DSP (Directed Share Program) to purchase Rivian IPO shares - now live via web portal

[LoneStar]

it’s probably only a 50% chance that it’s at IPO value 12-mos from now.

Is that equivalent to saying either it Will or it Won't be. ?

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[Dbeglor]

Is that equivalent to saying either it Will or it Won't be. ?

I think it's virtually 100% probability it won't be at IPO value then. Question is whether it's higher or lower...

 

[Diddy123]

I’ll almost certainly get the 175 shares offered but it’s probably only a 50% chance that it’s at IPO value 12-mos from now. I also miss Vegas so why not.

So you're mad that you're not being offered the same discount as institutional investors/underwriters...
AND you're mad that you're limited to 175 shares...even though you think it's a bad deal and Rivian is being greedy...
AND you previously stated that you didn't want to invest because the brother of a forum member was expecting unreasonable returns...

But now you're still planning on maxing out on the offering. You sir, are mysterious ?

 

[jjwolf120]

it’s probably only a 50% chance that it’s at IPO value 12-mos from now.

Is that equivalent to saying either it Will or it Won't be. ?

That statement really needs to be reworked into a Yogiism. How about.

There is a 90% chance that the stock won't be at its IPO value in 12 months. The other half of the time it will be lower.

 

[Chris S]

Has there ever been another company IPO @ ~$60B market cap before even generating any material revenue or ramping to mass production?

I'm very bullish on their prospects but have a very hard time justifying their desired valuation at this time.

 

[electruck]

Has there ever been another company IPO @ ~$60B market cap before even generating any material revenue or ramping to mass production?

I'm very bullish on their prospects but have a very hard time justifying their desired valuation at this time.

Well, at least they've sold more than 1 vehicle per billion of valuation....

 

[St Bernard]

.

Has there ever been another company IPO @ ~$60B market cap before even generating any material revenue or ramping to mass production?

I'm very bullish on their prospects but have a very hard time justifying their desired valuation at this time.

The Street gives Lucid a $56b valuation and they have less than 30% of the reservations of RIVIAN.

 

[Temerarius]

It definitely will not be a short term hold, I expect a surge, and then a dip with a slow long haul back up and above the IPO... and then Amazon will buy it out.

 

[moosehead]

TSLA has shot up over 1900% since early October 2018. A $10k investment then would be worth $200k today, just three years later. I'm not saying that RIVN will perform anywhere near that well, just that $10k in the IPO round has substantial potential.

Despite my grumpyness and a massive price expectation for the IPO, agreed on the potential for Rivian. I’m not one to wait in line for anything, let alone indefinitely, and before seeing the product.

However, IMO to their credit, Tesla is an anomaly as first mover and with their tailwinds of virtually no competition and a super charged capital market. Tesla produced 510k vehicles in 2020, and sold nearly 500k units to go along with real EBITDA. Feels like tougher conditions for Rivian given CT, Lightning, German EV’s, and other forthcoming, let alone the hurdle of a vehicle manufacturer startup.

 

[Coast2Coast]

Tesla dominates the EV market, and no one else comes close. Now, it's a race to be Number Two and that's all about being a fast follower - faster than anyone else. I like Rivian's chances.

Lucid's ramp-up is a long time coming, and its vehicles don't yet target the segments that sell the most vehicles. Ford, GM & Stellantis have huge legacy overhangs, and it will be a while before they turn their giant corporations into efficient EV operations.

So, if Rivian can get Normal up to full production and break ground on a new vehicle and battery plant in the next 2-3 years, it will be in great shape. I like Rivian's chances.

 

[BigE]

Remember this IPO? I’ll wait for the Rivian dust to settle.

 

[Zoidz]

Ford, GM & Stellantis have huge legacy overhangs, and it will be a while before they turn their giant corporations into efficient EV operations.

Related to this, Ford and GM have huge legacy ICE Truck customers that will demand ICE for the next 3-7 years. I frequently hear comments that Rivian is doomed because Ford can takeover the EV Truck market any time they want to because they have massive manufacturing capacity for F150s. Not gonna happen. Ford sells 900,000 F150s a year. That ICE demand will continue for years.

 

[Zoidz]

Remember this IPO? I’ll wait for the Rivian dust to settle.

Comparing Robinhood IPO to Rivian IPO? They are pretty much polar opposite business segments. A better analytical approach is to look at the history of all IPOs which helps to judge IPO "market sentiment" in general, and then look deeper at business segments comparable to Rivian such as tech, industrials, etc. IPOScoop.com has tons of data.

 

[Dbeglor]

Tesla dominates the EV market, and no one else comes close. Now, it's a race to be Number Two and that's all about being a fast follower - faster than anyone else. I like Rivian's chances.

Lucid's ramp-up is a long time coming, and its vehicles don't yet target the segments that sell the most vehicles. Ford, GM & Stellantis have huge legacy overhangs, and it will be a while before they turn their giant corporations into efficient EV operations.

So, if Rivian can get Normal up to full production and break ground on a new vehicle and battery plant in the next 2-3 years, it will be in great shape. I like Rivian's chances.

Tesla dominates a currently insignificant EV market. The huge risk to Tesla is they don't currently make a form factor that is attractive to the general public. Over time, as the EV market becomes just the "auto market", nothing will change the fact that the dominant vehicle types are trucks, SUVs and Crossovers. Tesla dominates the early adopter tech centric market, but without evolution they will be passed up in terms of market share (though this is probably 10+ years away so a ton can change).

 

[Coast2Coast]

2-3% is not insignificant. There's always a lull before the storm, and S-curve and innovation theories always begin with a gradual ramp-up. Then, once a 2-3% market share is realized, a storm has gathered and is about to break loose. That should happen in the next couple of years, 2022-2024. By 2025, we'll be on the cusp of what's called the "early majority" stage.

The trick for EV makers is timing the ramp-up of products and production. Rivian actually bought the old Mitsubishi plant in Normal in 2017, and getting a so-called brownfield plant up and running should be quicker than starting fresh with a greenfield plant. Nonetheless, it's a 2-3 year + timeline to get plants up and running.

That 2-3 year timeline plus S-curve strategizing and competition at home and abroad are what's behind Rivian's IPO timing.

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