Investor Business Daily Article (20k deliveries in 2021?)

jjswan33

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Maybe this has been reported elsewhere but this article claims that “Rivian expects to deliver 20,000 vehicles in 2021.”

Hoping this means most of us will get our LE R1Ts this year 🤞


Investor Business Daily Rivian IPO article
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Craigins

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Might be including the amazon vans in that number.
 

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I love the optimism, but no chance they make that many R1Ts with the time left in the year. The math just doesn’t work.

We know that at full speed they can make a vehicle every 4 or 5 minutes. So let’s just say 15 per hour x 16 hours per day x 6 days per week x 10 or so work weeks left in the year (accounting for holidays etc). = 14,400 at full capacity. If they even run at half speed this year I’d be highly impressed.
 

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I love the optimism, but no chance they make that many R1Ts with the time left in the year. The math just doesn’t work.

We know that at full speed they can make a vehicle every 4 or 5 minutes. So let’s just say 15 per hour x 16 hours per day x 6 days per week x 10 or so work weeks left in the year (accounting for holidays etc). = 14,400 at full capacity. If they even run at half speed this year I’d be highly impressed.
21k units in fiscal year 2021 is probably what they’re talking about. That doesn’t end in December.
 
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jjswan33

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jjswan33

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I love the optimism, but no chance they make that many R1Ts with the time left in the year. The math just doesn’t work.

We know that at full speed they can make a vehicle every 4 or 5 minutes. So let’s just say 15 per hour x 16 hours per day x 6 days per week x 10 or so work weeks left in the year (accounting for holidays etc). = 14,400 at full capacity. If they even run at half speed this year I’d be highly impressed.
With that math they would only meet 75k vehicles/year but they stated capacity at their factory of 150k. While I agree that 20k seems a little optimistic we can only hope. If they can do half of that seems like they could at least finish R1T LE production in the US (of course not knowing how many that is) in 2021.
 

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With that math they would only meet 75k vehicles/year but they stated capacity at their factory of 150k. While I agree that 20k seems a little optimistic we can only hope. If they can do half of that seems like they could at least finish R1T LE production in the US (of course not knowing how many that is) in 2021.
The 150k number is for both the R1 and the delivery vans. The delivery van line is supposed to have a higher rate.
That being said, they’ve had the line working for a couple of weeks. So I would say 12 weeks. But I agree they are unlikely to be at full speed any time soon.
 

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The S-1 mentions that they only expect to deliver 100 Amazon Vans in 2021...That would leave 19,900 for all of us :clap::clap:
Though the same article says they only expect to deliver 10 Amazon Vans in 2021, so maybe the other number is off by a factor of 10 (2k instead of 20k?) :D
 

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21k units in fiscal year 2021 is probably what they’re talking about. That doesn’t end in December.
Their fiscal year ends Dec 31 as stated in the S-1
With that math they would only meet 75k vehicles/year but they stated capacity at their factory of 150k. While I agree that 20k seems a little optimistic we can only hope. If they can do half of that seems like they could at least finish R1T LE production in the US (of course not knowing how many that is) in 2021.
That's for all production lines. R1T is produced on 1.
 

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I suspect that 20k figure was sourced from some very old statements suggesting Rivian was targeting 20k-40k units in the first year of production. Given the lack of fact checking by the press these days and zero mention of the source of their "20k in 2021" figure, I have absolutely zero confidence in the figure. And frankly, as others have pointed out, it simply doesn't seem realistic.
 

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I do not think they have 20K LE orders, that number just sounds way to high for a Launch Edition.

They have also said they do not expect to have all LEs delivered until Spring '22 and I do not recall seeing anywhere where they expect non-LEs before January so I have no faith that article is accurate.
 

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I do not think they have 20K LE orders, that number just sounds way to high for a Launch Edition.

They have also said they do not expect to have all LEs delivered until Spring '22 and I do not recall seeing anywhere where they expect non-LEs before January so I have no faith that article is accurate.
Where have you seen that all LEs won't be delivered until Spring? I'm not questioning the realism of the statement, I just don't recall having seen Rivian say that.

Also - how do you feel about them potentially delivering some non-LEs before all LEs are delivered? Is that a possibility? I kind of assumed all LEs would be delivered first, but maybe not?
 

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