theyoungone
Well-Known Member
- First Name
- Isaiah
- Joined
- Nov 1, 2022
- Threads
- 8
- Messages
- 234
- Reaction score
- 521
- Location
- Madison, AL
- Vehicles
- RAV4 Hybrid
- Occupation
- Engineer
Sir, I think you're looking for wallstreetbets xD
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Lisa & Bob
Well-Known Member
- First Name
- Bob
- Joined
- Feb 29, 2020
- Threads
- 6
- Messages
- 114
- Reaction score
- 156
- Location
- Escalante, Utah
- Vehicles
- 20217 Toyota Highlander Hybrid, 2023 Rivian R1S
- Occupation
- theoldbaileyplace.com, Escalante, Utah.
We have been purchasing RIVN since the IPO. I plan on continuing until we reach 1000shares. This is being treated as an education fund for our one year granddaughter. Trying to buy low so she deals with the capital gains. (Smile)
DRJ564
Well-Known Member
This/\
I’m watching for the bottom, I want to buy, but it’s 2am at the club and I see RIVN looking hot and alone. I know I’ll wake up in the morning saying what was I thinking.
ksurfier
Well-Known Member
Out of the top 10 EVs in 2023, the R1S was the 3rd highest grossing sales ($2.3B) and was only beaten by Tesla's Model Y ($17.4B) and Model 3 ($8.6B). The Bolt, Mach-E, and Model X all came in slightly under $2B in sales each.
The R2 and R3 will compete for the $45k range midsize group where cumulative 2023 sales were almost 700,000 units. For 2024, this group will likely be 750,000 to 800,000 total sales. By the time of R2 launch there will be demand of at least 1,000,000 midsize units. Rivian will be well positioned to capture at least 25% of the market, will just be a question of ramp up and factory capacity.
While there may be a stripped down R2 at $45k, I would bet the average R2 will be high 50s to low 60s...if inflation continues then add another $5-10k...
The R2 and R3 will compete for the $45k range midsize group where cumulative 2023 sales were almost 700,000 units. For 2024, this group will likely be 750,000 to 800,000 total sales. By the time of R2 launch there will be demand of at least 1,000,000 midsize units. Rivian will be well positioned to capture at least 25% of the market, will just be a question of ramp up and factory capacity.
While there may be a stripped down R2 at $45k, I would bet the average R2 will be high 50s to low 60s...if inflation continues then add another $5-10k...
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- Banned
- #36
Ford should discontinue the Mache, it was a novelty when launched but has quality issues and Ford loses too much to justify it continuation.
TSLA has been going nowhere but down since late 21, I think it will take a lot of work and/or time to get momentum going again in the EV space.
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fyton2v
Well-Known Member
- Thread starter
- #37
Going to spew some things that’ll disagree with some of the negative sentiment about the EV market and reinforce my own bias. So bonus.
People have short memories and EV enthusiasm will be restored when gas prices go up in the summer. EVs can be very convenient for home owners and suburbanites. And suburbanites don’t see all EVs the same way. Aspiration, identity, emotion and other touchy/feely/consumerism gets mixed in there. The thing that appeals to me about Rivian vehicles is that they are appealing. Many cars in general are not appealing. I don’t want one because it’s an EV. I just want one.
People have short memories and EV enthusiasm will be restored when gas prices go up in the summer. EVs can be very convenient for home owners and suburbanites. And suburbanites don’t see all EVs the same way. Aspiration, identity, emotion and other touchy/feely/consumerism gets mixed in there. The thing that appeals to me about Rivian vehicles is that they are appealing. Many cars in general are not appealing. I don’t want one because it’s an EV. I just want one.
UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan
Well-Known Member
Or when the next international crisis occurs (and there are several storms brewing). Out here in SoCal, it wasn't that long ago when regular gas was over $7/gallon. How quickly people forget. Even at current prices, and with nothing but public charging, I pay less than half of what I was spending for 18~20 gallons of diesel. Yes, the fuel tax the state makes the public pay is partly to blame. But, it doesn't change reality of how much it costs at the pump. Fossil fuels is only going to cost more. And as employers divert funds to invest in AI, they will not be investing in employee compensation.
gultin
Well-Known Member
I feel the novelty and excitement of owning an EV is wearing off, due to most early adopters probably already owning one. To take it to the next level, EVs will now need to compete with ICE cars, and be truly competitive in terms of price, features, convenience, ease of use etc etc. ie all the reasons that have historically made a successful vehicle.
It's fair game now, but I believe EVs have a lot more factors (quick, frunk/storage, low maintenance , cheaper to run with home charging, fresh UI etc) in their favor than not (need to own home+garage to charge cheaply, limited charging options while road tripping). So despite all the doom and gloom around EVs, they will continue to grow significantly even if at a lower rate than the past couple years.
All EVs are down now. Rivian is down due to that and then some, primarily due to it's cash burn rate in a very tough environment. The only way for Rivian to dig itself out of this is continued focus on BOM reduction and growing demand across all it's existing and upcoming products. I believe they're doing all they can, but only time can tell whether that's enough. My hunch is that it will be, which is why I'm in.
So that's the risk/reward profile for this game most of us are playing. If you're okay with losing all of what you've invested in this company, you'll sleep a lot better and maybe even have some fun playing.
