Delivery date estimator tool based on where you are in line

[Jehorton]

I wanted to chat with a CSR to ask about my guide assignment, and here is how that conversation went:

Wasn't the first time this happened lol

I’d do the same. Imagine how many people are asking this question when these guys have absolutely no clue.

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[johnbro23]

How do you know your model-specific order number? The only order number I've ever seen mixed R1T and R1S.

Unless you're just guessing at the rough proportion of orders for each model, and assuming that holds true throughout the ordering process, you don't really know your "place" in line. That's to say nothing of the fact that place in line is only loosely linked to order number and seems to have little to do with delivery timing.

I'm just hoping they start making and delivering FE R1Ses without the underbody shield soon. I've gotta be pretty high on the list for those!

Polls on the forums show that early orders were 60-70% R1T, then starting in 2020 the split is closer to 50/50…makes sense because R1T is more of an early adopter vehicle and R1S is more mainstream soccer mom. I think RJ commented on one of the calls that the mix was close to 50/50.

 

[johnbro23]

My guide gave me my order number. You need that to complete delivery and they gave me my VIN number

What was the order number and when did you order?

 

[888tom888]

Ordered Nov 2019. Long order number

 

[Yossarian]

I think I found a slightly more accurate technique. This one says "your R1T Max will be delivered sometime in 2025."

 

[tierneyalvin]

Is there just no way to even get a vague delivery window from Rivian? I have an April R1S pre-order so I figure I'm a decent way out, but I'd like a window to help decide if I should accept my Model X pre-order that's due Q1 2023 or not...

 

[paariv]

Is there just no way to even get a vague delivery window from Rivian? I have an April R1S pre-order so I figure I'm a decent way out, but I'd like a window to help decide if I should accept my Model X pre-order that's due Q1 2023 or not...

They have said you'll get new windows by the end of summer/this month. Reality is that nobody knows. You'll probably have a better idea in Q12023 of how well the ramp is going, so I'd hold on to both reservations for as long as you can. At the very least, there's no reason to cancel the R1S order until you get, and like, the Tesla.

I would be shocked if you get your R1S in early 2023, but if you can reject the Tesla and hold on for a few more months, you may get the Rivian mid-late 2023.

 

[zigzagzap]

Good work ........but the Rivian website says the experience is "a simple, transparent, digital experience" are they misrepresenting the process? I'm not sure how I missed this page until now.
https://rivian.com/experience/purchasing

I hope your numbers are right and I see my R1S before the end of the year. My order date is 1/1/19 but I can't find an order number in the transparent system.

 

[riviansmoke]

I did this math to figure out where I am in line, and it's broadly applicable to any reservation holder so figured I'd share. You can determine what # order you are for either the R1S or R1T (I'm order #14,000 or so for R1T based on a 4/25/21 reservation), and see when Rivian will have produced that many (for me, they'll have produced around 14,000 R1Ts by end of Q3 22, so I should in theory be an early to mid-Q4 22 delivery). I used this info to figure out I'm probably getting a vehicle 8 months sooner if I switch from R1S to R1T, so since I was on the fence I made the switch. Factors such as delivery location, options, and random chance (i.e. explore getting delivered before launch edition) have been significant factors to date, but will be less of a factor going forward as Rivian scales (more operational delivery centers) and fixes bottlenecks (i.e. Ocean Coast fix, introduction of manual tonneau, fix of powered tonneau)

I think the assumptions are pretty good and detailed - I'm a financial analyst for my day job, I analyze public companies. But please let me know if you have any input - I probably missed something!

The detail behind the assumptions:

1. Production: We know total production by quarter. While they don't disclose how that breaks down by model, we have a very good idea at least through Q2'22. With a fair degree of certainty, I can say thru June 2022, they've produced about 7,900 R1Ts and an immaterial amount of R1S and EDVs.
   • R1: We know that R1S customer deliveries began in early Sept'22 with a very slow ramp of employee deliveries before that. This means R1S is essentially an immaterial amount of units through Q3'22. R1 production should grow independent of EDV since its a completely different line and different supply chain, so I'm assuming they can increase their R1 production by about 2k units each quarter going forward, as has been the case in Q1 and Q2'22. The mix of R1S within R1S+R1T should probably hit 50% in Q1 when RJ has referred to a big inflection in R1S for 1H'23.
   • EDV: They don't give any detail on EDV units, and I think that's mostly to cover up a painfully slow ramp. They're asked every earnings call to give the number, and RJ typically doesn't answer, instead focusing on more significant supply chain challenges for EDV vs R1, and the progress they're making in the pilot. I think it's a fair assumption that EDV has been relatively immaterial to date. My back of the envelope math on their disclosure that they've delivered 430k packages for their pilot suggests around 100 vehicles in that pilot; pointing to a very small fleet to date. RJ said on the Q1 call in regards to the 25k production target for 2022 that about 1/3 would be EDV, but it seems they're falling behind that and it seems impossible to hit.
2. Orders: We know net orders for R1S+R1T based on various disclosures in their IPO prospectus and shareholder letters. Their weekly order rate was extremely high in Q4'22, corresponding to the timing of the IPO. The earliest order disclosure I'm aware of is from 9/30/21 at 48k orders. I'm using "rivian" google trends to make a guess on the order rate prior to that. This forum has a few polls as to the timing of orders, but I think that's a less reliable source because once the thread gets buried people stop responding to the poll. Maybe they had 15k orders by the end of 2019, 14 months post the initial introduction.. maybe hit a lull in 2020.. then picked back up in 2021 as we started to see pre-production units.

Would be interested in any input from others in the forum!

Link to Google Sheets

Not too far off from the total vehicles produced in Q3 revealed today. Would be nice to get a breakdown of R1T/S, EDV but looks good. Hopefully the trend will stick, I’m a long ways off with an August reservation but this atleast gives a rough idea of where I can expect to see something. Thanks!

 

[johnbro23]

Not too far off from the total vehicles produced in Q3 revealed today. Would be nice to get a breakdown of R1T/S, EDV but looks good. Hopefully the trend will stick, I’m a long ways off with an August reservation but this atleast gives a rough idea of where I can expect to see something. Thanks!

Yea, I'm happy with these numbers, just a hair above what I had estimated. Getting tough to estimate EDV as that is probably a significant component now. I updated the spreadsheet with the actuals.

 

[Mister Person]

There have been several comments made (by reviewers that have talked to Rivian, and by Rivian employees) that the demand is significantly weighted towards the R1S. I think that starting in 2Q23 they will be producing more R1S than R1T.

 

[diehlryan]

Where do you find your order number? We ordered an R1S in Feb 2020. The config summary URL has 42745. I don't think we were order 45K+ at that time. My R1T ordered in April 22 is a 9 digit number.

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