Help end debate: Is it true Rivian was scheduled to begin delivery of R1T in July, without details on infotainment or charging?

[Sean]

Agree with this. Also, the Telsa comparison is lazy as there are very different circumstances around each.

Telsa deserves a lot of praise as they are the only new US car company that's been by any measure successful that has started in the last 50 some years and they kick started EV's.

But their situation at start up and even now is entirely different than Rivian's. Rivian's goals (outside of make EV's) are very different than Telsa's at start-up and even today.

Point being - Rivian needs to be judged on its own merits. But if you are really concerned about *any* risk, a new vehicle manufacturer isn't the place to be because there's really no history to say how any of it turns out with any confidence.

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[timf]

I am sticking with Q2-Q3 2024, that way RJ and Rivian can delight me with a vehicle in late 2023

In all seriousness, I expect R1T to be especially delayed, as its first vehicle for public use. If there are charging performance issues or infotainment issues - it will impact R1T more. What will impact R1S more, IMO, will be the delays that (1) assembly line introduces. I think Rivian has recognized the challenges in scaling production w/ just one assembly line. I think existing assembly line (that isn’t used for lightweight commercial vehicles) will be used 95%+ for R1T, with a handful of R1S being delivered to one-off high profile launch edition customers (social media stars, athletes, billionaires).

R1S “mainstream” delivery will be delayed until the new manufacturing plant (or additional assembly lines) can open up. My armchair quarterback analysis of Tesla is that Tesla can’t manufacture anything with any volume, if it lacks its own assembly line. I don’t think Rivian will have better luck in this regard.

If I truly believe that second plant is necessary for R1S to make it in to non-launch edition customers, then the Q2-Q3 2024 number becomes that much more realistic.

Until then, if I want an R1S, with enough fiberglass, bondo and love from Rich Rebuilds, I can get one today.

I don't see why one plant can't do both R1S and R1T. They have a high degree of commonality so manufacturing both on the same line is trivial. These aren't going to be high volume vehicles starting over $60,000 either, so even if the capacity is only around 1,000 units a week that should be sufficient. The second plant will enable them to bring additional lower cost models (i.e. R2) to market. Much like Model 3 and Model Y for Tesla, those will become the volume models versus the R1 flagship models.

 

[Jay]

I'm a huge Rivian fan, at least as much of a fan as one can be...for a brand that has zero sales

I got to thinking about R1T July 2021 release date (now delayed, as per RJ update last week), and wanted to make sure I understand what buyers would have had for information.

So let's go back to July 1st, 2021. R1T buyers on July 1st...

• Would have had zero details surrounding infotainment
• Would have had zero details surrounding charging speeds or charging performance

Is that sound accurate?

I ask this because I am trying to re-evaluate how long I should expect to wait for a vehicle. Last I knew, we had zero details on charging performance or infotainment, and the release date was just weeks away. I find this incredibly far-fetched; the idea that in just weeks I could be receiving a vehicle, while none of this information was available. People have challenged me. They've asked me why am I pipe dreaming about Rivian deliveries?

Basically, if you are a vendor entering the EV space; what features would you be sure to advertise, demo, show off? Probably the infotainment and charging performance (among others), right? I think this is a fair assessment. I know we know about speaker choices (Meridian), we know about the foldout camping deal, but what do we really know....that involves software or electrical engineering?

I have been challenged by others, and their reasoning has been pretty hard to disagree with. They have challenged me and basically expressed that;

• Rivian infotainment must be unreliable/slow/lacking in features/crashing. Basically not ready for production, and not something that Rivian is comfortable with sharing to the outside world - as it would give people (good or bad) impressions - and potentially even have an impact on fundraising abilities. Fair argument...
• Rivian charging performance must be ....... And that is why they can't share more details. Fill in the blank with your own ideas. They have suggested slow, unreliable, and with the latest Bolt and Kona recalls - potentially trying to engineer around electrical fire risks. Basically we don't know, because the details don't exist.
• It is significant that the launch wasn't delayed until just last week, mid-Month..in the same month that Rivian was hoping to start shipping. Put yourself in a Rivian potential-customers shoe. There were R1T customers who were just hours or days from being able to receive their vehicles, and these details were absent.

In their experience with product launches, the lack of details and timing suggests;

• This isn't a chip shortage problem. Chip shortages don't stop you from demoing/showcasing your infotainment system or charging performance
• Unstable or poorly performing products (or components within a product) is why details aren't shared
• There are Hail Mary attempts to make this launch happen. A chip shortage wasn't new in July 2021. This was known months ago. This was a; if you can deliver XYZ (performance, features) by ABC date, we can ship in July. The fact the announcement didn't come until mid Month meant RJ was ready to ship in July, until RJ learned something last week. Someone delivered bad news about something (people I chat about my R1S purchase with think it has to be about charging performance and infotainment)
• 2 assembly lines shared between 3, with one line dedicated to commercial vans is not going to allow R1S owners to receive a vehicle in 2021, and probably not in 2022 either....
• The fact they are willing to only showcase....not-important features (as they describe it) that are very rudimentary (like camping stove) should tell us how anxious they are to show off anything. And also show us how....they just don't have the software/electrical stuff figured out

I am taking a moment to reset my expectations, so the Rivian experience isn't a let-down. They have me convinced that while the Rivian looks great from outside, the lack of details surrounding what's inside...and how it charges, should be concerning me more - considering we were just hours...from customers receiving vehicles.

They have me convinced; R1T will not make it to customers before 2022 and R1S before 2023. We have bets on if RJ makes it as CEO past 2021 and 2022. They feel RJ is not showing the commitment needed to deliver what is promised (this comes in the age one of the worlds richest CEO's (Musk) sleeping in his factories to make production goals). Basically...

We've been hearing about this little startup named Rivian for a decade now. We've been getting teased, while nothing of substance is making it to us. Rivian has now ate up more than 10bn in cash, and investors are going to be growing impatient with this 14yr old startup. RJ is in the hot seat, weather he shows it or not. And the fact this his Instagram shows him flying economy on Southwest gives us a glimpse of his own lack of comfort in his future (future finances, current finances).

We're really reading in between lines here, but I can't say that the criticism is unfair.
My spouse read the RJ note from last week and saw the comment about 7000 employees on staff, and she laughed saying; "what are they doing everyday? Just sitting around?"

Did you really mean to end the debate or start the debate???

 

[MIG]

You keep saying “14yr old startup”, but Rivian is only 12yrs old and they only started focusing on EV’s in 2011. Then they didn’t announce the R1T/R1S until Dec 2017. So if we’re being honest, we haven’t really been “teased” for even 4 years. Patience.

They weren't manufacturing anything beyond hand-built prototypes until the last year or so.

I don't see why one plant can't do both R1S and R1T. They have a high degree of commonality so manufacturing both on the same line is trivial. These aren't going to be high volume vehicles starting over $60,000 either, so even if the capacity is only around 1,000 units a week that should be sufficient. The second plant will enable them to bring additional lower cost models (i.e. R2) to market. Much like Model 3 and Model Y for Tesla, those will become the volume models versus the R1 flagship models.

There's zero indication that they need a second plant for R1S; this is just speculation from bored people.

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