What gives me hope in their ability to cut cost is the attached table, which shows that they improved their gross margin per vehicle by 80-90k, when they focused on getting EDV to GM positive, while deliveries nearly doubled. If they can pull off something similar with R1 by the end of 2024, along with beating the drum on R2, the narrative could begin to change. The stock market is very fickle and can turn on a dime. If the stock can get up into the 20s they'll have a much easier time raising more capital, which they'll obviously need for the foreseeable future, at least until R2/R3 ramp to multiple 100k deliveries per year.
To sum up, play this game only if you enjoy rollercoaster rides.
It's fair game now, but I believe EVs have a lot more factors (quick, frunk/storage, low maintenance , cheaper to run with home charging, fresh UI etc) in their favor than not (need to own home+garage to charge cheaply, limited charging options while road tripping). So despite all the doom and gloom around EVs, they will continue to grow significantly even if at a lower rate than the past couple years.
All EVs are down now. Rivian is down due to that and then some, primarily due to it's cash burn rate in a very tough environment. The only way for Rivian to dig itself out of this is continued focus on BOM reduction and growing demand across all it's existing and upcoming products. I believe they're doing all they can, but only time can tell whether that's enough. My hunch is that it will be, which is why I'm in.
So that's the risk/reward profile for this game most of us are playing. If you're okay with losing all of what you've invested in this company, you'll sleep a lot better and maybe even have some fun playing.
What gives me hope in their ability to cut cost is the attached table, which shows that they improved their gross margin per vehicle by 80-90k, when they focused on getting EDV to GM positive, while deliveries nearly doubled. If they can pull off something similar with R1 by the end of 2024, along with beating the drum on R2, the narrative could begin to change. The stock market is very fickle and can turn on a dime. If the stock can get up into the 20s they'll have a much easier time raising more capital, which they'll obviously need for the foreseeable future, at least until R2/R3 ramp to multiple 100k deliveries per year.
To sum up, play this game only if you enjoy rollercoaster rides.
Dustyshades
Well-Known Member
Personally, I don’t think you should buy auto stocks and expect them to perform like tech growth stocks. Rivian will pretty much always be limited to the auto segment because of their core competencies (and arguably only part of the auto segment due to their market niche). I think they’ll survive and thrive in that niche, but they will never have the same reach and potential for growth that Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, etc have because those guys can get into so many different markets and products.
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ksurfier
Well-Known Member
great point, oil production peaked in 2018 and is falling by ~3% per year, that’s a huge X factor and potential upside for EVs.
UnsungZero_OldTimeAdMan
Well-Known Member
BEV prices will come down through economy of scale, expansion of mineral mining and exploration, smarter engineering choices, advancements in manufacturing tech and good old corner cutting. Need example? Look at price history of panel TVs. A 27" LCD TV once cost $5k and came with a separate box that was the brain and power supply. Most industry insiders agree, that fossil fuels will still be the predominant energy source for transportation for next 30-35. We're still in the early phase of electrification. But I'm done giving large chunk of my income to oil industry who rakes in record profits even during hard times (for everyone else). Or, car dealerships/mechanics for costly repairs & maintenance.I feel the novelty and excitement of owning an EV is wearing off, due to most early adopters probably already owning one. To take it to the next level, EVs will now need to compete with ICE cars, and be truly competitive in terms of price, features, convenience, ease of use etc etc. ie all the reasons that have historically made a successful vehicle.
It's fair game now, but I believe EVs have a lot more factors (quick, frunk/storage, low maintenance , cheaper to run with home charging, fresh UI etc) in their favor than not (need to own home+garage to charge cheaply, limited charging options while road tripping). So despite all the doom and gloom around EVs, they will continue to grow significantly even if at a lower rate than the past couple years.
All EVs are down now. Rivian is down due to that and then some, primarily due to it's cash burn rate in a very tough environment. The only way for Rivian to dig itself out of this is continued focus on BOM reduction and growing demand across all it's existing and upcoming products. I believe they're doing all they can, but only time can tell whether that's enough. My hunch is that it will be, which is why I'm in.
So that's the risk/reward profile for this game most of us are playing. If you're okay with losing all of what you've invested in this company, you'll sleep a lot better and maybe even have some fun playing.
What gives me hope in their ability to cut cost is the attached table, which shows that they improved their gross margin per vehicle by 80-90k, when they focused on getting EDV to GM positive, while deliveries nearly doubled. If they can pull off something similar with R1 by the end of 2024, along with beating the drum on R2, the narrative could begin to change. The stock market is very fickle and can turn on a dime. If the stock can get up into the 20s they'll have a much easier time raising more capital, which they'll obviously need for the foreseeable future, at least until R2/R3 ramp to multiple 100k deliveries per year.
To sum up, play this game only if you enjoy rollercoaster rides.
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fyton2v
Well-Known Member
rivianguy
Well-Known Member
Still the best vehicle I've ever driven 2 years in. The R2 and R3 (especially) look like they will probably be winners though they are a few years out yet. I'm loathe to give stock advice but my read is that EV adoption will lag in the US for a number of reasons, but will/is taking off in other major geos. I don't think Rivian is the winner in markets with a lot of price sensitivity (South America, most of Asia) and it's likely the Chinese manufacturers (BYD) will win the low end of the market. That leaves the middle/upper market in wealthier geos which is presently Tesla and everyone else. Doesn't feel like the established carmakers are making any massive inroads there, though the Korean automakers seem to be on the right track. Having driven a number of Teslas and Rivian's I personally don't see any comparison when it comes to SUV's. Tesla simply doesn't have one or at least not one that could capability claim to do any form of offroading at all. So net net it comes down to your belief in the size of the 'real EV SUV' market in the middle to upper range of the market I think.
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