"day one" of "not a good day" for $RIVN

[RideAlong]

A buying opportunity for the bullish.

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[Cassidy_DM]

A buying opportunity for the bullish.

More shares for me! I've doubled my position in the past week. In it for the long haul though, so not worried about a quick turn.

 

[GaryL]

Cathie Wood is just the gift that keeps on giving (for satire, not return on investment.)

An old commodity trader saying "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent"

 

[DuckTruck]

Shooting from the hip... 3 year hold and $150-175 target.

Just a brainless gut feeling.

I like the way you think. I hope your aim is true!

 

[the long way downunder]

An old commodity trader saying "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent"

I know that quote is attributed to Keynes, but I've read almost verbatim observations from the 1800s referenced by Livermore and others. Whether it's tulips or meme stocks, the outcome is consistent to the point of inevitability – money transfers from the many to the few. Do not be one of the many.

 

[the long way downunder]

Today was a gruesome reality check.
The S&P threw away 100 point and $TSLA sniffled but did not flinch while $RIVN took a punch on the chin like it was made out of glass.
I fail to see how or who exists to sell $RIVN below $75 … how did such a volume of sellers even exist? Were there so many speculators buying $RVIN above $80 or $90 who quit at $72 just because of some notional IPO valuation? Where's the "floor" for $RIVN? Is it the equally arbitrary notion of the first IPO strike? Is it $50 plus or minus? Zero?
Well, I'll have a $70K truck that I've paid another $10K in stock losses while waiting … so be it.
For F's sake, nothing … nothing … has changed about Rivian as a business in the last five years, but speculators are disgracing themselves because … what … because of an employment report or some news headline unrelated to the auto industry?
I'm sorry to say that once again $TSLA held the line in a secular market sell off while $RIVN took a disproportionate kick in the nuts. I have traded $RIVN profitability despite its weaknesses for weeks and today wiped out those gains and cleaned my clock. I remain confident Rivian as an EV carmaker will be a successful venture in years to come, but the capital markets are not respecting that future return on capital. I'll hold my position and suffer my losses, but enough is enough. Rivian should allocate some of its resources to investor relations and deal with this negative disposition in the market or we risk seeing the "popular vote" on Rivian expressed as $RIVN trading below its IPO strike price. I see that as a failure in the management of a company that chose to make itself public. So far, Rivian hasn't made a self-inflicted injury, but today indicates there is a very real risk of Rivian being discarded. Amazon can rescind its order, Ford can sell its stake, EV makers can rush in to fill the gap. Rivian executives should take today seriously regardless of their long term dreams of building delivery vans or whatever they imagine to be real in years to come. The EV market is no longer the unchallenged niche player and the backers looking at 1 in 100 returns, now the EV market is the only market and Rivian is not asserting their advantage earned by years of R&D. I think the market today said $TSLA is a solid investment and $RIVN is a high risk gamble for speculators. I wish the Rivian business people understood and worked within this environment but there have been many sessions in January and December that show they are not communicating with the speculative traders in the capital markets. I did not expect to see $RIVN sell off below IPO levels, so now, sadly, all bets are off and $RIVN has no support at any price – these are sellers taking deep losses. If the secular market goes lower, $RIVN will experience more disproportionate losses. If and when the markets go higher, $RIVN will not participate in those gains. It will take hard work and serious effort on the part of Rivian investor relations to convince the market it can achieve revenues anywhere near the levels required to justify its market cap.
Today would have been a normal sell-off and on with normal trading but I question whether the optimistic pricing of $RIVN and the ambition of the EV market haven't turned into a backlash that, if it exists and persists, will take Rivian years to recoup.
Today reminds us that investors and traders are entangled with the "sentiment" of the broad market price behavior. As such, I see $RIVN as a 5 or 10 year investment. But enough is enough. I'll be buying my R1 at a loss and their IPO shares are in their pocket making the truck all that much more expensive. If this were a business deal, I'd quit, but this is a consumer luxury purchase. That form of tenuous relationship is not durable. I conclude the $RIVN was a complete failure and mistake. Even if the price of $RIVN rebounds miraculously to $100 in the next year, the failure is not undone. I can only hope the vehicle manufacturer does far better than the capital market offering. You died today. RIP $RIVN. Long live and may you prosper, Rivian.

