Investor Business Daily Article (20k deliveries in 2021?)

[stynes]

Found this with quick Google search. Parroting Rivian's announcement about revised timing for initial R1T deliveries

Rivian postpones first deliveries by several weeks - electrive.com

Thanks - I hadn't seen that. I agree with the article conclusion. The different timelines don't seem to all add up.

Sponsored

 

[SANZC02]

Where have you seen that all LEs won't be delivered until Spring? I'm not questioning the realism of the statement, I just don't recall having seen Rivian say that.

Also - how do you feel about them potentially delivering some non-LEs before all LEs are delivered? Is that a possibility? I kind of assumed all LEs would be delivered first, but maybe not?

That was in the announcement with the latest delay. They said that deliveries would start in September and they expected them to all be delivered by Spring of 2022, first day of summer is June 21, 2022 so that gives them to there for the deliveries.

I cannot imagine that in some of the larger areas where they have the support infrastructure in place that we will not be seeing non-LE deliveries in specific areas once the LEs in this regions are completed.

Keep in mind they said that LEs would have priority delivery, it is still a priority delivery as long as they are the first ones delivered in the regions as the infrastructure is completed. I do not read that as all LEs will be delivered before any other vehicles are delivered. Just does not make sense from a manufacturing standpoint to not deliver where they have support regardless of LE or not.

 

[jjswan33]

Also - how do you feel about them potentially delivering some non-LEs before all LEs are delivered? Is that a possibility? I kind of assumed all LEs would be delivered first, but maybe not?

The speculation I've seen puts that as likely. For instance if you have a LE order and live in Alaska or Canada or some where else more remote it may take time for them to have service available and to be comfortable making deliveries.

 

[stynes]

That was in the announcement with the latest delay. They said that deliveries would start in September and they expected them to all be delivered by Spring of 2022, first day of summer is June 21, 2022 so that gives them to there for the deliveries.

I cannot imagine that in some of the larger areas where they have the support infrastructure in place that we will not be seeing non-LE deliveries in specific areas once the LEs in this regions are completed.

Keep in mind they said that LEs would have priority delivery, it is still a priority delivery as long as they are the first ones delivered in the regions as the infrastructure is completed. I do not read that as all LEs will be delivered before any other vehicles are delivered. Just does not make sense from a manufacturing standpoint to not deliver where they have support regardless of LE or not.

Makes sense. I wish we had more visibility into the geographic prioritization.

 

[eggpaul]

These guys are saying 2018ers might get their trucks by the end of 2021, if you live in any of the listed cities.

 

[stynes]

These guys are saying 2018ers might get their trucks by the end of 2021, if you live in any of the listed cities.

And where's ATL on that list?

 

[jjswan33]

These guys are saying 2018ers might get their trucks by the end of 2021, if you live in any of the listed cities.

That seems like a pretty conservative prediction. I've seen claims elsewhere that people have been told to expect their R1T before the end of October and don't even live in one of those metro areas. For instance I had seen a claim for Atlanta specifically.

 

[eggpaul]

And where's ATL on that list?

Does Atlanta have a ready service center?

 

[Autolycus]

Does Atlanta have a ready service center?

No. They've got a lease on a warehouse, and they've filed for construction permits. Permit probably still has a while to go before approval though. They haven't even completed the zoning review, which is the first step. Although that review is due by Friday from the city...

 

[eggpaul]

No. They've got a lease on a warehouse, and they've filed for construction permits. Permit probably still has a while to go before approval though. They haven't even completed the zoning review, which is the first step. Although that review is due by Friday from the city...

That seems like a pretty conservative prediction. I've seen claims elsewhere that people have been told to expect their R1T before the end of October and don't even live in one of those metro areas. For instance I had seen a claim for Atlanta specifically.

Why would they tell that person Oct when the service center is probably months away from being ready?

 

[Dark-Fx]

Why would they tell that person Oct when the service center is probably months away from being ready?

Technically all they need to do business is an occupancy permit. The conversion to service center doesn't need to be finished yet. If they have that they can do mobile service.

 

[Moonjock]

The speculation I've seen puts that as likely. For instance if you have a LE order and live in Alaska or Canada or some where else more remote it may take time for them to have service available and to be comfortable making deliveries.

Being in Alaska with an LE reservation this is what I expect.

 

[Temerarius]

I love the optimism, but no chance they make that many R1Ts with the time left in the year. The math just doesn’t work.

We know that at full speed they can make a vehicle every 4 or 5 minutes. So let’s just say 15 per hour x 16 hours per day x 6 days per week x 10 or so work weeks left in the year (accounting for holidays etc). = 14,400 at full capacity. If they even run at half speed this year I’d be highly impressed.

You are assuming they will "shut down the line" and not run 24x7.

My friends and contacts that work on the Jeep line have made it very clear, those lines never shut down, unless there is retooling, a chip shortage, a strike, or the vehicle is being throttled back (and even then they tend to mix the line with a like model).

288 R1T's per day, 86 days... that put's them just shy of 25k vehicles by Dec 31.

I also don't expect all of those to be LE's.. I suspect that they will be movin' and groovin' to get trucks into the hands of those folks they have support centers first. As such, while LE's will be going out the door, so too will non-LE's orders. They will probably "wrap up" LE's (which I assume is somewhere between 1,500 and 5,000 R1Ts) deliveries by Spring of next year based on location and available services (should be interesting to see how they deal with the "dick head states"), but that non-LE's will be well underway as well.

Makes sense. I wish we had more visibility into the geographic prioritization.

You kinda do... look for the Service Centers... either already in place, or the "opening soon/planned"

 

[LoneStar]

might not be the right thread for this comment/question ... but it seems odd that a 2nd & 3rd date for follow-on First Mile Events hasn't happened. Would expect by now that something in Seattle, San Fran or L.A. (or all 3) would be fixed on the calendar by now.

 

[Temerarius]

might not be the right thread for this comment/question ... but it seems odd that a 2nd & 3rd date for follow-on First Mile Events hasn't happened. Would expect by now that something in Seattle, San Fran or L.A. (or all 3) would be fixed on the calendar by now.

They are too busy trying to get TFL a truck they can test "honestly"...

Sponsored