Guy

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I got a guide call this morning. March/April ETA for my LE R1S (Limestone/Black Mt/20s, Dec 2018 preorder, Austin).
Good for you, i thought Q2 for R1S LEs since it is Q1 for R1T LEs and the S is about three months behind on starting production. I hope they add to their website location of hubs and service centers (opened and to be open soon) as well as the RAN,
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FLARIVIAN

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Greetings. In a chat just now, the CS agent indicated they are adding a estimated time of delivery feature to the configuration tool by the end of the year…
And so the next feature that will be added will probably be a new platform to estimate when the estimated time of delivery function will be operational.
 

svet-am

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You can actual calculate your own delivery date right now. Just drop the following into a Microsoft Excel sheet and be sure to change the cell format to "date"

=RANDBETWEEN(DATE(2022, 1, 1),DATE(2099, 12, 31))
 

Max

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I wonder if this has something to do with Lightning orders expected to open by end of January or Silverado reveal happening in January. If Rivian leave the math to me, I would say my Lightning would be ready way before my Rivian and I could jump ship. But if they make up a date that is closer to my expected lightening delivery, I will likely to stick around. It may all be damage control. Or it may just be decent customer service. We will find out.
 
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smiesguy

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I got a guide call this morning. March/April ETA for my LE R1S (Limestone/Black Mt/20s, Dec 2018 preorder, Austin).



Congrats very exciting! Guess its time to start picking up the spam calls. Do you have the off-road package selected as well?
 

SeaGeo

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g to do with Lightning orders expected to open by end of January or Silverado reveal happening in January. If Rivian leave the math to me, I would say my Lightning would be ready way before my Rivian and I could jump ship. But if they make up a date that is closer to my expected ligh
It'd help me. I'd be floored if I wouldn't be able to get "my" Lightning before my Rivian. Just doing the guess work of whether I want to deal with flipping a lightning.
 

tx_rivian

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It'd help me. I'd be floored if I wouldn't be able to get "my" Lightning before my Rivian. Just doing the guess work of whether I want to deal with flipping a lightning.
I will be most likely
 

tx_rivian

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I got a guide call this morning. March/April ETA for my LE R1S (Limestone/Black Mt/20s, Dec 2018 preorder, Austin).
Congratulations, Skyler. What's your odds on that staying true?
 

LaunchGreen

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So guess this points to them trying to complete all LE deliveries by Spring 2022.

What's confounding is the website still says "Deliveries start Jan 2022", when that is inaccurate. I can't see a non-LE preorder getting theirs prior to an LE, or I guess unless its an early-early order but just not LE trim?

In any case, for someone who went to the website now and ordered, they are being misled if they think they will get theirs in Jan 2022. They should just remove the date.
Based on their previous interpretations, it’s probably deliveries to employee non-LE that start in Jan
 

RivianXpress

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https://electrek.co/2021/11/19/ford...-buyers-which-means-itll-be-sold-out-forever/

Ford is going hard on electrification, with a solid showing at this year’s LA Auto Show and big reservation numbers for the F-150 Lightning. Ford has declared its intent to be the biggest EV maker in the world with a big increase in production in the next few years.

But even with all of that, it’s still not enough. By our estimates, with Ford’s planned production ramp, F-150s won’t be readily available without a wait for the better part of the decade.



Ford has upped its production plans for the F-150 before and announced big investments into adding EV production capacity. But as we’ve said before, it looks like the company’s going to have to do it again.

Currently, Ford is planning to build 15,000 F-150s in 2022, 55,000 in 2023, and 80,000 in 2024. After that, the company will shift to its new EV-only TE1 truck platform.

But that’s 150,000 trucks on the current platform, and at the beginning of this month, Ford shared that it has 160,000 reservations for the F-150 Lightning, up from 120,000 in August. And Ford now says the number is “approaching 200,000,” but that’s a fuzzy number so let’s stick with 160,000 for now.

