Has anyone on this forum received a confirmed delivery date?

[Guy]

I was at my local Ikea this last weekend and as I stated (which you clearly didn't read) 80+% of the *items on the floor* were labeled as 'Currently Unavailable'. The shelves where you could just grab things and go were also incredibly bare compared to usual Ikea standards.

Perhaps you've never been involved in supply chain mechanics. Apple has sourced their materials years in advance and at any given time are installing chips in phones that they received WELL before the actual assembly took place. They're also, literally, one of the biggest companies in the world with dedicated third-party integrated supply chains. They can afford to throw 5x as much at a cargo container and just pass it onto the consumer, because Apple diehards will pay nearly any price for their shiny new phone.

You're right, the *absolute necessities* in the supply chain are functioning as normal, because they've been prioritized. I would love a solid explanation for how GDP is any indicator of the issues being highlighted, especially given that GDP also incorporates consumer spending, which is up and is a direct contributing factor to shortages when the shortages are already in existence.

I'll take my experience of completely replacing literally everything I own that wasn't a personal affect over the last month. It's been a complete shitshow. I can't even write this message from the comfy chair I ordered 2 motnhs ago that is currently scheduled to be delivered in June. Luckily, I can write it from the couch I ordered by asking the sales staff "What do you have that's in stock? Ok, I'll take that", because the couch I wanted wouldn't deliver until *August* of *2022*.

I'm pretty sure any cursory google search would show you that I'm not the only one experiencing these issues. Go walk into a furniture store and talk to the sales staff. Go try to schedule an electrician. Try to go buy more than 2 1-gallon containers of water per customer, or more than 1 pack of toilet paper per customer. :eyeroll:

The supply chain issues started over a year ago. So some delays like waiting 8 months for a specific couch have been worked through. Rivian delayed starting manufacture by many months earlier this year so that should cover the bulk of issues. They are recruiting and already have 2000 staff at their factory so again that should not be a limiting factor for utilising 25% of the factory capacity (no one is expecting 100% utilization yet).

Apple was an example of what many companies are managing to do, but their designs are not planned out multiple years in the future and the chips are new each year so their manufacturing partners can’t just work off a stockpile.

As for the IKEA example, obviously each store is different and you seem to be having multiple shortages, but don’t extrapolate that to everyone. It seems an awful lot is being priorisited including $160k Lucid Air cars! We will just have to wait and see what happens. I want Rivian to succeed and the pressure will be on them, and I just don’t want them to throw away the two year lead they have over Lucid and Kia for an EV three row SUV and the near year lead over Ford for an EV truck. But competition is coming.

As for the comment people made about retrofitting a factory. There are many advantages to having a structure, roof and services already in place. You would take time, and risk fitting those in with a new build.

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[Inkedsphynx]

I'm not sure how much more clear I could have been in saying that I'm experiencing up to 12 month delays on ordering furniture within the last 2 weeks. Worked through?

I love the idea that Apple takes a design from nothing to in your hands in a year. It simply doesn't work like that. I wish it did.

You clearly have no grasp on the reality of now and have no interest in educating yourself. Sad to see, given your stated profession.

 

[Dbeglor]

You make some good points and we all want Rivian to succeed. I agree the Lucid factory has a smaller annual capacity. The original argument was that some people thought Rivian would take multiple years to get to even 40k a year. Normal is being expanded because they do expect within two years (maybe sooner) to get to their annual run rate which is at least 10k per month of R1s (125k a year plus 75k max of the EDV as per the S1). so if they expect to be at 10k by end 2023/early 2024 you would expect a reasonable run rate before then and 50k total units over two years is generous.
retrofitting does take time but is vastly cheaper than a new factory and more environmentally friendly. A new factory is easily a $1b cost, whereas Normal was bought for $16 million plus some equipment. If it was such a bad deal then they shouldn't have done it, but I still think it was a good choice.

I agree the hubs will be impacted by labour, but choosing overly elaborate refits,like the old cinema in some coastal Californian town adds to the problem. Whereas leasing a space at say the King of Prussia Mallon suburban Philadelphia gets you to 5 million people at limited cost and time. If it is good enough for Tesla, Apple, Gucci and various expensive Swiss watch brands then I believe it is good enough for Rivian.

I am listening to others, just as I hope you are, and take some of the pints made. I also highlight facts to support a quicker ramp rate. At the end of the day we are arguing over say 15k or 35k made next year (plus EDVs) and in a world making 60+ million vehicles including 12 million in the US (including over half a million EVs domestically) annually then 20k extra doesn’t seem very many.
I would like to see clearer communication on deliveries, and status of hubs/service centers and RAN. That communication is not impacted by the pandemic which everyone else is working through as life does continue, even at my company which is a multinational drug manufacturer (somehow we have managed).

The annual run rate for R1's with the current factory is only 65k (other 85k of 150k total is EDVs per the S1). What isn't clear is how the 50k expansion to 200k will be divided between the lines (and they may not even know at this point which is fine).

