"day one" of "not a good day" for $RIVN

[Peter del Rio]

Lucid is a completely different company from Rivian. First of all it does not have any real competition and secondly it has designed all of its major components in house and therefore is not susceptible to supply shocks.

Rivian is facing competition from all the major automakers and is susceptible to supply chain bottlenecks with very little purchasing power.

In the course of history there have been over 300 automobile companies created with less than 10% remaining.

You have to ask yourself, are you buying stock because you love Rivian's EV or that you think Rivian will win in the competition to produce EVs and still be profitable.

Please know if I could have any EV it would be the R1S hopefully some day with leather but that doesn't mean I should buy the stock.

Tesla had first mover status, much like Amazon, but now both have moved on from proof of concept to now economies of scale creating a moat of profitability that few can breech.

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[the long way downunder]

You make good points. The (My) bet is that the R1T and R1S are merely the starting lineup. If Tesla announces a boring product line up on Jan 26th, then Rivian is poised to be a move up or move on for Tesla owners as their cars are getting long in the tooth, adding to the demand for Rivian. Call it blind faith or a hunch, but I’m on team RIVN, and taking small positions for last two trading days.

Rivian has announced the R2 and R3 to join the R1, plus three sizes of the EDV (van) and some comments on static power equipment (presumably for home backup batteries) and recreational vehicles (boats and off-highway vehicles.)

The price reflects the here and now of this quarter. I don't think there's any doubt Rivian is well placed to take advantage of numerous expanding market opportunities. Buyers and sellers today are saying they don't think Rivian is going to be as successful as was expected around the IPO – it's up to Rivian management to change that perception (both by communication and by demonstrating they can build a lot of R1Ts and deliver them without big problems such as a recall or quality and reliability issues amongst the early adopters as they deliver the first say 10,000 R1Ts.)

I don't think Tesla is perceived as "long in the tooth" – the Model Y has been fully reinvented, so has the S. Their technology is still considered superior and ahead of the competition. I don't see Tesla losing its advantage till we see the old ICE makers deliver on their EV promises – that will be 2023 and beyond.

Once Rivian builds both truck and SUV and has a population of satisfied customers, they can ramp up production as well as ramping up investor expectations. We might not be about to see a 100% gain in price any time soon, but the expectation for now is the risk of further discounting, trading $63 after hours (1/20/22) as I type there's no apparent buyer support. The original IPO price as $52 (iirc) which might have some merit. I'll sell some $50 puts and try to recoup some losses. My cost basis is improving now there's no expectation of higher prices, but still $75. It's going to take months to recoup these losses, but I'm optimistic the long game is still in play, so these lower prices make for much larger percentage (potential) gains once Rivian gets going.

 

[LeoH]

And Lucid does? I literally don't know *anyone* personally that can afford or is looking at a Rivian. I haven't met many Tesla owners who seem to have any warm and fuzzy feelings toward Lucid. They're just running high on the 500 mile range.

I at least know a decent number of people interested in buying a Rivian. I'm not sure where you're getting it's 40k more than another truck. It's not really reasonable to compare it (or the R1S) to the Maverick or a base Tacoma. As many people have pointed out, it's most direct ICE comparisons are premium vehicles like the Defender, well trimmed F-150s, etc. Which are at a similar price point. It's a pretty small premium over the 1794 Tundra after the tax credit.

I'm not sure where you're suggesting there's a lot of uncertainty in the truck market. It's been the highest selling market in the U.S. for.... basically forever, and the absurd number of reservations for every EV truck that's been announced show significant demand.

The stock market is fickle, and currently *Very* tied to sentiment of specific stocks. Rivian got a bunch of attention for it's IPO, and people have seemingly attached it's value to producing vehicles more than they have Tesla (or Lucid). Or something. I just very much doubt it's due to anyone's perception of demand.

I think Lucid is being protected because no one gives a shit about it. Nice car, but for 170K? Yeah no.

The Ram base is 32K or something like that, and if you are buying the R1T for that reason, it is a 40K jump. Tundra Hybrid is a 40K truck, so even that is 30K less. Is it fair to compare? Sure, if a truck is what you need, and everything else is just extra you do not care about. If you are buying a truck for luxury, then yes sure, not much difference, but I am not sure the biggest slice of truck sales are in the luxury segment ( I am asking seriously, as I have no insight into truck sales other than heavy duty ones that transport multiple vehicles, other than that I just know a lot of contractors with basic trims to haul shit )

There is a lot of uncertainty, during these times no historical data is going to make the predictions any more or less probable. But with jobs fluctuating, so will the demand for vehicles, and i would assume working trucks would suffer.

I do not think the demand is what is driving it, but it would certainly play a role. And honestly, I think the news/rumors of the CT being delayed might eventually push Rivian up again few dollars.