So not only is Ford’s entire production plan for this model sold out three years ahead of time, but in the last 2.5 months, it has sold at least six months’ worth of its 2024 run rate. And that’s despite the reservation holders knowing that they have a three-year wait ahead of them.

But that’s not all. Ford confirmed to us at the LA Auto Show that this 160,000 number does not include commercial/fleet customers through Ford’s “Ford Pro” program. An entire trim level of the F-150 Lightning, the base $39,974 “Pro” model, is aimed towards these customers.


Not that speed is a main selling point for a work truck, but the sucker does have plenty of power
Ford also said it would not preferentially treat high-optioned orders, and rather produce a mix of option levels. Surely Ford will want to keep its fleet customers happy, so some sales will be diverted in that direction.

Even if we account for attrition in reservations – people who reserved on a lark and end up getting a different vehicle instead – it still seems like demand is much higher than planned production. Surely, when the truck hits the road and word of mouth gets out – and when reservation lead time is shorter (will it ever be?) – more orders will materialize from those who are currently on the sidelines.

So put all of this together, and you’ve got a situation where, with current production plans, this truck is going to be sold out for the foreseeable future.

It’s a better problem to have than lack of demand, but it’s still a problem. Those customers are ready to jump in but just don’t have a product available to them, and might end up being lost to another company.

Or, worse, they’ll buy a gas-powered vehicle that will keep polluting the atmosphere for another decade. According to two surveys, the majority of Lightning reservation holders will be coming over from gas vehicles, which means the more Lightnings that get sold, the less gas we will burn, which is better for everyone.

But in the mentioned timeframe, despite incredible demand for the Lightning, Ford will continue selling millions of gas F-150s, each of which will emit about 100 tons of carbon over their lifetimes, along with other pollutants that form smog and harm health. And these higher-polluting vehicles should be the first priority to get off the road for pollution reduction purposes, rather than the small hatchbacks that most companies started their EV transitions with.

Ford states that it wants to ramp as quickly as demand will allow (there’s that “demand” word again), but that the main limiting factor is the availability of components for electrification. Ford was coy when we asked which specific components the company was talking about… but we all know it’s the batteries.

Ford is spending tens of billions on battery and electric truck production, so it’s preparing for this eventuality. But it still feels like its production numbers are a significant underestimate of the amount of demand that could be out there for a more available vehicle.

Ford did state Thursday that it plans to produce 600,000 EVs in 2023, which means just under 10% of those will be Lightnings. Currently, the gas F-150 makes up about 15-20% of Ford’s total vehicle production (900k out of 5-6 million globally), which means the Lightning will be a lower proportion of Ford’s EV sales than the F-150 is of its overall sales. Given that Ford has fewer planned electric models than gas models for 2023, one would think the Lightning could make up a larger proportion than the F-150, so there’s a disconnect there.

But this 600k number is new as of yesterday, and Ford’s Lightning production plan is a few months old now. We hope to see another announced rise in planned Lightning production – preferably before 2025 – and we think an announcement might come soon on that front, as Ford seems confident about its EV efforts in our discussions.

Because otherwise, you’re just never going to see one of these trucks on a dealer lot. They’ll all be pre-ordered years ahead of time.
 

Ginny

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Greetings. In a chat just now, the CS agent indicated they are adding a estimated time of delivery feature to the configuration tool by the end of the year…
If delivery times are being added to configuration tool, wouldn't that apply to future configurations as we all have already configured? Hope I am wrong
 

TessP100D

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how I see it playing out.....

not yet...

not yet...

not yet...

Lock in your configuration!!!!

***3 months of radio silence***

not yet

not yet

not yet

not yet

not yet


WE'RE IN YOUR DRIVEWAY!!!!
Dreams for all. Not reality.
 

TessP100D

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https://electrek.co/2021/11/19/ford...-buyers-which-means-itll-be-sold-out-forever/

Ford is going hard on electrification, with a solid showing at this year’s LA Auto Show and big reservation numbers for the F-150 Lightning. Ford has declared its intent to be the biggest EV maker in the world with a big increase in production in the next few years.

