Delivery date estimator tool based on where you are in line

[johnbro23]

I did this math to figure out where I am in line, and it's broadly applicable to any reservation holder so figured I'd share. You can determine what # order you are for either the R1S or R1T (I'm order #14,000 or so for R1T based on a 4/25/21 reservation), and see when Rivian will have produced that many (for me, they'll have produced around 14,000 R1Ts by end of Q3 22, so I should in theory be an early to mid-Q4 22 delivery). I used this info to figure out I'm probably getting a vehicle 8 months sooner if I switch from R1S to R1T, so since I was on the fence I made the switch. Factors such as delivery location, options, and random chance (i.e. explore getting delivered before launch edition) have been significant factors to date, but will be less of a factor going forward as Rivian scales (more operational delivery centers) and fixes bottlenecks (i.e. Ocean Coast fix, introduction of manual tonneau, fix of powered tonneau)

I think the assumptions are pretty good and detailed - I'm a financial analyst for my day job, I analyze public companies. But please let me know if you have any input - I probably missed something!

The detail behind the assumptions:

1. Production: We know total production by quarter. While they don't disclose how that breaks down by model, we have a very good idea at least through Q2'22. With a fair degree of certainty, I can say thru June 2022, they've produced about 7,900 R1Ts and an immaterial amount of R1S and EDVs.
   • R1: We know that R1S customer deliveries began in early Sept'22 with a very slow ramp of employee deliveries before that. This means R1S is essentially an immaterial amount of units through Q3'22. R1 production should grow independent of EDV since its a completely different line and different supply chain, so I'm assuming they can increase their R1 production by about 2k units each quarter going forward, as has been the case in Q1 and Q2'22. The mix of R1S within R1S+R1T should probably hit 50% in Q1 when RJ has referred to a big inflection in R1S for 1H'23.
   • EDV: They don't give any detail on EDV units, and I think that's mostly to cover up a painfully slow ramp. They're asked every earnings call to give the number, and RJ typically doesn't answer, instead focusing on more significant supply chain challenges for EDV vs R1, and the progress they're making in the pilot. I think it's a fair assumption that EDV has been relatively immaterial to date. My back of the envelope math on their disclosure that they've delivered 430k packages for their pilot suggests around 100 vehicles in that pilot; pointing to a very small fleet to date. RJ said on the Q1 call in regards to the 25k production target for 2022 that about 1/3 would be EDV, but it seems they're falling behind that and it seems impossible to hit.
2. Orders: We know net orders for R1S+R1T based on various disclosures in their IPO prospectus and shareholder letters. Their weekly order rate was extremely high in Q4'22, corresponding to the timing of the IPO. The earliest order disclosure I'm aware of is from 9/30/21 at 48k orders. I'm using "rivian" google trends to make a guess on the order rate prior to that. This forum has a few polls as to the timing of orders, but I think that's a less reliable source because once the thread gets buried people stop responding to the poll. Maybe they had 15k orders by the end of 2019, 14 months post the initial introduction.. maybe hit a lull in 2020.. then picked back up in 2021 as we started to see pre-production units.

Would be interested in any input from others in the forum!

Link to Google Sheets

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[shandel]

Cool analysis. I'm trying to understand it so have a few questions.
1 - In the spreadsheet at the bottom, you have orders@4/25, cancels, max pack and employees. What does Cancels mean? For R1S, wouldn't cancels be subtracted from the 4/25 number and not added? I'm sure I'm not understanding what you mean by it, so it would be helpful if you explain what you mean by it.

2 - Same question about Max Pack? What does that mean in the context of the R1S total?

3 - If the estimate of 18k orders in front of you for R1S, then that would put you in Q323, correct?

Thanks for the clarification! BTW, I have a 4/1/21 R1S order so am very interested in this analysis.

 

[johnbro23]

Cool analysis. I'm trying to understand it so have a few questions.
1 - In the spreadsheet at the bottom, you have orders@4/25, cancels, max pack and employees. What does Cancels mean? For R1S, wouldn't cancels be subtracted from the 4/25 number and not added? I'm sure I'm not understanding what you mean by it, so it would be helpful if you explain what you mean by it.

2 - Same question about Max Pack? What does that mean in the context of the R1S total?

3 - If the estimate of 18k orders in front of you for R1S, then that would put you in Q323, correct?

Thanks for the clarification! BTW, I have a 4/1/21 R1S order so am very interested in this analysis.

