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"day one" of "not a good day" for $RIVN

Glongo

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I think the reason Rivian was hit harder is because of the nature of their product. Their only product is a truck, they do not have a lineup that is endearing to many different slices of society.

How many people are going to buy the R1T to go rogue in the wild? How many are buying because it is a great vehicle that just happens to be a truck platform? How many are buying it because they need it for work?

The first 2 categories will remain constant, the third category is fluctuating like hell. For many reason, of course. The employment market hasn't recovered fully yet, price of materials is still higher than what we are used to, and is it really worth it to spend 40K more on a truck that just happens to be electric?

The last item, I know a lot of people will disagree on top of the hateful position Toyota have placed itself in with their slow EV adoption strategy, the newly announced Hybrid Tundra did catch the eyes of a lot of people who would usually look at Rams and F150s. There is a holding pattern as the MPG for the hybrid hasn't been released yet.


As a personal opinion based on the thoughts above, there is a lot of uncertainty in the demand for the pickup truck market, and a company that only sells them will struggle. I am no expert in the stock market, I barely started a month before Rivian IPO, so I guess i am trying to find excuses :)
You make good points. The (My) bet is that the R1T and R1S are merely the starting lineup. If Tesla announces a boring product line up on Jan 26th, then Rivian is poised to be a move up or move on for Tesla owners as their cars are getting long in the tooth, adding to the demand for Rivian. Call it blind faith or a hunch, but Iā€™m on team RIVN, and taking small positions for last two trading days.
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the long way downunder

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Another session of $RIVN exhibiting unfavorable price behavior. A secular rally, the S&P up 60, $TSLA up, $RIVN down.
Some thoughts:
  1. There's no way of knowing the "why" ā€“ all we can know is the fact: there are sellers below $70.
  2. As far as I know, there's no news (good or bad) and that's a problem for Rivian management to work on their investor communications, to give the market reason to speculate on $RIVN.
  3. The only suspicion I can offer is that Ford owns 12% of $RIVN and will likely report that capital gain in its quarterly earnings, then sell its stake to raise capital for its own business plan (an $11B plan to build four EV factories.)
  4. I find it ironic ā€“ if cold comfort ā€“ that my $F position has increased by higher percentage than $TSLA and my high hopes for $RIVN have come crashing down with the price now inexplicably trending lower with no bottom, no buyers.
  5. The stock price becomes the motivation barometer of a startup. It must be weighing heavily on team morale to see this vote of no confidence in Rivian. Hopefully their expectation is a five or ten year plan and a long career with Rivian.
 

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I think the reason Rivian was hit harder is because of the nature of their product. Their only product is a truck, they do not have a lineup that is endearing to many different slices of society.

How many people are going to buy the R1T to go rogue in the wild? How many are buying because it is a great vehicle that just happens to be a truck platform? How many are buying it because they need it for work?

The first 2 categories will remain constant, the third category is fluctuating like hell. For many reason, of course. The employment market hasn't recovered fully yet, price of materials is still higher than what we are used to, and is it really worth it to spend 40K more on a truck that just happens to be electric?

The last item, I know a lot of people will disagree on top of the hateful position Toyota have placed itself in with their slow EV adoption strategy, the newly announced Hybrid Tundra did catch the eyes of a lot of people who would usually look at Rams and F150s. There is a holding pattern as the MPG for the hybrid hasn't been released yet.


As a personal opinion based on the thoughts above, there is a lot of uncertainty in the demand for the pickup truck market, and a company that only sells them will struggle. I am no expert in the stock market, I barely started a month before Rivian IPO, so I guess i am trying to find excuses :)
In 2021, the vehicle sales says that F150+Ram+Silverado=1.8m vehicles roughly. That's number one, two and three sold vehicles in US. So focusing in the truck segment is a great strategy on the surface.

If you look a layer deeper though, the acceptance rate of EV trucks vs ICE trucks is lower percentage than EV sedans vs ICE sedans. In other words, lower percentage of truck buyers will buy EVs than non-truck buyers.

As for Rivian stock price, there's no news or event to sustain buying the stock. Those that want it already owns and without a new catalyst, it doesn't bring in new buyers in a significant amount. Unlike Tesla, part of S&P500, where all the index funds that follow S&P must buy the stock to maintain the similarity to the index with any new monies, Rivian is not there (yet, perhaps but its a long, long time away from it since it must be profitable for at least 4 consecutive quarters then reviewed and considered by S&P).

The next catalyst for Rivian, my sense, is the earnings report for production update and forecast of delivery updates for the year (assuming that they make a forecast...). Or sale of eVan to a large commercial fleet operator. Short of that, it probably will oscillate +/- 10% from here for a while....
 

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The next earnings report will be predictably bad (we know this), but the production estimate (or lack of ) will tell the tale for the stock.
 

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Is anyone else adding to their position this week? I bought 30 shares at 68 this morning and just put in an order for 100 at 50 just incase it drops that low. I thought for sure we wouldn't be below 70 but here we are.
 

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The only suspicion I can offer is that Ford owns 12% of $RIVN and will likely report that capital gain in its quarterly earnings, then sell its stake to raise capital for its own business plan (an $11B plan to build four EV factories.)
My understanding is that Ford, and others subject to the lock-out, can't sell until May 9, 2022. My hope has been that Rivian will have delivered several thousand R1Ts by then and have changed the direction of the stock.
 