But even with all of that, it’s still not enough. By our estimates, with Ford’s planned production ramp, F-150s won’t be readily available without a wait for the better part of the decade.



Ford has upped its production plans for the F-150 before and announced big investments into adding EV production capacity. But as we’ve said before, it looks like the company’s going to have to do it again.

Currently, Ford is planning to build 15,000 F-150s in 2022, 55,000 in 2023, and 80,000 in 2024. After that, the company will shift to its new EV-only TE1 truck platform.

But that’s 150,000 trucks on the current platform, and at the beginning of this month, Ford shared that it has 160,000 reservations for the F-150 Lightning, up from 120,000 in August. And Ford now says the number is “approaching 200,000,” but that’s a fuzzy number so let’s stick with 160,000 for now.

So not only is Ford’s entire production plan for this model sold out three years ahead of time, but in the last 2.5 months, it has sold at least six months’ worth of its 2024 run rate. And that’s despite the reservation holders knowing that they have a three-year wait ahead of them.

But that’s not all. Ford confirmed to us at the LA Auto Show that this 160,000 number does not include commercial/fleet customers through Ford’s “Ford Pro” program. An entire trim level of the F-150 Lightning, the base $39,974 “Pro” model, is aimed towards these customers.


Not that speed is a main selling point for a work truck, but the sucker does have plenty of power
Ford also said it would not preferentially treat high-optioned orders, and rather produce a mix of option levels. Surely Ford will want to keep its fleet customers happy, so some sales will be diverted in that direction.

Even if we account for attrition in reservations – people who reserved on a lark and end up getting a different vehicle instead – it still seems like demand is much higher than planned production. Surely, when the truck hits the road and word of mouth gets out – and when reservation lead time is shorter (will it ever be?) – more orders will materialize from those who are currently on the sidelines.

So put all of this together, and you’ve got a situation where, with current production plans, this truck is going to be sold out for the foreseeable future.

It’s a better problem to have than lack of demand, but it’s still a problem. Those customers are ready to jump in but just don’t have a product available to them, and might end up being lost to another company.

Or, worse, they’ll buy a gas-powered vehicle that will keep polluting the atmosphere for another decade. According to two surveys, the majority of Lightning reservation holders will be coming over from gas vehicles, which means the more Lightnings that get sold, the less gas we will burn, which is better for everyone.

But in the mentioned timeframe, despite incredible demand for the Lightning, Ford will continue selling millions of gas F-150s, each of which will emit about 100 tons of carbon over their lifetimes, along with other pollutants that form smog and harm health. And these higher-polluting vehicles should be the first priority to get off the road for pollution reduction purposes, rather than the small hatchbacks that most companies started their EV transitions with.

Ford states that it wants to ramp as quickly as demand will allow (there’s that “demand” word again), but that the main limiting factor is the availability of components for electrification. Ford was coy when we asked which specific components the company was talking about… but we all know it’s the batteries.

Ford is spending tens of billions on battery and electric truck production, so it’s preparing for this eventuality. But it still feels like its production numbers are a significant underestimate of the amount of demand that could be out there for a more available vehicle.

Ford did state Thursday that it plans to produce 600,000 EVs in 2023, which means just under 10% of those will be Lightnings. Currently, the gas F-150 makes up about 15-20% of Ford’s total vehicle production (900k out of 5-6 million globally), which means the Lightning will be a lower proportion of Ford’s EV sales than the F-150 is of its overall sales. Given that Ford has fewer planned electric models than gas models for 2023, one would think the Lightning could make up a larger proportion than the F-150, so there’s a disconnect there.

But this 600k number is new as of yesterday, and Ford’s Lightning production plan is a few months old now. We hope to see another announced rise in planned Lightning production – preferably before 2025 – and we think an announcement might come soon on that front, as Ford seems confident about its EV efforts in our discussions.

Because otherwise, you’re just never going to see one of these trucks on a dealer lot. They’ll all be pre-ordered years ahead of time.
Well said. Good read.
 
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