1. If they had 17k orders on 4/25/21 in this example, some people out of that cohort will ultimately cancel meaning you're more like #15k in line, not #17k (simplifying to isolate the cancellations). Good catch on R1S, I should have subtracted and not added - fixed in the Google Sheets.

2. My configuration is for the large pack, so I'm ahead in the line compared to everyone with a max pack configuration. So we should take those max pack configurations out of the order total since they aren't a factor for me getting my vehicle. Same thing can be said if you've configured the powered tonneau, which is the only tonneau option being produced now.

3. After fixing the mistake you pointed out in #1, the estimate would be that a 4/25 order is #13k in line for R1S. You were reading it right though, that would put your delivery at the end of Q2.

 

[Riviot]

There's already a more accurate way to determine your place in line and delivery estimate:

 

[johnbro23]

I carried this math forward to Q4'23, and interestingly, it seems optimistic to say you'd get delivery by end of 2023 if you reserve now - this is the time frame Rivian quotes on their website now. Too optimistic by at least 1 quarter, pretty typical of Rivian's promises to date. It assumes that their production is 91% of planned 150k/yr capacity in Normal by Q4'23, up from 12% in Q2'22. 80-90% is where Tesla typically runs.

 

[shandel]

1. If they had 17k orders on 4/25/21 in this example, some people out of that cohort will ultimately cancel meaning you're more like #15k in line, not #17k (simplifying to isolate the cancellations). Good catch on R1S, I should have subtracted and not added - fixed in the Google Sheets.

2. My configuration is for the large pack, so I'm ahead in the line compared to everyone with a max pack configuration. So we should take those max pack configurations out of the order total since they aren't a factor for me getting my vehicle. Same thing can be said if you've configured the powered tonneau, which is the only tonneau option being produced now.

3. After fixing the mistake you pointed out in #1, the estimate would be that a 4/25 order is #13k in line for R1S. You were reading it right though, that would put your delivery at the end of Q2.

Thanks for the clarifications. So Q2 does look likely based on that ramp for April '21 orders. Good to see!

 

[Jac]

Are you thinking orders from locations too distant from Rivian service centers are too few to include as another “place in line” adjustment factor?

 

[SFsoundguy]

I did this math to figure out where I am in line, and it's broadly applicable to any reservation holder so figured I'd share. You can determine what # order you are for either the R1S or R1T (I'm order #14,000 or so for R1T based on a 4/25/21 reservation), and see when Rivian will have produced that many (for me, they'll have produced around 14,000 R1Ts by end of Q3 22, so I should in theory be an early to mid-Q4 22 delivery). I used this info to figure out I'm probably getting a vehicle 8 months sooner if I switch from R1S to R1T, so since I was on the fence I made the switch. Factors such as delivery location, options, and random chance (i.e. explore getting delivered before launch edition) have been significant factors to date, but will be less of a factor going forward as Rivian scales (more operational delivery centers) and fixes bottlenecks (i.e. Ocean Coast fix, introduction of manual tonneau, fix of powered tonneau)

I think the assumptions are pretty good and detailed - I'm a financial analyst for my day job, I analyze public companies. But please let me know if you have any input - I probably missed something!

The detail behind the assumptions:

1. Production: We know total production by quarter. While they don't disclose how that breaks down by model, we have a very good idea at least through Q2'22. With a fair degree of certainty, I can say thru June 2022, they've produced about 7,900 R1Ts and an immaterial amount of R1S and EDVs.
   • R1: We know that R1S customer deliveries began in early Sept'22 with a very slow ramp of employee deliveries before that. This means R1S is essentially an immaterial amount of units through Q3'22. R1 production should grow independent of EDV since its a completely different line and different supply chain, so I'm assuming they can increase their R1 production by about 2k units each quarter going forward, as has been the case in Q1 and Q2'22. The mix of R1S within R1S+R1T should probably hit 50% in Q1 when RJ has referred to a big inflection in R1S for 1H'23.
   • EDV: They don't give any detail on EDV units, and I think that's mostly to cover up a painfully slow ramp. They're asked every earnings call to give the number, and RJ typically doesn't answer, instead focusing on more significant supply chain challenges for EDV vs R1, and the progress they're making in the pilot. I think it's a fair assumption that EDV has been relatively immaterial to date. My back of the envelope math on their disclosure that they've delivered 430k packages for their pilot suggests around 100 vehicles in that pilot; pointing to a very small fleet to date. RJ said on the Q1 call in regards to the 25k production target for 2022 that about 1/3 would be EDV, but it seems they're falling behind that and it seems impossible to hit.
2. Orders: We know net orders for R1S+R1T based on various disclosures in their IPO prospectus and shareholder letters. Their weekly order rate was extremely high in Q4'22, corresponding to the timing of the IPO. The earliest order disclosure I'm aware of is from 9/30/21 at 48k orders. I'm using "rivian" google trends to make a guess on the order rate prior to that. This forum has a few polls as to the timing of orders, but I think that's a less reliable source because once the thread gets buried people stop responding to the poll. Maybe they had 15k orders by the end of 2019, 14 months post the initial introduction.. maybe hit a lull in 2020.. then picked back up in 2021 as we started to see pre-production units.