So, they've said that by the end of 2023, they hope to be running full capacity, which for the R1's is about 1,300/week, 5,400/mo and 65k/year (they assume 50 working weeks a year). My personal opinion is that they think they can do 20-25k in 2022 and about 50k in 2023, plus or minus. That gets them through the current backlog, plus some buffer for coming short, or for more orders coming in.

I think it's important to also understand that I don't think the production ramp is entirely correlated to the total possible capacity of the factory. In other words, Lucid has capacity of I think 30k/year, but even if Rivian's factory had installed capacity of 1m, their ramp early on would look very similar (assuming it's still a single line, which is probably impossible in reality, but you get the point). They have said that labor is one of the key constraints to production rate right now, meaning they are only running one shift instead of two. Just like the local restaurant, the labor market is out of whack right now. So even if every other process was going smoothly and there were no other supply constraints, they are still bottlenecked purely by lack of bodies. Lucid may not even need second shifts, because their volumes are much smaller.

The next factory of similar size as Normal is estimated to cost $5 billion actually....

Clearly Rivian is very focused on their brand, and I can't think of anything that would sour that brand more than going into a mall for a Rivian space....Regardless, the Hubs in particular have nothing to do with production or sales right now, so you can think of those on a completely separate parallel process, they aren't holding anything up. Those are investments for sales in 2024 and beyond (they've already sold out through 2023). As far as Service Centers, as far as I can tell, they are going for the lowest hanging fruit on those in terms of location, building and design, because they won't be very customer facing. I know the one here in Austin is somewhere I hope I never visit.

The communication bit is a whole different animal, and has been litigated ad nauseum on the forums already, so I'll avoid that one, only to say it's not really a fair comparison of what is effectively still a start up to your multinational drug company that's been operating for who knows how long. Rivian is a 12 year old startup that just so happens to be public and worth $100+b, but very much a startup (I'd argue they've only been a real company for about 6-9 months). They have doubled or tripled the staff in the past year while juggling all other things, so it's not surprising that they aren't humming on all cylinders yet.

And again, the pandemic does affect communication indirectly, in that it cluster f!$@'s everything that you want to be communicating about. It's easy to say silence is a bad choice, but neither is repeatedly guessing and being wrong, or throwing hands up and saying, we have no idea. They would be equally scorched for that approach. A lot of the grief is understandable, but I'm not convinced much could be done much differently (the one clear exception being the handful of people that were told deliveries in Oct/Nov when it was clear weeks/months ago it wasn't going to be the case, those just slipped through the cracks). Everyone is clearly different, but I'd prefer no communication at all until there is something to communicate and I can rely on it (with reasonable variation).

 

[Guy]

I'm not sure how much more clear I could have been in saying that I'm experiencing up to 12 month delays on ordering furniture within the last 2 weeks. Worked through?

I love the idea that Apple takes a design from nothing to in your hands in a year. It simply doesn't work like that. I wish it did.

You clearly have no grasp on the reality of now and have no interest in educating yourself. Sad to see, given your stated profession.

I didn’t say they only take a year but the A15 chip wasn’t designed 5 years ago. They are innovating quickly and their suppliers are working quickly. We will see what happens.

Sorry I couldn’t keep up with your furniture woes, first eight months now 12 months. You are having bad luck. Amazes me how anyone else is managing building or buying things. Plenty of sofas in IKEA yesterday when I checked!

Shame you seem to take such offense to people having a slightly different view (20k a year in 2022) and get abusive. Oh well.

 

[Guy]

The annual run rate for R1's with the current factory is only 65k (other 85k of 150k total is EDVs per the S1). What isn't clear is how the 50k expansion to 200k will be divided between the lines (and they may not even know at this point which is fine).

So, they've said that by the end of 2023, they hope to be running full capacity, which for the R1's is about 1,300/week, 5,400/mo and 65k/year (they assume 50 working weeks a year). My personal opinion is that they think they can do 20-25k in 2022 and about 50k in 2023, plus or minus. That gets them through the current backlog, plus some buffer for coming short, or for more orders coming in.

I think it's important to also understand that I don't think the production ramp is entirely correlated to the total possible capacity of the factory. In other words, Lucid has capacity of I think 30k/year, but even if Rivian's factory had installed capacity of 1m, their ramp early on would look very similar (assuming it's still a single line, which is probably impossible in reality, but you get the point). They have said that labor is one of the key constraints to production rate right now, meaning they are only running one shift instead of two. Just like the local restaurant, the labor market is out of whack right now. So even if every other process was going smoothly and there were no other supply constraints, they are still bottlenecked purely by lack of bodies. Lucid may not even need second shifts, because their volumes are much smaller.

The next factory of similar size as Normal is estimated to cost $5 billion actually....

Clearly Rivian is very focused on their brand, and I can't think of anything that would sour that brand more than going into a mall for a Rivian space....Regardless, the Hubs in particular have nothing to do with production or sales right now, so you can think of those on a completely separate parallel process, they aren't holding anything up. Those are investments for sales in 2024 and beyond (they've already sold out through 2023). As far as Service Centers, as far as I can tell, they are going for the lowest hanging fruit on those in terms of location, building and design, because they won't be very customer facing. I know the one here in Austin is somewhere I hope I never visit.