 

[NmbrsNvrLie]

I think that you’re more likely to be right if you just do the polar opposite of what they are talking about on CNBC.



Greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy. Reality is it’s very hard to identify the explicit bottom of any security. If you’re a believer, you should just dollar cost average on the way down and then hold.

That said, pretty hard to really set a floor on what is essentially still a pre-revenue business.

I got in at IPO with a plan to bag a quick gain. Was annoyed I sold at $115 and 48 hours later it runs to $175. No one is great at identifying tops either. Valuation was ludicrous from my perspective and I think it could still contract. They’ve got a lot of execution risk and it will be a rough ride. It took 9 years of Tesla being stagnant before suddenly it became a 100-bagger. Until it finally started ripping and executing, it couldn’t get out of the gate. And Rivian just IPOed at 100X the valuation. I can believe the vision and still take a pass on the equity today.

 

[LeoH]

In 2021, the vehicle sales says that F150+Ram+Silverado=1.8m vehicles roughly. That's number one, two and three sold vehicles in US. So focusing in the truck segment is a great strategy on the surface.

If you look a layer deeper though, the acceptance rate of EV trucks vs ICE trucks is lower percentage than EV sedans vs ICE sedans. In other words, lower percentage of truck buyers will buy EVs than non-truck buyers.

As for Rivian stock price, there's no news or event to sustain buying the stock. Those that want it already owns and without a new catalyst, it doesn't bring in new buyers in a significant amount. Unlike Tesla, part of S&P500, where all the index funds that follow S&P must buy the stock to maintain the similarity to the index with any new monies, Rivian is not there (yet, perhaps but its a long, long time away from it since it must be profitable for at least 4 consecutive quarters then reviewed and considered by S&P).

The next catalyst for Rivian, my sense, is the earnings report for production update and forecast of delivery updates for the year (assuming that they make a forecast...). Or sale of eVan to a large commercial fleet operator. Short of that, it probably will oscillate +/- 10% from here for a while....

Trucks have always been in the top, and with 2 mainstream OEM's offering EV, I am sure competition is that small slice of the big segment got a bit warm.

I share the sentiment of the earning reports, but I also think if the deliveries slip once more, it will need more that 4 consecutive quarters to recover.

 

[Max]

And honestly, I think the news/rumors of the CT being delayed might eventually push Rivian up again few dollars.

Frankly, I think regardless of what Elon says on 26th, even if there is news of more delay for CT, it will be mixed with some design changes, specs or good prices that may not materialize, ……something that brings disappointed, ignored reservation holders back to life and give them hope to keep their reservation.

For every delay news there is a reveal of a new EV that can pull away potential customers from Rivian. I think 22 deliveries are mostly in the bag for Rivian. But once in 23, other options that may not be real yet will seem within reach. At that point, A real Rivian on the ground may have to compete with imaginary EVs that may arrive next year. If Rivian can put it in gear in 2022 with some serious delivery numbers, there will be no stopping it. If it stumbles, 2023 and beyond can get quite competitive.

p.s. Announcement of R2 and R3 or lower trim/price R1 may be a double edge sword. On one hand it will tell investors Rivian is getting ready for mass market and volume selling, on the other hand it may take away some of current R1 reservations (probably not many).

Greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy.

George state of mind:

 

[the long way downunder]

The blood-letting has slowed.
The markets are closing out the week threatening to enter a bear market.
$RIVN is suffering less than $TSLA and $F today.

 

[Glongo]

The blood-letting has slowed.
The markets are closing out the week threatening to enter a bear market.
$RIVN is suffering less than $TSLA and $F today.

What a difference a day makes….

 

[AdamsFan1983]

Woof

 

[stickyfingers]

Woof

I don't know but I see that $RIVN lost $8 today - sitting at $56.57.

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

Put in a $60 buy limit for the same number of shares that I sold at $175. Apparently I set my limit too high

 

[moosehead]

Still having a hard time mentally digesting enterprise value swing here even if just on paper. Tens of $ billions.

The only comparison even in the same universe was last night's Bills Chiefs world wind.

 

[stickyfingers]

Put in a $60 buy limit for the same number of shares that I sold at $175. Apparently I set my limit too high

Revised my buy order for $40. :SMH

 

[Dark-Fx]

Revised my buy order for $40. :SMH

Bottom is probably somewhere around $25 if the market is dropping out like I expect it is. Maybe even lower. I'm still not selling my shares.

*Not financial advice*

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

Bottom is probably somewhere around $25 if the market is dropping out like I expect it is. Maybe even lower. I'm still not selling my shares.

sheesh, you think it's that bad? Black Monday bad?

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