally. Goal is for that 1 plant to hit 150k vehicles annually... two years from now. They want another domestic plant and at least one European plant but realistically those are 3-5 years away (at best) to produce meaningful numbers of vehicles.

So most likely, Rivian will produce at sub 50k/yr rates for the next 18 months. Meanwhile typical automakers churn out 2 - 10 Million vehicles annually - EACH! Graph below is dated and pre-Covid but still indicative of a stable market worldwide. To put it into perspective while the Year values are outdated, the magnitude of Rivian's contribution is equal to or less than the size of its legend dot!

AutoAnnualNos.PNG


Yes, Rivian is more a tech-data / cloud enterprise that happens to use vehicles as its platform. Well, the traditional OEM's are learning that game fast from Tesla and certainly will be adopting or adapting similar offerings as future vehicles become more & more connected & OTA updatable.
 

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You gotta wonder when will the $&*^ hit the fan once the valuation insanity fades away. I mean they have 1 plant globally. Goal is for that 1 plant to hit 150k vehicles annually... two years from now. They want another domestic plant and at least one European plant but realistically those are 3-5 years away (at best) to produce meaningful numbers of vehicles.

So most likely, Rivian will produce at sub 50k/yr rates for the next 18 months. Meanwhile typical automakers churn out 2 - 10 Million vehicles annually - EACH! Graph below is dated and pre-Covid but still indicative of a stable market worldwide. To put it into perspective while the Year values are outdated, the magnitude of Rivian's contribution is equal to or less than the size of its legend dot!

AutoAnnualNos.PNG


Yes, Rivian is more a tech-data / cloud enterprise that happens to use vehicles as its platform. Well, the traditional OEM's are learning that game fast from Tesla and certainly will be adopting or adapting similar offerings as future vehicles become more & more connected & OTA updatable.
One of the better points I've heard is that you have to factor in debt load as well. Ford has $146b in debt. GM has about $100b. VW is the most indebted organization in the world with nearly $200b in debt. Toyota is in a better position with only around $77b in debt.

Granted, some of this is offset by assets - each having significantly more than Rivian - but there is a cost to servicing all of that debt. How many millions of vehicles must be produced each year to keep the lenders at bay?

When you see a Rivian or Tesla with much less debt, a strong order backlog, excellent partners, and class-leading technology that is a generation (or two) ahead, and it starts to make much more sense despite the lower deliveries.
 

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One of the better points I've heard is that you have to factor in debt load as well. Ford has $146b in debt. GM has about $100b. VW is the most indebted organization in the world with nearly $200b in debt. Toyota is in a better position with only around $77b in debt.

Granted, some of this is offset by assets - each having significantly more than Rivian - but there is a cost to servicing all of that debt. How many millions of vehicles must be produced each year to keep the lenders at bay?

When you see a Rivian or Tesla with much less debt, a strong order backlog, excellent partners, and class-leading technology that is a generation (or two) ahead, and it starts to make much more sense despite the lower deliveries.
Yep, debt/capital structure as well as just the entire business model. Tesla/Rivian/Lucid sell at retail whereas legacy OEMs sell at wholesale.

Look up what the legacy makers spend on marketing per vehicle sold, and what percentage that is of the starting gross profit on that vehicle. Legacy makers earn zero service revenue (but do sell parts). McConaughey doesn't work for free.

What would it cost for Ford to acquire its entire dealership network to be on the same playing field (they have a total of about 3,500 in the US alone)? Cadillac is paying dealers $200k just to terminate the relationship.

Legacy OEMs are making Blackberries instead of iPhones, but they at least appear to be less stubborn than Mike Laziridis. It's just going to take a long time to turn around 50-100 years of engrained mindset.
 

kurtlikevonnegut

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Yep, debt/capital structure as well as just the entire business model. Tesla/Rivian/Lucid sell at retail whereas legacy OEMs sell at wholesale.

Look up what the legacy makers spend on marketing per vehicle sold, and what percentage that is of the starting gross profit on that vehicle. Legacy makers earn zero service revenue (but do sell parts). McConaughey doesn't work for free.

What would it cost for Ford to acquire its entire dealership network to be on the same playing field (they have a total of about 3,500 in the US alone)? Cadillac is paying dealers $200k just to terminate the relationship.

Legacy OEMs are making Blackberries instead of iPhones, but they at least appear to be less stubborn than Mike Laziridis. It's just going to take a long time to turn around 50-100 years of engrained mindset.
GM also pays around $2,000 per car produced for retirement benefits of former employees, who outnumber current employees. Other legacy OEMs have smaller but similar amounts. So Tesla/Rivian/Lucid can take advantage of the market price caused by that cost, sell a car for the same amount, and make $2,000 more in profit.
 

Dbeglor

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GM also pays around $2,000 per car produced for retirement benefits of former employees, who outnumber current employees. Other legacy OEMs have smaller but similar amounts. So Tesla/Rivian/Lucid can take advantage of the market price caused by that cost, sell a car for the same amount, and make $2,000 more in profit.
Yep, all adds up to why Tesla has twice the gross margins and several multiples of net margins vs. their peers.
 

mikeB

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Great thread to thank RJ, Rivian and it's BOD for throwing some IPO love our way. Even if the stock tanks we all had an opportunity to cash in /out at minimal risk with a refundable deposit! It will be worth the wait.
 

RWerksman

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Legacy OEMs are making Blackberries instead of iPhones, but they at least appear to be less stubborn than Mike Laziridis. It's just going to take a long time to turn around 50-100 years of engrained mindset.
Now that's a name I haven't heard in quite some time.

Yeesh.
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