ebarke
Well-Known Member
I get what you are saying, but there is still potential for increases in range and efficiency. As an example, I have a 2018 model X 75d, at the time, it was 17K to get the 100d, which added about 30 miles, not worth price, but now the same car gets ~360miles with the same battery pack size. So there is potential that Rivian can make a more efficient motor, or do something with the battery pack chemistry that makes an overall difference in range within a couple of years.Everyone always says "when battery technology gets better". Guess what? This is it. We've reached the pinnacle of 18650/21700 energy density. It's not getting better. The best you can hope for is they throw more batteries at the problem.
Now, Toyota thinks solid state is the next iteration of automotive battery tech, we'll see if that's true in 2026. But Rivian has put all their eggs into cylinder cells, they aren't switching horses until the end of the decade at the earliest. Tesla is just now getting their 4580 series into production and it's been 11 years since Model S and 15 years since Roadster gen1.
As much as I would love to see solid state batteries going into cars, I don't see that happening anytime soon. Toyota just puts out a press release to keep them from being irrelevant, they will not have anything by 2026, maybe 2036!
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