 

[St Bernard]

Today was a gruesome reality check.
The S&P threw away 100 point and $TSLA sniffled but did not flinch while $RIVN took a punch on the chin like it was made out of glass.
I fail to see how or who exists to sell $RIVN below $75 … how did such a volume of sellers even exist? Were there so many speculators buying $RVIN above $80 or $90 who quit at $72 just because of some notional IPO valuation? Where's the "floor" for $RIVN? Is it the equally arbitrary notion of the first IPO strike? Is it $50 plus or minus? Zero?
Well, I'll have a $70K truck that I've paid another $10K in stock losses while waiting … so be it.
For F's sake, nothing … nothing … has changed about Rivian as a business in the last five years, but speculators are disgracing themselves because … what … because of an employment report or some news headline unrelated to the auto industry?
I'm sorry to say that once again $TSLA held the line in a secular market sell off while $RIVN took a disproportionate kick in the nuts. I have traded $RIVN profitability despite its weaknesses for weeks and today wiped out those gains and cleaned my clock. I remain confident Rivian as an EV carmaker will be a successful venture in years to come, but the capital markets are not respecting that future return on capital. I'll hold my position and suffer my losses, but enough is enough. Rivian should allocate some of its resources to investor relations and deal with this negative disposition in the market or we risk seeing the "popular vote" on Rivian expressed as $RIVN trading below its IPO strike price. I see that as a failure in the management of a company that chose to make itself public. So far, Rivian hasn't made a self-inflicted injury, but today indicates there is a very real risk of Rivian being discarded. Amazon can rescind its order, Ford can sell its stake, EV makers can rush in to fill the gap. Rivian executives should take today seriously regardless of their long term dreams of building delivery vans or whatever they imagine to be real in years to come. The EV market is no longer the unchallenged niche player and the backers looking at 1 in 100 returns, now the EV market is the only market and Rivian is not asserting their advantage earned by years of R&D. I think the market today said $TSLA is a solid investment and $RIVN is a high risk gamble for speculators. I wish the Rivian business people understood and worked within this environment but there have been many sessions in January and December that show they are not communicating with the speculative traders in the capital markets. I did not expect to see $RIVN sell off below IPO levels, so now, sadly, all bets are off and $RIVN has no support at any price – these are sellers taking deep losses. If the secular market goes lower, $RIVN will experience more disproportionate losses. If and when the markets go higher, $RIVN will not participate in those gains. It will take hard work and serious effort on the part of Rivian investor relations to convince the market it can achieve revenues anywhere near the levels required to justify its market cap.
Today would have been a normal sell-off and on with normal trading but I question whether the optimistic pricing of $RIVN and the ambition of the EV market haven't turned into a backlash that, if it exists and persists, will take Rivian years to recoup.
Today reminds us that investors and traders are entangled with the "sentiment" of the broad market price behavior. As such, I see $RIVN as a 5 or 10 year investment. But enough is enough. I'll be buying my R1 at a loss and their IPO shares are in their pocket making the truck all that much more expensive. If this were a business deal, I'd quit, but this is a consumer luxury purchase. That form of tenuous relationship is not durable. I conclude the $RIVN was a complete failure and mistake. Even if the price of $RIVN rebounds miraculously to $100 in the next year, the failure is not undone. I can only hope the vehicle manufacturer does far better than the capital market offering. You died today. RIP $RIVN. Long live and may you prosper, Rivian.

Good post but why would you expect RIVIAN to more effectively communicate with the Capital Markets? They make nice Cars but do not know how to communicate with anyone. IF they start delivering vehicles in the Spring then maybe the stock recovers.

 

[kurtlikevonnegut]

I'm trying to decide where to set my buy limit to buy back in with some of the earnings from selling. $70 seems like a good number but who knows how much more it's going to drop before the next rebound.

 

[GaryL]

A couple of thoughts. The old commodity trading adage " there is no such thing as a triple bottom" looks to remains valid. Every one that wanted in on the IPO price had an opportunity in those first to test of 78. Now the group of DSP buyers that are a little weaker hand said "I'M not taking a loose on this deal" and sold. so here we are. I too was watching Tesla and was fascinated buy its resilience and I think you hit the nail on the head. Teslas ability to hold revolves around Musk and his army of now wealthy retail shareholders who view there ownership as a social statement. RJ is never going to be that person. Where from here? my personal opinion is ANY delays from here on are going to be VERY expensive to Rivian share holder. $20B of value is riding on trucks in some volume being delivered Sooooon.

