Interactive Rivian Delivery Estimate Dashboard - Submit your delivery estimate and visualize the results with this Tableau dashboard

[MrMusAddict]

Here's my analysis of the data after 1000 submissions:

Spoiler: Analysis

Hey everyone!

I'm a reddit user who has created a Google Form and connected a Tableau dashboard to the results. As of writing this post we already have over 400 submissions with juicy data! But just in case you guys don't use reddit, I wanted to share it with you all.

Tableau Dashboard: https://public.tableau.com/app/prof...veryEstimates/RivianDeliveryEstimateDashboard

Google Form: https://forms.gle/cpL3rCFECQAqq7Ec8

The Tableau dashboard will update daily automatically (I believe), or whenever I refresh it manually (which will likely be a few times per day over this weekend).

If you're unfamiliar with Tableau, you should be able to click each option in their respective table, and it will filter all of the other results. You can even Shift + Click to select multiple, so for example if you want to filter out Max Pack, you can Shift + Click "Standard" and "Large".

If you're itching to analyze the data yourself, here are the live raw results: Link

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[jclicky]

Some seriously awesome Tableau work for your first time using Tableau. Agreed on the redditor comment on your post: “Do you want a job?” Haha! If you’re not already doing data work for your 9-5 should consider it!

Rivian should hire you for a remote role; this kind of dashboard is a great service for those of us waiting & trying to decide between configs, weighing all kinds of variables like proximity to service centers, etc.

Hey @Administrator i think this tableau view should be some kind of a sticky, it’s super helpful data to see in real-time.

Also, have you @MrMusAddict considered plotting out current Rivian service centers so we can extrapolate some of the logic on delays vs. fulfillment when Rivian (it now seems from emails & some pronounced timeline estimates) is now prioritizing fulfillment to customers near service Centers? Would love to get some Tableau experience myself so lmk if you would appreciate any assistance building that out too

 

[fromSf]

Tableau dashboard is cool and its clear based on the responses R1S with OC earliest delivery estimate is Apr 2023.

 

[Redline]

Yeah I get the feeling had I kept BM in my R1S, I would have been still in the 1H23 window and not Q3.

 

[MrMusAddict]

Some seriously awesome Tableau work for your first time using Tableau. Agreed on the redditor comment on your post: “Do you want a job?” Haha! If you’re not already doing data work for your 9-5 should consider it!

Rivian should hire you for a remote role; this kind of dashboard is a great service for those of us waiting & trying to decide between configs, weighing all kinds of variables like proximity to service centers, etc.

[...]

@MrMusAddict have you posted this to Rivian Stories forum?

Also, have you @MrMusAddict considered plotting out current Rivian service centers so we can extrapolate some of the logic on delays vs. fulfillment when Rivian (it now seems from emails & some pronounced timeline estimates) is now prioritizing fulfillment to customers near service Centers? Would love to get some Tableau experience myself so lmk if you would appreciate any assistance building that out too

Ha, thanks! Already working a 9-5 job as a Data Engineer, just wanted to use my free time analyzing these estimates since it seemed interesting & potentially useful.
Great idea on adding the service centers. I'll see if I can pull that in separately and plot them on the same map.

 

[BigSkies]

Great visualization project!

Let's put this data to use for 2023 production estimates.

As of 12/31/2021, they had about 71k pre-orders. With 2022 production of about 15k R1's, that leaves about 56K pre-orders from 2021 and earlier.

While I know some 2022 orders will get delivered, I'm assuming this isn't a significant percentage of the total.

Assuming this data is representative, about a third of the 2021 and earlier orders are scheduled for 2024+.

This implies R1 production of about 37K in 2023.

I'll round that up to a personal guess of 40K R1 vehicles in 2023.

Anyone have a different take?

 

[domoplaytime]

connected a Tableau dashboard

Great to see more use of data and visualisations here. You're in good company. Here's my analysis of trade in value decline from summer to fall:
https://www.rivianforums.com/forum/threads/trade-in-process-and-value.9112/post-223186

 

[BillyBob]

This is absolutely phenomenal. I drilled down on the R1S using the Tableau dashboard and was able find at least three parameters that threw you into 2024:
Color: LA Silver has 16 orders shown, two to ship in 2023, and 14 to ship in 24...
State: If you live in Illinois, you won the geographical lottery: out of 20 orders, 19 will be shipped in 2023, only one in 2024. On the opposite end it sucks to live in North Carolina, as all seven orders are scheduled for 2024. I would have expected California, Rivian HQ, to match Illinois, but about 35% of their orders are scheduled for 2024.
Date: The biggest clue is Date ordered. Most orders before 11/21 have 2023 deliveries, but starting in November, and then ramping up in December (1-2023 and 22-2024), January (1-2023 and 6-2024), and February (0-2023 and 23-2024).
But, things change if you ordered in/after March 22: Out of 8 orders in March, six of them are 2023 shipments, and two in 2024, with April showing 6 in 2023 and four in 2024.

I didn't drill through every parameter so there may be other items that affect delivery. Also, this is a live database, so the numbers will change as more information is added.
I strongly recommend that you follow the link to enter data into this. It is extremely easy and this is exactly what we need to understand what Rivian is doing.
Finally, while moving to Illinois is one option to improve my chances, I think I will stay put in Washington.

 

[Surfinkal]

Data Engineer here too.

 

[Enjen]

Hey everyone!

I'm a reddit user who has created a Google Form and connected a Tableau dashboard to the results. As of writing this post we already have over 400 submissions with juicy data! But just in case you guys don't use reddit, I wanted to share it with you all.

I'd love to see results for Canada. Any reason Canadian provinces couldn't be added to list of locations in the form instead of just "outside of USA"?

Great work by the way!

 

[goldburger]

You don't have all the estimates available as options. I wanted to submit but mine isn't there.

 

[MrMusAddict]

You don't have all the estimates available as options. I wanted to submit but mine isn't there.

Oh, which are missing?

 

[goldburger]

Oh, which are missing?

Not all the windows given are by quarter years. My window is Dec 2022-Jan 2023, a fairly tight window!

 

[Gamma rays]

If I am reading the data correctly, there have been 15 reports of R1S orders with dual motors. Of these, 11 with estimated delivery in 2023. Of the 11, only 1 with reported order date before mine.

Can some explain to me how my R1S (quad) is push back to be delivered in 2024 when I ordered in early 2021, live only about 1 hour (~70 miles) away from the nearest SC, and have BM interior?

GR

 

[DTown3011]

Entered my data! Fun to watch, thanks for posting.

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