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Is anyone else adding to their position this week? I bought 30 shares at 68 this morning and just put in an order for 100 at 50 just incase it drops that low. I thought for sure we wouldn't be below 70 but here we are.
I bought some more this afternoon -- will keep doing the same as this slide continues.
 

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I bought some more this afternoon -- will keep doing the same as this slide continues.
You're gonna get your chance. Down to $62.90 in after hours.
 

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Limit order placed for 300 shares @ $50.
 

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Limit order placed for 300 shares @ $50.
Couple weeks ago I would have said you were crazy. But $50 is a very realistic possibility now. I'm probably going to sell a couple shares and buy some puts to protect the rest of my stock.
 

Glongo

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Catch a falling knife much?!?!? Well I did add a bit yesterday, but what happens when Ford dumps? If there are no buyers for this small amount of floatā€¦ā€¦ total volume today was only 18.5M shares. Ford owns 10x that I believe. Letā€™s hope for a bunch of good ramp up news prior to Q2 release.
 

Scoiatael

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Catch a falling knife much?!?!? Well I did add a bit yesterday, but what happens when Ford dumps? If there are no buyers for this small amount of floatā€¦ā€¦ total volume today was only 18.5M shares. Ford owns 10x that I believe. Letā€™s hope for a bunch of good ramp up news prior to Q2 release.
March - April delivery dates seem to be where the bulk of non-employee deliveries will start. If they delay any of those, I have a feeling the stock is going to crash hard.
 

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I think the reason Rivian was hit harder is because of the nature of their product. Their only product is a truck, they do not have a lineup that is endearing to many different slices of society.

How many people are going to buy the R1T to go rogue in the wild? How many are buying because it is a great vehicle that just happens to be a truck platform? How many are buying it because they need it for work?

The first 2 categories will remain constant, the third category is fluctuating like hell. For many reason, of course. The employment market hasn't recovered fully yet, price of materials is still higher than what we are used to, and is it really worth it to spend 40K more on a truck that just happens to be electric?

The last item, I know a lot of people will disagree on top of the hateful position Toyota have placed itself in with their slow EV adoption strategy, the newly announced Hybrid Tundra did catch the eyes of a lot of people who would usually look at Rams and F150s. There is a holding pattern as the MPG for the hybrid hasn't been released yet.


As a personal opinion based on the thoughts above, there is a lot of uncertainty in the demand for the pickup truck market, and a company that only sells them will struggle. I am no expert in the stock market, I barely started a month before Rivian IPO, so I guess i am trying to find excuses :)
And Lucid does? I literally don't know *anyone* personally that can afford or is looking at a Rivian. I haven't met many Tesla owners who seem to have any warm and fuzzy feelings toward Lucid. They're just running high on the 500 mile range.

I at least know a decent number of people interested in buying a Rivian. I'm not sure where you're getting it's 40k more than another truck. It's not really reasonable to compare it (or the R1S) to the Maverick or a base Tacoma. As many people have pointed out, it's most direct ICE comparisons are premium vehicles like the Defender, well trimmed F-150s, etc. Which are at a similar price point. It's a pretty small premium over the 1794 Tundra after the tax credit.

I'm not sure where you're suggesting there's a lot of uncertainty in the truck market. It's been the highest selling market in the U.S. for.... basically forever, and the absurd number of reservations for every EV truck that's been announced show significant demand.

The stock market is fickle, and currently *Very* tied to sentiment of specific stocks. Rivian got a bunch of attention for it's IPO, and people have seemingly attached it's value to producing vehicles more than they have Tesla (or Lucid). Or something. I just very much doubt it's due to anyone's perception of demand.
 

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And Lucid does? I literally don't know *anyone* personally that can afford or is looking at a Rivian. I haven't met many Tesla owners who seem to have any warm and fuzzy feelings toward Lucid. They're just running high on the 500 mile range.

I at least know a decent number of people interested in buying a Rivian. I'm not sure where you're getting it's 40k more than another truck. It's not really reasonable to compare it (or the R1S) to the Maverick or a base Tacoma. As many people have pointed out, it's most direct ICE comparisons are premium vehicles like the Defender, well trimmed F-150s, etc. Which are at a similar price point. It's a pretty small premium over the 1794 Tundra after the tax credit.

I'm not sure where you're suggesting there's a lot of uncertainty in the truck market. It's been the highest selling market in the U.S. for.... basically forever, and the absurd number of reservations for every EV truck that's been announced show significant demand.

The stock market is fickle, and currently *Very* tied to sentiment of specific stocks. Rivian got a bunch of attention for it's IPO, and people have seemingly attached it's value to producing vehicles more than they have Tesla (or Lucid). Or something. I just very much doubt it's due to anyone's perception of demand.
Iā€™ve said it before, and Iā€™ll say it againā€¦. Ev stock prices right now are little more than Twitter popularity polls.

Itā€™s fashionable to hate Rivian on Twitter because a couple of guys with big followings masquerading as financial advisors were butt hurt that it ipoā€™d at a high price and limited the upside potential.

So itā€™s been a month long or more campaign on their parts saying that stock is doomed to fall into the 20ā€™s; while simultaneously pumping lucid, maker of a vehicle nobody can afford, in a form factor that nobody wants because these guys loaded the boat on it pre-spac at $10-15.
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