The communication bit is a whole different animal, and has been litigated ad nauseum on the forums already, so I'll avoid that one, only to say it's not really a fair comparison of what is effectively still a start up to your multinational drug company that's been operating for who knows how long. Rivian is a 12 year old startup that just so happens to be public and worth $100+b, but very much a startup (I'd argue they've only been a real company for about 6-9 months). They have doubled or tripled the staff in the past year while juggling all other things, so it's not surprising that they aren't humming on all cylinders yet.

And again, the pandemic does affect communication indirectly, in that it cluster f!$@'s everything that you want to be communicating about. It's easy to say silence is a bad choice, but neither is repeatedly guessing and being wrong, or throwing hands up and saying, we have no idea. They would be equally scorched for that approach. A lot of the grief is understandable, but I'm not convinced much could be done much differently (the one clear exception being the handful of people that were told deliveries in Oct/Nov when it was clear weeks/months ago it wasn't going to be the case, those just slipped through the cracks). Everyone is clearly different, but I'd prefer no communication at all until there is something to communicate and I can rely on it (with reasonable variation).

Thanks for your reply. Full of data and facts. You seem to agree that they will satisfy preorder holders by early/mid 2023. I hoped by q1 wowed so not far apart. I thought EDV was 65-75k a year, so that leaves even with some increase at least 100k for the R1s.

$5billion for a new factory, certainly makes retrofitting a good option. Hopefully they can use the old Honda factory in the UK (production finished this year) if they want a European factory and the UK works For them post Brexit (not sure if it does).

 

[Dbeglor]

Thanks for your reply. Full of data and facts. You seem to agree that they will satisfy preorder holders by early/mid 2023. I hoped by q1 wowed so not far apart. I thought EDV was 65-75k a year, so that leaves even with some increase at least 100k for the R1s.

$5billion for a new factory, certainly makes retrofitting a good option. Hopefully they can use the old Honda factory in the UK (production finished this year) if they want a European factory and theUK works.

Probably late 2023 (for the 55k total as of last update), but that's already an old bogey because orders have surely increased. I wouldn't be surprised if they are close to 100k as of 12/31.

That would make for a nice friendly poll for the holidays that would be unlikely to fire up opposing factions.

 

[Guy]

Probably late 2023 (for the 55k total as of last update), but that's already an old bogey because orders have surely increased. I wouldn't be surprised if they are close to 100k as of 12/31.

That would make for a nice friendly poll for the holidays that would be unlikely to fire up opposing factions.

Yes I do wonder how many reservations increase by. It was around 7k in October. 100k seems optimistic but we will see. There is the demand out there (not even touched international yet or a third model). The future is bright, just hope they manage it.

 

[Dbeglor]

Yes I do wonder how many reservations increase by. It was around 7k in October. 100k seems optimistic but we will see. There is the demand out there (not even touched international yet or a third model). The future is bright, just hope they manage it.

It would be a steep ramp, but they just had the first real public marketing ever with the IPO and it's now a production vehicle and not a projected one.

I'm actually surprised they don't lower the reservation deposit to $100, given that they don't need the cash now. Their stock price will be driven by that reservation number as much/more than anything for a while.

 

[astonius]

Just got this email:

Thank you for your continued support of Rivian. We can’t wait to get you behind the wheel of your R1T. Now that vehicle production is ramping up at our factory in Normal, IL, and we’re building out our service and support in your region, we’re able to share an updated delivery window.

Your Launch Edition R1T delivery window is now April - May 2022.

Please note that this delivery window is based on your current configuration, delivery location, and preorder date.

Your preorder is a vote for finding better ways of doing things on a planet that needs all of us to think big and innovate. If you have any questions, please reach out to us.

Thank you again for being on this journey with us.

— Team Rivian


* Rivian preorder holders with an Adventure or Explore Package will receive their vehicle delivery window before the end of the year.

Happy to see communication. Not happy with the timeline.

 

[twinprice]

I just got my email from Rivian stating:
"Your Launch Edition R1S delivery window is now June - July 2022."
For reference, in January of 2020, I configured a Cap Granite LE R1S with 20" Wheels & Off road Package.

 

[SFsoundguy]

Just got an email from Rivian my Dec 2018 reservation R1S LT received a delivery window of April - May 2022

 

[jeeden]

Yup, R1S delivery window now July-Sept 2022 ..... dagger


LE blue with 20 inch wheels and roof crossbars, deposit August 2020

 

[Guy]

Yup, R1S delivery window now July-Sept 2022 ..... dagger

LE for you?

 

[snomad]

LE pre-order holder from Jun 2019.
Delivery window now April-May 2022.

 

[jeeden]

LE for you?

LE blue with 20 inch wheels and roof crossbars, deposit August 2020

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