Would be interested in any input from others in the forum!

Link to Google Sheets

This might be correct if there was a delivery system and based on emails Ive had with my guild he said its based on pre order date, config, & location. He confirmed my pre order has no delays and that he will reach out when it enters production... but it looks like there is no system in place as they are delivering identical R1S orders to customers that placed their ordered in Q3 2021, 18 months ahead of Q4 2018 & Q1 2019 pre ordered.

 

[johnbro23]

Are you thinking orders from locations too distant from Rivian service centers are too few to include as another “place in line” adjustment factor?

I’m thinking that delivery location is going to become an irrelevant factor either now or very soon. They have service centers in most major metro areas now. Also they’ve delivered over 10k R1Ts thru today, roughly 20% of their lifetime R1T order book to date, they’re into the meat of their order book and they don’t have the luxury of cherry picking cheaper delivery locations.

 

[johnbro23]

This might be correct if there was a delivery system and based on emails Ive had with my guild he said its based on pre order date, config, & location. He confirmed my pre order has no delays and that he will reach out when it enters production... but it looks like there is no system in place as they are delivering identical R1S orders to customers that placed their ordered in Q3 2021, 18 months ahead of Q4 2018 & Q1 2019 pre ordered.

Yea, there is certainly more randomness than you’d like to see, but they didn’t have any 2021 orders delivered til about 1/3 of the way thru the tracker linked below. So there is some attempt from Rivian to order deliveries chronologically. That should be improving as more service centers open, they improve their batching (colors, options), shipping logistics.
https://www.rivianforums.com/forum/threads/-delivered-rivians-owners-list-and-stats-enter-yours.978/

 

[888tom888]

interesting stats. And they make for good reading. For what its worth. I"m a LE R1S. My VIN is 665 and my vehicle is at the delivery center. It was built in Aug 22. So I"m thinking they are building more S vehicles than your formula takes into account. By the same token, they have an R1T/S shop with "excess" vehicles that they can offer now. So by some stroke of luck, if you are lucky enough to be contacted by them, you may be able to get your vehicle sooner. My hunch is that those vehicles are selling for post March price$$$$. Just my math.

 

[virgnia_rivian]

I’m thinking that delivery location is going to become an irrelevant factor either now or very soon. They have service centers in most major metro areas now. Also they’ve delivered over 10k R1Ts thru today, roughly 20% of their lifetime R1T order book to date, they’re into the meat of their order book and they don’t have the luxury of cherry picking cheaper delivery locations.

As of now I disagree with this. Looking at the tracker of delivered vehicles here and elsewhere there is a very strong trend towards CA, CO, Washington State, Florida and TX. In the DC metro (6th largest) we don‘t have a service center. The closest one is 90 minutes away in Richmond, VA. CS has repeatedly told me location is a key factor right now. Philly also doesn’t have a service center.

In terms of your numbers I think you’re pretty close to where they’re at. CS has said revised delivery estimates are coming by end of Sept. We shall see if that holds true, but it will give us a good indication of ramp up next year.

 

[paariv]

How do you know your model-specific order number? The only order number I've ever seen mixed R1T and R1S.

Unless you're just guessing at the rough proportion of orders for each model, and assuming that holds true throughout the ordering process, you don't really know your "place" in line. That's to say nothing of the fact that place in line is only loosely linked to order number and seems to have little to do with delivery timing.

I'm just hoping they start making and delivering FE R1Ses without the underbody shield soon. I've gotta be pretty high on the list for those!

 

[LeoH]

I wanted to chat with a CSR to ask about my guide assignment, and here is how that conversation went:

Wasn't the first time this happened lol

 

[888tom888]

My guide gave me my order number. You need that to complete delivery and they gave me my VIN number

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