 

[Longhorngirl]

As of close of market today, market cap of LCID is greater than RIVN.

 

[ironpig]

As of close of market today, market cap of LCID is greater than RIVN.

The Rivian valuation has always been highly inflated, but the Lucid valuation is insane. At least Rivian has Amazon as a client for delivery trucks... Lucid can't pump out very many cars a year.

 

[SeaGeo]

The Rivian valuation has always been highly inflated, but the Lucid valuation is insane. At least Rivian has Amazon as a client for delivery trucks... Lucid can't pump out very many cars a year.

The weird thing is Lucid taking less hits lately than Rivian.

 

[Hemlock]

Buying stocks is easy. Selling stocks is hard. Being patient during volatility is an almost impossible b_tch.

I had cautioned about buying Rivian stock in the lead-up to the IPO because of valuation concerns. I stayed clear of it.
Ironically, I'm getting my arse handed to me from owning stocks in another young company with a promising future, and no profits. That's how it goes sometimes.
This 'correction' or 'rotation into value' or 'crash' is market-driven. At this stage of the company's development, there's really nothing Rivian executives can do.
Eff me, when an absolutely stellar company like Nvidia (my single largest holding) is now hanging precariously near 28% off its 52-week high because of valuation concerns, you know that start-ups are going to suffer.
If you believe in the companies you're invested in and time is on your side, then these are the occasions when you step back from the screen before you do something you might regret.
Go for a walk, play sports (outside), do anything that keeps you from dwelling on the thousands of dollars vanishing from your portfolio for the next bit. Really, you haven't lost anything unless the company goes bankrupt (unlikely, but it does happen), or you sell too soon (most likely what happens).
Cripes, it's like everyone forgot what life was like before quantitative easing, and what interest rate hikes were. So it makes borrowing money more expensive. It's not the end of the world. This volatility too will pass and people will again remember that the greatest driver of wealth in human history is the stock market.

Man, patience through periods like this can be such an impossible b_tch. To make it worse, I still have to wait another year and a half before I can put the screen down and escape to the trails with our R1T.

 

[SCV-Dave]

While I feel $RIVN is a long term position (you can base that on many examples, including $TSLA), the fact that it has gone so low recently should be concerning. This effects future investment due to valuation (both small and large/institutional) which in turn will effect Rivian growth and expansion opportunities. I hope everyone out there holding a Rivian reservation is investing in this company and supporting it with more than just a reservation. Rivian ought to be at 200K reservations. Ford is already there and isn't shipping any trucks for awhile. I've owned plenty of Ford's, and from what I've seen of the Rivian, well, let's just say... way better than a Ford. They are the only legitimate company actually shipping a EV truck platform.

 

[Dbeglor]

While I feel $RIVN is a long term position (you can base that on many examples, including $TSLA), the fact that it has gone so low recently should be concerning. This effects future investment due to valuation (both small and large/institutional) which in turn will effect Rivian growth and expansion opportunities. I hope everyone out there holding a Rivian reservation is investing in this company and supporting it with more than just a reservation. Rivian ought to be at 200K reservations. Ford is already there and isn't shipping any trucks for awhile. I've owned plenty of Ford's, and from what I've seen of the Rivian, well, let's just say... way better than a Ford. They are the only legitimate company actually shipping a EV truck platform.

It's unrealistic to expect a startup with an average price of around $75k to have 200k reservations at all, much less one that isn't really out in the world in masse yet.

I suspect Ford's number will get cut down quite a bit now that they released pricing that caught a lot of people off guard. I'm sure there were a ton of people that thought they could get 300mi for much less than $77k that it ultimately will cost them. What could offset that however, is Fleet orders, which Rivian does not have the benefit of.

Based on use and price point, I would consider total annual sales (once fully ramped) of 100k R1T/R1S to be exceptionally good, and closer to 75k is perhaps more realistic. That is in line with the planned capacity at Normal for those two vehicles, which is currently 65k plus whatever amount of the 50k expansion is for those vs. the delivery vans.

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