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Demand for used EV's.....It's only just beginning.

nc10

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The rise of brand new, second hand electric vehicles
(this story is posted both at Wired and ArsTechnica)

No surprise in this forum, 2nd hand EV's are popular. Some semi-interesting quotes:

David Cottrell got his $39,999 Tesla Model Y last February. The compact electric hatchback was a fantastic car, he says..................... By June they had sold for $51,000—a tidy profit.

Things have gotten extra strange in electric vehicle land, where used cars seem to be getting newer. Figures tracked by Recurrent, a company that follows the battery health of EVs, and the data firm Marketcheck suggest that last year, the majority of used electric cars for sale were four or five years old. Today, just under a third of used EVs are three years old.

Carvana, a company that buys and sells used cars online, says 90 percent of its electric vehicles are in the process of being purchased, compared to 45 percent just over a month ago.

The rise of the new used car started with the microchip shortage, which began to seriously affect car production in 2021. Today’s vehicles use at least 100 chips each to control their complex electronic systems, and electric vehicles, which are especially complicated, can use as many as 1,000.


Also hitting home on this forum:
"And here’s the big problem for electrics: Some new cars that were supposed to enter the market in 2020 and 2021 were never made. That means fewer used cars trickling down the market this year, and next year, and the next. "
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lostpacket

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These next 3-5 years are going to be absolutely wild in the EV (and ICE) market. It feels like a weird little bit of consolation to have a pre-order despite the continued wait.

I think my main concern for now though is charging infra keeping up with the number of EVs being added. But I feel like charging stations can ramp more quickly given their relative simplicity compared to a vehicle.
 

LaunchGreen

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These next 3-5 years are going to be absolutely wild in the EV (and ICE) market. It feels like a weird little bit of consolation to have a pre-order despite the continued wait.

I think my main concern for now though is charging infra keeping up with the number of EVs being added. But I feel like charging stations can ramp more quickly given their relative simplicity compared to a vehicle.

At some point you gotta this gas stations will see the writing on the wall and add them.
 

lostpacket

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At some point you gotta this gas stations will see the writing on the wall and add them.
100%

I think a lot of the chargers they are building in Texas are going to be gas stations and rest stops. It makes a lot of sense for any business like that -- a captive audience with disposable incomes waiting for their EV to charge = $$
 

zipzag

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At some point you gotta this gas stations will see the writing on the wall and add them.
Gas stations are in the convenience store business. They have no natural advantage in EV charging beyond drivers' habits. The problem gas stations may have is the EV turnover is too small to support their business model.

Any grocery store that has lot space that is not considering installing fast charging is not preparing for what is coming. Grocery and other larger shopping areas benefit from a 20-40 minute EV charging stop.

In the midwest Tesla has put a lot of chargers at Hy-Vee grocery stores. If I lived near one of these locations and could not have home charging it would be painless to charge and shop twice a week.
 

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These next 3-5 years are going to be absolutely wild in the EV (and ICE) market. It feels like a weird little bit of consolation to have a pre-order despite the continued wait.

I think my main concern for now though is charging infra keeping up with the number of EVs being added. But I feel like charging stations can ramp more quickly given their relative simplicity compared to a vehicle.
Charging stations have a lot of bureaucracy problems too though. Permitting, electrical usage agreements, etc, with there being a lot of different municipalities to have to deal with, it can get confusing fast.
 

av8or

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I agree the next 3-5 years is gonna be a wild ride. Many fleets have been unable to keep their normal turnover rate and are getting way behind. This alone is adding thousands of vehicles to the backlog list. Production can’t just get back to normal and catch up, they will need to exceed pre-pandemic production by a lot to even have a chance.

Then add into the mix the bias towards BEVs at current.

I don’t see supply for BEVs being able to keep up with demand for many years.

I have an id4 on order plus the R1T, hopefully I’ll get at least one of them.🤷‍♂️
 

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At some point you gotta this gas stations will see the writing on the wall and add them.
Sadly, we still have a lot of idiots out there that have claimed if their favored gas stations puts in charger installs (note: adds them, not replace the gas pumps), they'll stop going to that station. That definitely puts in a slight scare to those station owners who highly depend on those customers for the sale of the convenience items they sell.
 
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LaunchGreen

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Gas stations are in the convenience store business. They have no natural advantage in EV charging beyond drivers' habits. The problem gas stations may have is the EV turnover is too small to support their business model.

Any grocery store that has lot space that is not considering installing fast charging is not preparing for what is coming. Grocery and other larger shopping areas benefit from a 20-40 minute EV charging stop.

In the midwest Tesla has put a lot of chargers at Hy-Vee grocery stores. If I lived near one of these locations and could not have home charging it would be painless to charge and shop twice a week.

Their advantages are:

1. Real estate - they are on the most frequently driven roads and are easily accessible.

2. They have retail space to monetize a captive EV audience during the charge. Many also have restaurants, etc attached.

3. Network effect: they have a large number of locations across states / nationally that lends itself to loyalty programs, etc.

I get the point on turnover, however. Long term they will have to figure out how to turn their $6 average purchase into $20.
 

zipzag

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Their advantages are:

1. Real estate - they are on the most frequently driven roads and are easily accessible.

2. They have retail space to monetize a captive EV audience during the charge. Many also have restaurants, etc attached.

3. Network effect: they have a large number of locations across states / nationally that lends itself to loyalty programs, etc.

I get the point on turnover, however. Long term they will have to figure out how to turn their $6 average purchase into $20.
If they could increase their average add on sale to $20 they would do it now.

Original "first wave" gas stations are almost entirely gone. The one closests to me is a starbucks now. Most have been torn down. These were almost all sole proprietor gas and car repair. These were replaced by the gas and convience store model. Those can't survive on on much lower traffic. Although larger ones can convert from the current pull through to pull in and handle a lot more cars. But then the question becomes whether they can economically connect to five megawatt electrical service.
 
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LaunchGreen

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If they could increase their average add on sale to $20 they would do it now.

Original "first wave" gas stations are almost entirely gone. The one closets to me is a starbucks now. Most have been torn down. These were almost all sole proprietor gas and car repair. These were replaced by the gas and convience store model. Those can't survive on on much lower traffic. Although larger ones can convert from the current pull through to pull in and handle a lot more cars. But then the question becomes whether they can economically connect to five megawatt electrical service.

They currently have a captive audience for a few minutes and with EVs it’s 10x that.

I guess we will see how this goes - it’s going to be a fun transformation imo, although likely slower than most people on this forum think. I’ll probably be pretty old before we get those metaverse connected chargers we are all waiting for.
 

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That point about the underlying (or overhead) basic electricity service infrastructure is spot-on. This weekend in So.Cal nearby Riverside was a local TV story that businesses are abandoning locations and newly constructed mega-warehouses are underutilized because Edison has maxxed-out available grid power in certain industrial areas. This is something few of us ever stop to contemplate but it's only going to get more vital for our nation's power grids to be modernized.
 
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nc10

nc10

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Any grocery store that has lot space that is not considering installing fast charging is not preparing for what is coming. Grocery and other larger shopping areas benefit from a 20-40 minute EV charging stop.
I don't have my EV yet, but for myself, I don't see a big need for charging at grocery stores or malls. Maybe if it was free or really cheap it would be a draw, but not sure the logistics/timing works unless you have high double digit or triple digit number of charging spots. I'd expect a majority of charging will be at home, or at work if employers offer charging, as has been mentioned here. I will need to use charging stations on long trips, so near interstates and hwys, hotels, sites of interest, airports, maybe restaurants ie, where gas stations are today.
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