F-150 Lightning Pre-production underway

[LoneStar]

Figured many will find interesting tid-bits in this article even if not cross-shopping the F-150 Lightning.

Eerily similar factory photos to what Rivian's IL facility looks like (all bright, clean, well-lit)

Ford Begins Pre-Production Of F-150 Lightning: 150,000 Reserved (insideevs.com)

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[Dark-Fx]

Eerily similar factory photos to what Rivian's IL facility looks like (all bright, clean, well-lit)

New auto plants tend to all look alike.

 

[R_1_T]

I wonder if the Lightning or ICE F-150 will be prioritized when it comes to shared components. The semiconductor shortage is likely to get worse before it gets better. The massive downside of commodity component strategy is rearing its ugly head.

 

[PastyPilgrim]

I wonder if the Lightning or ICE F-150 will be prioritized when it comes to shared components. The semiconductor shortage is likely to get worse before it gets better. The massive downside of commodity component strategy is rearing its ugly head.

Prioritizing lightning would be smart since this is a brand new market that they have an opportunity to lead.

 

[LoneStar]

Its crazy how the entire planet, every modern nation, every economy was blind-sided by a chip shortage coming out of Covid.

 

[Gerolsteiner]

Prioritizing lightning would be smart since this is a brand new market that they have an opportunity to lead.

Agreed, and presumably there should be fewer chips needed given the centralization of controls/systems within an EV, so more sales booked per chip acquired.

W/r/t OP’s comment about the factory if anyone finds themselves in Detroit and has a chance to take the public tour of F-150 production at River Rouge I highly recommend it.

 

[R_1_T]

Agreed, and presumably there should be fewer chips needed given the centralization of controls/systems within an EV, so more sales booked per chip acquired.

W/r/t OP’s comment about the factory if anyone finds themselves in Detroit and has a chance to take the public tour of F-150 production at River Rouge I highly recommend it.

Keep in mind that the bulk of the interior electrical components will be common with an ICE F-150 along with other vehicles within their lineup.

 

[R_1_T]

Its crazy how the entire planet, every modern nation, every economy was blind-sided by a chip shortage coming out of Covid.

This is what happens when production of certain products are centralized to a certain country or region. I saw supply chain disruptions during the time after the Japan tsunami as well.

 

[Billyk24]

Ford has over 150 000 reservations. Aiming to produce 80 000 a year.

 

[Pharmanml]

Agreed, and presumably there should be fewer chips needed given the centralization of controls/systems within an EV, so more sales booked per chip acquired.

W/r/t OP’s comment about the factory if anyone finds themselves in Detroit and has a chance to take the public tour of F-150 production at River Rouge I highly recommend it.

According to this article each EV requires significantly more chips than a similar ICE…
Major automakers fear the global chip shortage could persist for some time
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/06/vw-...are|com.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard

 

[LoneStar]

Ford has over 150 000 reservations. Aiming to produce 80 000 a year.

Making the reservation charge only $100 certainly adds (substantially) to the "soft" commitments whereas Rivian's $1,000 deposit requires some higher degree of intent to purchase. Hard to say what the 10:1 means in terms of speculating how many R1T paid reservations there are. Likely in the neighborhood of 40k - 80k reservations.

 

[Atlrivian]

Prioritizing lightning would be smart since this is a brand new market that they have an opportunity to lead.

Manufacturers are prioritizing higher cost/margin vehicles (can't remember my reference). This should include the Lightning.

 

[EVTrucking]

They plan 15K in 2022, 55 K in 2023 and 80K after. They should have the second generation lightening in 2025 (2026 model year).

I have recently read Ford is looking to boost the production ramp some but it seems that reserving a Lightning now would be meaningless.

I think the same could be said for the R1T/R1S.

My thinking is that folks reserving now will get their vehicles at about the same or even after full production is reached.

 

[Max]

I have recently read Ford is looking to boost the production ramp some but it seems that reserving a Lightning now would be meaningless.

I think the same could be said for the R1T/R1S.

My thinking is that folks reserving now will get their vehicles at about the same or even after full production is reached.

Boost in Ford production is a bit of a joke. They went from 7500 in 2022 to 15000. unless their ICE F series take a serious hit, they won't take BEVs seriously.

I believe, people reserving late do much better on multiple accounts:

1 - Their total wait is shorter the closer they are to production when they reserve.
2 - They less likely to have to deal with production issues
3 - They are more likely to be able to get service and deal with problems because others have had those problems before.

If you have any interest in Lightning or Cybertruck, I would make the reservation. It is only $100. Keep all reservation and as more information becomes available about each, you will be able to make an informed decision with more options. Once you make a purchase, cancel other reservations.

Cybertruck has the most unknowns with regards to when, how and if. However once all the big IF's line up and they start production, it will be fast. for 1.5 million reservation, even with 500,000 cancellation, they have to produce more than 250K a year minimum. They won't start unless they can produce 4680s cheaply , safely and fast. So if you need something soon, CT may be out at least 3-4 years if you make a reservation now.

I think if you make a reservation for all three now, you will get the Rivian first, Lightning second and CT third.


Edit: A new interview with Ford suggests 15K 2022 estimate may not be correct:

 

[Coast2Coast]

Boost in Ford production is a bit of a joke. They went from 7500 in 2022 to 15000. unless their ICE F series take a serious hit, they won't take BEVs seriously.

I believe, people reserving late do much better on multiple accounts:

1 - Their total wait is shorter the closer they are to production when they reserve.
2 - They less likely to have to deal with production issues
3 - They are more likely to be able to get service and deal with problems because others have had those problems before.

If you have any interest in Lightning or Cybertruck, I would make the reservation. It is only $100. Keep all reservation and as more information becomes available about each, you will be able to make an informed decision with more options. Once you make a purchase, cancel other reservations.

Cybertruck has the most unknowns with regards to when, how and if. However once all the big IF's line up and they start production, it will be fast. for 1.5 million reservation, even with 500,000 cancellation, they have to produce more than 250K a year minimum. They won't start unless they can produce 4680s cheaply , safely and fast. So if you need something soon, CT may be out at least 3-4 years if you make a reservation now.

I think if you make a reservation for all three now, you will get the Rivian first, Lightning second and CT third.

And one more huge way in which late reservers benefit is battery technology. RJ has already said that Rivian is working on the next generation of battery tech and, more likely, there is a third generation of battery tech in research and development. That doesn't mean the first generation will be bad, but subsequent generations will be better, and persons who order later will be more likely to benefit from improvements in battery chemistry and battery management systems.

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