yizzung
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- Jul 30, 2020
- Threads
- 50
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- 794
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- Location
- California / Colorado
- Vehicles
- R1T | Audi allroad
- Occupation
- Tech
No. Weāre just looking at it differently. Iām looking at it like a person who has worked in Silicon Valley for 25 years, including stints at 2 of the biggest household brands in tech. You are looking at it as a consumer who really really wants something.You are looking at it wrong.
Yes, there is a chunk of the market that does not want CarPlay/Android Auto at all. And Tesla has established themselves as a gorilla in that chunk of the market. Plus this will be a very small slice of the market because you can just not use it.
There is another chunk of the market that will absolutely require CarPlay/Android Auto. They will not consider Teslas. This is the camp I am in. I want to try a pure electric manufacturer, I donāt really want to by an eTron or a Ford electric. But I will be forced to do that if Rivian is stubborn/stupid.
And then there are people who donāt view it as a requirement but would prefer to have it. This will by far be the biggest chunk of the market, probably around 60% - 70%. These folks are going to put a Lightning and an R1T and a CyberTruck side by side and consider the features and pricing. And if Rivian concedes a feature to the competition, they are starting at a disadvantage in that exercise. And Tesla is already well ahead of them because they have an established name and service centers.
So can Rivian survive like this? Of course they can. But they have made it much harder on themselves, and they will grow more slowly. And because it will take millions of vehicles on the road before this becomes a significant revenue stream, the $90k sale to me that they will lose probably exceeds the revenue they would get from that stream in the first few years.
By your logic, Apple computer should have abandoned its own OS years ago and focused on Microsoft Windows clones, which is what āthe marketā wanted. I guess they should also put Android on their phones while theyāre at it because of all the Android users who stubbornly refuse to buy iPhonesā¦
You are discounting or outright ignoring the value that can be created via vertical integration under the false assumption that some indeterminate amount of market share is always preferred to profit and/or differentiation achievable through vertical integration. (Tesla disagrees with you.)
Lastly you undermine your entire argument and help prove my point by suggesting that Rivian is going to āforce youā to buy a car without it. LOL. Thatās exactly what they are attempting to do, just like Apple, just like Tesla. If you want to drive a Chevy with AA/CP, they are willing to let you.
It doesnāt mean that they will be successful. Iām not smart enough to know if the bet will pay off or if Rivian will remain solvent in the long run. I just recognize the game they are playing and understand very clearly that they arenāt as stupid as you suggest. Or that they are only at least as stupid as Apple or Tesla, which is not the worst company to keep.
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